andyhb

Meanwhile the 12z Euro says nada. Not much of a trough ejection.

Already seeing a few checkmarks starting to be ticked off in terms of a fall severe wx potential early next week across recent guidance. Not sure how far north/east it will extend, but it seems there could be a chance for an anomalously large warm sector to exist ahead of whatever ejects eastward from a developing longwave trough in the west. Obviously a lot that could go wrong as with any 8+ day prog, but seeing that moisture available along with a very strong Pacific jet streak making landfall has my eyebrows perked up a bit.

Looking towards the earlier part of next week, I wouldn't be surprised if we see another elevated period of severe potential relative to climatology for the Plains and perhaps eastward. Pattern looks quite conducive to moisture return and potentially quite anomalous moisture return in front of another large scale trough developing in the west on ensemble guidance.

Also I have quite a bit of concern that Norman is going to take on its second major hailstorm in less than 6 months tomorrow. Soundings near the triple point indicate very large cloud layer shear and plenty of CAPE in the hail growth zone.

Regardless of tornado potential, I will be heading to the Wichitas tomorrow to do some hiking in the late morning/early afternoon. That would put me in great position for whatever initiates in the 21-00z window.

I still have some very bearish opinions towards Sunday as a whole, mainly from the moisture standpoint. There is not a single model that shows anywhere near the moistening/destabilization that the NAM/NAM 3 km shows, especially pre-00z. Looks to me like most convection should be nocturnal and likely quasi-linear.

Bottom continues to fall out on the sub-surface readings. This is a pretty stout cooling occurring.

That doesn't really say a whole lot about whether there will be storms and of what mode.

That is a violent tornado.

Holy mother.

That's going to be a strong tornado in the northern burbs.

I don't like the looks of that supercell near the Chester/Delaware County line.

Have seen some damage pictures out of the area that look at least EF2.

There's the Edgewater tornado, probably significant given TDS height and peak VROT of 45 kts.

70/30 probs on that new watch for E MD/PA/NJ. Pretty stout probabilities for this region.

The cell south of Charlottesville has quite a meso on it, but that central VA radar hole is being a giant pain.

Have seen some forecast hodographs from this and yeah, things are going to be spinning pretty easily. Outside shot of a sig tor or two given the environment.

The eye continues to warm and the pressure continues to fall. It’s not leveling out yet.

That phenomenon is called "Cat 4s and 5s are still quite rare".

Supercell near Marble Rock IA looks prime for a sig tor.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 73% is 15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

Note the center's westward jog as it crosses Cuba.

987 mb on the new advisory.

Detailed surge risk map of New Orleans.