andyhb

Looks like the 00z GFS came significantly toward the other guidance, although it is still more progressive than them.

Not only that, but the pattern across the N Pacific looks to become increasingly volatile over the next while with a series of strong systems making their way into the Gulf of Alaska region and a corresponding strong negative height anomaly off the NW coast, so the active period might not be over with this system. You can see it there on the Euro run with another very strong impulse in behind the trough of mention. Euro is showing CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg over central and southern AR @ 150 hrs.

Agreement with the GFS is essentially non-existent with the other three main globals, the GGEM and UK also have a substantial trough dropping into the Central US this weekend.

That was one of the strange things about the 11/17 outbreak last year, the lapse rates that day were one of the things leading to that thermodynamic environment being more volatile rather than less. Helps when you have an absolute powerhouse of a system with a strong mid level dry punch of course.

October 9th, 2001 being the number one analog explains the Oklahoma bullseye. Also, October 4th, 1998 is up there.

The 00z Euro had a very impressive system late next week. The models have been toying with a large upper trough dropping into the west for some time now, and recent ideas have suggested a pretty robust ejection, with today's 00z suite being the strongest so far. Certainly something to keep an eye on for further continuity in later runs. There are two important things to watch first, one being the s/w dropping SSE towards the Gulf Coast early next week, which may have a substantial impact on moisture quality, and then the closed low migrating eastward and devolving into an open wave, after which the stronger impulse moving in from the Pacific NW drops in behind.

Looks like regardless of how that trough ejects, we might be dealing with E Pacific TC-contaminated lapse rates again with Odile's track.

D5 outlook out, that's quite a substantial trough the Euro has tracking through the Central/Northern Plains late this weekend.

Well after Wednesday went to a non-event rather quickly due to leftover clouds/etc, there appears to be a decent amount of potential near the WF on Saturday, especially on the 00z Euro, with a relatively strong/backed LLJ and good upper support over the E Dakotas and perhaps W MN. Again, leftover convection is going to be a question mark, since this evening could have relatively widespread storms ongoing.

00z GFS/NAM soundings are still really impressive on Wednesday afternoon/evening in (you guessed it) north central/northeast NE and south central/southeast SD with steep mid level lapse rates and strong directional shear in the lowest km. The area is very weakly capped at 21z so there should be a window for storm initiation in there, and with a well-timed shortwave impulse passing through the area, it screams a good August chasing opportunity as it looks now (who woulda thunk it) and does have several similarities to the June 16th/17th setups. It likely will come down to mesoscale placement again, but any supercell that goes up there will have good possibilities for significant severe given the parameters in place with a feed of 70 Tds along a corridor on either side of the NE/SD border. I would think that SPC has to revise that "no severe area" in the D3 with the upcoming D2. There seems to be increasing potential here.

Had a little flashback to mid June when I saw some of the model guidance today.

Figured I'd create another one of these since the old one got locked. Might be potential for a severe wx episode next week if some of the medium range model solutions are on the right track. Looks like a rather sizable upper trough for August dropping through the Pacific NW, then ejecting in some form towards the Northern/Central Plains.

If you had to put some sort of value of damage or casualty potential with a tornado, that one is almost certainly way up there, considering it's path length, size, intensity, longevity of maintaining said intensity and forward speed. The fact it killed 72 people (and the ratio of fatalities to injuries) without going through a town of more than 1500 people (per the 2010 census) speaks for itself.

Catastrophic flooding taking place in Alberta...75,000+ people are displaced, Calgary's downtown is flooded, the Saddledome is flooded. The Bow River has essentially turned into a raging torrent.

Wow, that is amazing.

EF1 tornado in Oregon yesterday per LSRs.

Made it to at least 84˚F here today, probably hotter.

Now officially 2 years since this event, kind of hard to believe to be honest.

It could be a satellite rotation off of the main circulation, I believe the El Reno tornado had something similar at one point. It could also just be a cloud formation if it wasn't rotating (a bit hard to tell in that video). The power flash at the end reminds me of one of the shots of the 5/3/99 tornado in Moore from a helicopter.

Well there was one in April 2010 as well (Yazoo City).

The April 27th, 2011 outbreak.

Many of the models and quite a few ensemble members have that second trough/disturbance diving into the West around the D10 period.

Snowed in Tokyo with that thing.

Screen cap of the Phil Campbell tornado going through the city/around that area, taken from the Country Road 71/Mon Dye road area on the east side of town near Little Bear Creek, looking back WNW towards the wedge tornado, likely with EF5 damage occurring right as this shot was taken.