andyhb

Synoptics here scream regional severe wx outbreak. One of the more synoptically evident events we’ve seen in recent years. Now it’s down to the mesoscale to decide on ceiling. Not every day you see a trough with a 110+ kt 500 mb max impinging on a warm sector with mid-upper 60s dewpoints regardless of season. Wind fields seem to be gradually shifting towards more of the “these cells could be strongly tornadic” idea, but I’d also like to see what we wake up with tomorrow. I have little doubt the NAM 3 km is at least somewhat off in terms of eastward extent of the warm sector though.

Posting LOT’s discussion for posterity because it is a beast.

This one is a bit different where basically every CAM is in agreement on a string of pearls ahead of that front. We have a very clear focus for initiation this time in the warm sector. I do believe the HRRR parameters may be a bit overblown in terms of instability, but its wind profiles are extremely impressive.

Every other model has temps above 70 over most of the IL warm sector at 21z.

Advertising warmer? Even the GFS has temps in the low-mid 70s at 21z Saturday. Would make a big difference thermo wise, especially with seasonably high levels of moisture. If we can get the LLJ to be at least SSW by go time, that will yield shear profiles more typical with significant tornado events in this region.

Regarding the 3 km NAM, I will eat my hat if it is 65-68˚ in the warm sector at 21z Saturday. Those temps look way too low.

Storms moving at the speed of light would be number one regarding chasing. I do think there’s a pretty strong possibility this stays mostly discrete until the evening though. Would maybe like to see a bit more turning in the lowest 3 km and a bit more instability, but I’m inclined to think that the arcing Pacific front/pseudo-dryline, in addition to the triple point in IA early on, should be a breeding ground for supercells. Tornado potential dependent on how the low level wind fields evolve (and how fast the deep layer cyclone occludes).

Why do you keep tagging me with the weenie emoji?

Definitely a few similarities with the setup that yielded the deadly TN tornadoes on 3/3. Strong westerly flow aloft with similar hodograph structure and I'm going to bet that the NAM/NAM 3 km are too cold at the surface. Any southerly component to the surface wind will yield large 0-1 km SRH when your 850 mb jet is 50 kts out of the WSW.

JISAO PDO is no longer being updated. Also, the +AO has reached an all time record daily value at 6.34, surpassing 2/26/90 at 5.91.

Getting increasingly concerned that the strongest low-mid level FGEN and vertical ascent may set up right over the I-44 corridor in OK and N TX with this. Someone who stays cold enough is going to see 12-18”, which, for here, is crippling. With that said, the 3 km NAM seems stubbornly persistent in its idea of really suffocating the band before anything really gets going.

Euro/EPS have been getting stronger with the cold dumping into the NW during this period as well, more of an Arctic source region than a Pacific one.

That was a very 2008-like 00z Euro run. Probably a couple of severe wx events in the SE and a major winter storm with the first for Chicago/GRR. Big ice storm for DTX/Ontario.

As is tradition, let's give our calls for how active the first tornado season of the decade will be. Looks like we'll be heading towards spring with weak positive ENSO and roughly neutral PDO, in addition to a lack of drought over most of the area east of the Rockies. I have a feeling like we may see another A/AA season given some of these climate states, but obviously sub-seasonal activity will again be key. Will have more analysis later. Number of tornadoes: 1310 First High Risk: 4/18

At this point I’m just looking for an email to recover my password.

Ditto this situation.

Early June has been very quiet for most of the 2010s, the exception being 2010 itself. I definitely think the latter part of next week will have a chance beyond the amplification of the ULL near the Great Lakes. There is a strong signal in the GEFS for at least some activity in that period (and there has been for awhile), and note that the GEFS SCP chiclets on Gensini's website are anomaly based, rather than using raw count, so it gives a better idea of elevated activity relative to climo. Signal on the EPS is rather nebulous, but I wouldn't expect a really large signal in the heights at this point since it looks to be more centered around subtle disturbances in the flow.

Paul Roundy was my OU advisor's phD advisor. This is another shot across the bow regarding this upcoming severe wx season.

@raindancewx I saw you post the TWC spring outlook elsewhere and am curious as to why you don’t agree with them for May/what your general thoughts for May are (for obvious reasons).

Monstrous dendrites falling here along I-35 in North Norman. Deformation zone setting right up over the OKC metro.

Well I just picked a fantastic day to be flying back to OKC from vacation. Both the 00z and 12z OUN soundings showed a relatively classic ZR profile, although that should change later with dynamical cooling aloft associated with the cold core ULL. Could be the most significant snow accumulations in the region since Feb 1-2, 2011 (GHD storm). Saw a recent report of TSSN in Lawton as well.

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger. ...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

Lol @ not being able to get 40 kts of flow at 500 mb in f*cking May.

I can sense the annoyance/boredom both in that and even in the SPC outlooks recently.

This year is very much reminding me of those insanely quiet periods between 1985 and 1988 where flow across the US just generally died in peak season. Poleward displaced Pacific jet is the main culprit of this, and that doesn't look to change anytime soon.