andyhb

For lack of a better term, February looks like it could offer the chance for a blockbuster or two for the Lakes as the North American longwave pattern retrogrades plus continuing high latitude blocking (albeit likely relaxed some) and a more Nina-like regime resumes. Should note that with this high latitude blocking comes some degree of suppression to the typical SE ridge, and less likelihood for storms to cut west of the sub-forum. Going to have to watch severe weather chances down south I'd imagine as well.

1955 was a very active spring over the Southern Plains severe weather wise, especially for the time.

Looks like the two years that had big -NAOs in January out of that composite are 1955 and 1960. The former just seems to be a pretty good analog in general the more I filter.

More extreme damage from the Worcester tornado (photos I haven't seen). Idk how this one is not classified as a 5 in the databases.

Well the Euro is certainly... fun next week. As in two feet of snow for ICT and >30” for Manhattan fun.

It would be nice if you weren't constantly such a d*ck.

Active tornado season in Dixie, not necessarily the Plains. That, and weak La Niña (which is what the weeklies have been shifting towards in 3.4) has not been friendly to tornado season as of late (2006, 2009, 2012, 2017, 2018).

Couldn't find another place to put this (not sure if there's a dedicated thread to the Worcester tornado or not), but these aerial images that I've never seen before of the damage path of the tornado are incredible, and are at multiple locations along the path.

Aside from the 8/10 derecho, lol this severe season. Can’t say things are looking up for next year for us out here in the Plains with the raging drought out west and La Niña conditions, but I could certainly see some Midwest shenanigans.

Also regarding fairly modest storms (intensity wise via central pressure) producing extreme snowfalls.

Looks like a new report of 4 feet came in for NH.

NWS BGM met.

Just lol @ sustaining 0.35-0.4" QPF/hr rates in 15˚F temperatures.

Oh no biggie just 1.11" QPF in 3 hours with temperatures of 15˚F.

Only thing I can compare it to is the band with the Pi Day blizzard in March 2017 or the one with the Feb 2013 blizzard in CT (and that was significantly shorter duration).

When your snowfall rates literally break the scale for the NY Mesonet page...

Looks like the snowfall rates at BGM are literally off the scale of the NY Mesonet site.

Somehow that band has actually widened and intensified in the past 60-90 mins on radar. Just incredible frontogenetic forcing with great vertical velocities in the DGZ intersecting with a nearly ideal temperature profile for big rates.

March 1888 would like to have a word.

Here's that observation I was referencing.

NWS employees are reporting >5"/hr rates at Binghamton right now.

KBGM 170553Z AUTO 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M09/M11 A2985 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 3/4 SLP136 P0040 60120 T10891106 11072 21089 58023 RVRNO Unreal 06z observations at Binghamton. 0.4" QPF in an hour.

That is just a monster band. Could see some 30” jackpots where it pivots.

Curious if we see an uptick in severe weather potential later in winter given some of the parallels to years like 2007-08 (which saw significant tornado outbreaks in Jan-Feb including a historic one Feb 5-6) and 2011-12, which saw several significant events in Jan-March, including the back to back Leap Day and major 3/2 tornado events. Seems like general consensus for a number of forecasts I’ve seen is for western troughing/eastern ridging to become more prevalent Jan-Feb, which would favor that. We also have a significant drought across much of the SW, which is liable to yield enhanced capping due to EML advection, which is often a caveat in winter given the likelihood of strongly-forced synoptic scale waves.

It was posted on TWN as well I think.