andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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That is nuts. Seems to be wave-like features propagating outward from the eye/eyewall region as well.
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That is one heck of a wind field on KMOB, lots of >100 kt outbounds not too far off the deck. Going to be an impressive inland wind event for MS/AL.
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These are some big gusts coming out of where it made landfall. Also reports of significant structural damage in the area.
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Earlier microwave scans were setting this table. Not going to have very much time for weakening near landfall if this continues to blow up in the next 12 hours.
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More recent microwave pass showing better organization still.
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That's a nice cyan ring on microwave there, great outflow pattern too. Probably a decent shot at a stint of RI during diurnal max upcoming.
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Based on? The -1˚C contour there is clearly spreading west with time. A progression similar to 2007-08 would follow that kind of idea.
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Noticeable deepening the cold pool has taken place over the course of past couple of months thanks to the Nina standing wave. Looks to be some weakening over the next week or so in the standing wave, but the trade surge currently east of the dateline and propagating westward should help in cooling Nino 4 a bit more.
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Good start at hacking away the drought across the High Plains as well.
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Strong/persistent Niña standing wave now and that NMME mean is impressive. Should probably note the rapid decay of the Niña in the new year might be problematic if it decays from east to west. A couple of previous studies have identified a link between a positive state of the Trans Nino Index (TNI), with colder waters in Nino 4 versus 1.2, and increased potential for tornado outbreaks especially east of the Plains in spring.
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That is quite a strong signal from the ECMWF seasonal, which is commonly warm biased with ENSO.
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Those are definitely not record setting May numbers. May 2003, 2004, and 2008 all had around 500 tornadoes, 2015 and 2019 were also more active.
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HWRF with a high end Cat 3/Cat 4 landfall on Cancún and that may be underdone given current satellite presentation and ideal conditions for the next 36 hours.
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Your guess is as good as mine. I know the Euro tends to be a bit warm biased with ENSO and the CFS (NOAA) tends to be bullish with ENSO so I’d stake my claims somewhere in between. We haven’t had a Niña this well developed since probably 2010-2012.
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Latest Niño 3.4 multi-model ensemble from BOM is pretty locked into a moderate or even strong Niña peak in December.
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Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.
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Can see it picking up the low frequency signal there.
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Officially in La Nina conditions per WMO. Thinking a moderate event is becoming increasingly likely with strong trade winds continuing near and east of the dateline.
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Further intensification and westward progression of the Niña seems likely should this trade surge on the ECMWF come to fruition. Looks to me like we’re heading for a moderate event. Seems like MEI is paralleling 2007 as well to a decent degree.
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This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.
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This should help cool the western ENSO regions a bit...
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That's impossible to know for now. I'd lean towards a quieter than normal chase season though.
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Typed up a Twitter thread regarding this.
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Should probably add the obvious Nina standing wave pattern showing up now in the 850 hPA zonal wind Hovmollers. Strong, sustained trades across most of the basin.
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September run of the NMME is getting pretty aggressive with the strength of the Niña come winter, with the majority of members reaching moderate strength. Getting rather concerned about a very active cool season severe weather pattern given the drought conditions in the SW supporting efficient EML advection east of the Plains and the La Niña supporting SE/W Atlantic ridging.
