andyhb

Monstrous dendrites falling here along I-35 in North Norman. Deformation zone setting right up over the OKC metro.

Well I just picked a fantastic day to be flying back to OKC from vacation. Both the 00z and 12z OUN soundings showed a relatively classic ZR profile, although that should change later with dynamical cooling aloft associated with the cold core ULL. Could be the most significant snow accumulations in the region since Feb 1-2, 2011 (GHD storm). Saw a recent report of TSSN in Lawton as well.

That time of year for the annual thread as spring is less than three months away once more. Following another extremely quiet year with a record low for EF3+ tornadoes and zero violent tornadoes for the first time since at least 1900 (going back through Grazulis' records), we look to be coming out of a weak El Nino event with some potential for maintenance through the spring, along with a PDO that may hover from neutral through positive. Last spring saw an amazing lack of troughing activity through peak season in the western/central states, with winter essentially flipping to summer. Would not be terribly surprised if this season blooms (if it does) a bit later. Curious to hear general thoughts going into next season, hard to imagine one more quiet than this one for the Plains at least, although I thought 2014 took the cake in that department... Number of Tornadoes: 1170 First High Risk: April 23rd

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger. ...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

Lol @ not being able to get 40 kts of flow at 500 mb in f*cking May.

I can sense the annoyance/boredom both in that and even in the SPC outlooks recently.

This year is very much reminding me of those insanely quiet periods between 1985 and 1988 where flow across the US just generally died in peak season. Poleward displaced Pacific jet is the main culprit of this, and that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

l'll take an order of the 12z Euro kplzthxbai. Out there from the 9th to the 14th.

Because the current run is the one that is running right now, not the displayed one necessarily. Since Wednesday is not in range yet, it defaults to the previous run when you try to display the data for that particular day.

The Euro data comes out from ~12:45 to 2 PM CDT during daylight savings. There's no way that site would have the 12z run in that far already.

....what are you talking about? That's the 00z run. Look: FH 168 hrs. 168 from last night's run was Thursday 00z. FH 156 from the 12z run today will be Thursday 00z.

00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.

One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.

Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new. There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.

With a pitiful pattern it looks like heading towards May I might add. Upper flow over the CONUS dies with the unfavorable +dAAM/dt tendency. A lot of bad in the CPC analogs too with 2006 and 1987 showing up at/near the top (easily two of the worst Mays for chasing).

On the other hand, the CMC and UK have basically nothing because they aren't nearly as amplified with Friday's trough. Thing more or less just slides through the large scale flow as opposed to really digging.

GFS was definitely more promising than the 00z run though.

I'm pretty impressed with the overall synoptics with this system (especially the strong LLJ throughout the afternoon), looks like a fairly prototypical earlier season High Plains event. Also a strong LLJ like that will help counteract any negative effects the ongoing drought might have on moisture return. Need that lead system to both help recover the Gulf sufficiently after the FROPA this weekend but also stay a bit less amplified so as to not suppress the cyclogenesis/warm sector behind it.

Certainly taking more note of Friday with the recent model runs aside from the GFS (which looks to be too fast). The 500 mb winds over the southern half of the threat especially have definitely shifted more straight out of the SW as opposed to the SSW, partly due to the somewhat more positive tilt nature of the trough. Not all of guidance is indicating a wash out in the morning/early afternoon either now. Curious to see how far north the destabilization gets closer in proximity to the surface low, it seems possible that we could have an arcing band of semi-discrete storms up in that area. Low level shear should be rather favorable over most of the threat area, although I do have some questions regarding more boundary-parallel deep layer shear in some portions of the risk. Should note that a lobe of vorticity (especially apparent on the latest Euro run) on the SW side of the ULL may lead to pressure falls further south and subsequent convergence/low level wind response.

2010s post-2012 are fun, eh? This entire regime that we've been in for most of the last half decade has been very testing on my patience for following this stuff (and that says a lot). Fortunately there was 2016 to have success with chasing to keep the interest high, but aside from that, not a whole lot. All of this bupkis on Twitter/etc. about calling the season now isn't helping either.

The idea shown on the Euro/EPS mean is a more low amplitude pattern that doesn't necessarily mean a big SE ridge.

The 500 mb height gradient across the SW is total garbage for this weekend especially on the Euro and the most recent 18z GFS.

For now all I will say on that is a warm sector as extensive (with quality BL moisture) as is being progged by the GFS and Euro for Saturday generally yields problems in the cold season. A lot of details to be sorted out surrounding the influence of the strong SE ridge and the trough's ejection though.

12z Euro was showing a fairly significant severe weather setup (first of the year if it comes into fruition) over the Red River Valley eastward into the Arklatex on Tuesday.

Pending enough moisture return, Tuesday (9/19) could offer a fairly substantial severe risk across the Dakotas mainly. Consensus for a strong, negatively tilted shortwave pivoting east/northeast out of that large trough in the northwest with a broad, 40-50 kt southerly/south-southeasterly LLJ axis becoming established by 21z Tuesday. Don't see many problems with forcing for ascent (so much so that fairly quick linear transition is more of a concern than a cap bust), and if enough southwesterly 500 mb flow can overlap the LLJ axis, deep layer shear shouldn't be an issue either. Seems to me like it could be the first healthy risk of the "second season". Also, the primary trough/ULL remains in the west in behind, which could lead to further potential later in the week, although that's still TBD.