andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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HWRF with a high end Cat 3/Cat 4 landfall on Cancún and that may be underdone given current satellite presentation and ideal conditions for the next 36 hours.
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Your guess is as good as mine. I know the Euro tends to be a bit warm biased with ENSO and the CFS (NOAA) tends to be bullish with ENSO so I’d stake my claims somewhere in between. We haven’t had a Niña this well developed since probably 2010-2012.
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Latest Niño 3.4 multi-model ensemble from BOM is pretty locked into a moderate or even strong Niña peak in December.
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Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.
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Can see it picking up the low frequency signal there.
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Officially in La Nina conditions per WMO. Thinking a moderate event is becoming increasingly likely with strong trade winds continuing near and east of the dateline.
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Further intensification and westward progression of the Niña seems likely should this trade surge on the ECMWF come to fruition. Looks to me like we’re heading for a moderate event. Seems like MEI is paralleling 2007 as well to a decent degree.
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This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.
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This should help cool the western ENSO regions a bit...
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That's impossible to know for now. I'd lean towards a quieter than normal chase season though.
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Typed up a Twitter thread regarding this.
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Should probably add the obvious Nina standing wave pattern showing up now in the 850 hPA zonal wind Hovmollers. Strong, sustained trades across most of the basin.
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September run of the NMME is getting pretty aggressive with the strength of the Niña come winter, with the majority of members reaching moderate strength. Getting rather concerned about a very active cool season severe weather pattern given the drought conditions in the SW supporting efficient EML advection east of the Plains and the La Niña supporting SE/W Atlantic ridging.
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I'm a fan of the low level hodograph curvature I've seen on a few soundings, although I'd like to see the magnitude of the 850 mb flow increase a bit to be more sure on tornado potential. SPC mentions 30-40 kts, but most soundings I've pulled are more in the 20-30 kt range.
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That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.
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I don't know, because expecting more than 1 out of 15 storms through August to be beyond a Category 1 seems reasonable? Again, it's all relative to the amount of actual activity. Sure if we had only 6 named storms by now, it might look more impressive in terms of "quality" if we had 3-4 canes and 1 major.
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And I said that where? Learn to read for context please. By no means am I calling for a "season fail" the rest of the way through, but consider some actual, I don't know, statistics.
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When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).
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Those are absolutely bonkers.
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The great annual Yanksfan takeover of the tropical threads is on.
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For all of those people wasting time with a...certain individual in the Laura thread, all I have to say is "divide by zero".
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Holy mother of god. Warning: viewers with headphones might want to lower the volume. Information about where it was filmed.
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Summer severe wx prediction has been documented to have less skill than its spring counterpart. Composite parameters and high resolution/convective allowing guidance have less ability when flow becomes more nebulous in the summer, capping is generally stronger over synoptic scales, and forcing is weaker.
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Multiple other 120+ mph estimates coming out of that survey, including 126 mph at Atkins unofficially measured by a private wx station. We already knew this was a top end event, that just confirms it.
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A cyclic pyrosupercell. Now I’ve seen it all.
