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1234snow

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Everything posted by 1234snow

  1. 1234snow
    I think we are starting to switch from “Will there be a cold shot and East coast storm?” to “How far south can the TPV lope drop south and deepen?” Obviously it is still 7 days out at this point which is a long way in modeling but todays trends were good.
  2. 1234snow
    That is immediately the event I thought when I saw the the 18z GFS. Almost 2 years to the day as well. This one might be on crack though compared to that temp wise.
  3. 1234snow
    This was well worth the read everyone. I’m going to start reading these discussions as they come out. Talks about how Atlantic wave breaking can keep the -NAO going longer, how the -PNA will break down and then come back later in the period, and how MJO may not influence the Asian jet where the convection is located.
  4. 1234snow
    Thanks! I read the sub forum everyday and watch each round of model runs. I normally don’t say much because y’all do a wonderful job of breaking the pattern down.
  5. 1234snow
    One thing I noticed on the 18z GFS and other model runs today (as well as ensembles) is the Greenland Block hangs on for most of the runs extended period. I believe that the block will be tough to break down completely as we head into the holidays. The longer the block holds the greater our chances. Surely one wave will hit. Right? Right? Lolz
  6. 1234snow
    My eyes may be playing tricks on me….. but if you look close you can see the actual flashes of lightning reflecting off other clouds in the eyewall.
  7. 1234snow
    Velocities of around 130mph are being shown from the Key west radar in the north and south quads of the storm. Appears to also show that the ERC is very close to complete.
  8. 1234snow
    18z HWRF completes the ERC soon, develops a big eye, and bombs Ian down to 928mb. I really hope that intensity is off. HMON is a more “reasonable” 939mb
  9. 1234snow
    Stupid question here…. Does the shape of Cuba’s coastline help to tighten up Ian’s core in this situation? The outer bands of convection seems to line up very well with the southern coastline currently as they rotate counter clockwise parallel to the shore.
  10. 1234snow
    A line of broken severe storms has moved off the mountains into the valley/Knoxville area with several severe warnings. Also there is a line of storms back in Illinois advancing southeast. Those probably won’t make it but an interesting flow in the storm directions today.
  11. 1234snow
    Just north of you across the KY line close to Jelico have received up to 6 inches of rain today.
  12. 1234snow
  13. 1234snow
    Next round of rain is moving in. Unfortunately WPC has placed Eastern KY and a small portion of SWVA in a moderate risk for flash flooding today. Hopefully that is just a precautionary measure due to the recent devastation. The rest of TN is in the slight category. Radar estimated that 4-5 inches of rain fell since Monday here at the house. No flooding issues here thankfully unlike our neighbors to the north and northwest in SWVA/KY. I finally got my jungle of a yard mowed on Saturday.
  14. 1234snow
    Had a big storm roll through around 2 am. Lot of lighting and heavy rain. Radar estimate is up to around 1.50 starting Monday. St. Louis, MO area getting rocked by historic flooding of up to a foot while cells are still training over the area.
  15. 1234snow
    Got hit twice today by storms. Radar estimate is around .75. New Tazewell, Tazewell, TN shows 2-3 inches of rain and under a FFW.
  16. 1234snow
    Some chunk of the Valley is under the slight risk for excessive rainfall for every day out to Day 5.
  17. 1234snow
    This summer has been so interesting. Periods of drought and heat then several days of good rain back to stifling heat. This weekend was a hot one but now back to several days of a good chance of rain.
  18. 1234snow
    Added another inch in the last hour of so according to radar. It has come a heavy storm/rain every evening/night since Tuesday. Many close by lightning strikes and good wind on most of the nights. Some good soaking rain after the initial line of storms have moved through each evening. Tonight is more of a slow moving storm motion with heavy downpours and no lightning. I will guess around 5-6 inches of rain this week. Quite the contrast from the drought we have had. Each day this week made it above 90 before the storms until todays high of 83.
  19. 1234snow
    Eastern Kentucky has been getting slammed all morning with heavy rain
  20. 1234snow
    I know that March/April are windy months but I’ve never remembered a whole week of constant winds over 20-30mph every day.
  21. 1234snow
    There was a report of a 74mph wind gust at 9:00pm at Cove Mountain. Not too far away from this fire. Also, a fire has broke out on Clinch Mountain east of Gate City.
  22. 1234snow
    Just had a nasty squall line come through with accumulating sleet that has covered the ground/cars with a dusting. Wind is whipping.
  23. 1234snow
    I can believe it. That band was really cranking. Another small band is moving over the house now. Winds are ripping with this one.
  24. 1234snow
    That band was super intense. Like you said the visibility down to nothing. It was tough driving for a little bit. Roads got very white. About as hard as it can snow. On the north side of the band the sun is peaking through the clouds. 23 degrees.
  25. 1234snow
    Really heavy snow streamer has set up over Kingsport coming out of the northwest. Interesting little feature.
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