Curious if we see an uptick in severe weather potential later in winter given some of the parallels to years like 2007-08 (which saw significant tornado outbreaks in Jan-Feb including a historic one Feb 5-6) and 2011-12, which saw several significant events in Jan-March, including the back to back Leap Day and major 3/2 tornado events.
Seems like general consensus for a number of forecasts I’ve seen is for western troughing/eastern ridging to become more prevalent Jan-Feb, which would favor that.
We also have a significant drought across much of the SW, which is liable to yield enhanced capping due to EML advection, which is often a caveat in winter given the likelihood of strongly-forced synoptic scale waves.