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1234snow

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Everything posted by 1234snow

  1. 1234snow
    This will be a storm that I will never forget. This is the one I’ve been waiting for for years. The area is slowly digging out this morning. Power is still out and will be that way for most of the day. 13 inches total. And that is with 3 hours of freezing rain. Many areas in the county have well over 15”. The snow wasn’t the hardest I’ve ever seen but the duration of 2” an hour certainly was. Just a perfect setup for here. I don’t think the temp ever fell below 32 degrees. You have to be right on the edge to get the big totals! Really sorry to those of you that didn’t get much. BlunderStorm I’ve been in your shoes too many times to count. I’m scratching my head that you were warm nosed like that especially with NE winds for the entire event. The HRRR showed that and I thought it was nuts to show that warm nose.
  2. 1234snow
    Just when i thought the snow was done it is back and the band has backfilled south just a little bit.
  3. 1234snow
    Snow has finally stopped and this has been the biggest single snowfall since I started tracking these things around 08-09. 12.5” The rates were around 2” for 4 hours or so and we never changed back to any mixed precip. Power will be out for a long time I’m afraid. Cell phone coverage is poor in my area as well. I have done several Jeb walks today lol Breezy winds weren’t helping the situation. I watched several limbs and branches fall. Even watched half a tree hit some lines but they stayed up.
  4. 1234snow
    Yes, I have gas logs! Thank goodness. Radar looks very good. 12”+ looks very obtainable
  5. 1234snow
    Around 8” now here. 2” hour rates are very rare. Big tree crashed somewhere close by 15 minutes ago and the power is gone. What an incredible storm.
  6. 1234snow
    2” between 7:15 and 8:15
  7. 1234snow
    Heavy wet snow continues to fall. Measured 4.5” on the deck. Cleared it off as best I could but it’s a heart attack wet and slushy snow. These next 2-3 hours should be fun. Let’s see if the power can hold on. Some areas already picked up 1-3” inches while I was rain last night. Some people will see a whole seasons average before calendar winter even starts!
  8. 1234snow
    Finally back to all snow.
  9. 1234snow
    All freezing rain for the past 40 minutes here. Areas to the south and south east are getting heavy snow. Go figure.
  10. 1234snow
    A lot of sleet ongoing currently. Probably quarter inch of accumulation. Much less than other areas.
  11. 1234snow
    Interestingly the correlation coefficient line moved well south of Kingsport at the start but is now back to the state line. Very useful tool on RadarScope.
  12. 1234snow
    Light drizzle and 41 in Kingsport changed to 39 and flurries when I got home. Let’s get this party started!
  13. 1234snow
    Currently 39 with dew point of 27. State of Emergency has been declared for Virginia as well as North Carolina.
  14. 1234snow
    Are you concerned about winds aiding in downed trees and power outages? Especially in the mountains? That’s part of the storm that I haven’t even considered yet. Winds are probably around 5-10mph here right now. Close to a foot of this snow would probably yield around 1.5” of QPF. I could see this being a problem for some in the higher terrain.
  15. 1234snow
    To quote Darrell Waltrip: “Have you ever?”. Lol I don’t believe I have seen consistent 12”+ modeled on virtually every model for our immediate area in NETN. NAM and GFS tried to lose the storm and shove it South a few days ago but the trend reversed back to the copious amounts of QPF. I’m still trying to figure out how Lucy will pull the football from us this time. My biggest concern would be a slower changeover to snow Sunday morning. If we waste a few hours switching over then we will lose probably around .5 of QPF or more. I’m curious to see if we start all snow to begin with. If that happens it is game on.
  16. 1234snow
    Like Blunderstorm I’m fairly confident that the northern edge will make it to Bluefield. That is if the 3k NAM/RGEM are correct. That’s a very good combo to have on your side. You will also be 100% snow and will have true 10/1 ratios. I would be concerned with snow dropping off 77 toward Beckley. I would love to see pictures of the tunnels in Bluefield and Bland, VA with a big snow. I’ve done some work in those tunnels this year.
  17. 1234snow
    In my amateur opinion Jackson KY needs to issue some warnings for their southeast counties and Morristown needs to issue warnings for Hawkins, Hancock and Greene Counties. Also they need to expand the warnings into John’s area. I’m fairly confident John will see warning criteria snows. He does very well in these scenarios where rain switches to snow thanks to dynamic cooling.
  18. 1234snow
    Carvers, I believe the 12z GFS is also in the kool-aid!
  19. 1234snow
    Good morning everyone! Big 12z runs of our favorite models (yes even the goofy GFS) are on the deck! I would consider the GFS an outlier on the low side with QPF and the RGEM on the high side. All models had remarkable consistency from the 0z to 6z runs. The GFS and ICON slightly bump up totals with each passing run. Huge test for the FV3-GFS since it will become the main GFS in a month. It has behaved so much differently from the GFS for the past several days. I think we can finally lock down this storm and it’s totals after the 12z runs. This is the money run in my opinion. Regardless of what happens the whole storm system has been modeled consistently for a whole week! It showed up 240 hours ago and here we still are tracking a similar scenario. No comparison between the two storms but we may be talking about the December 8-10 storm being seen a week in advance just like we talk about the 1993 storm was seen a week in advance. Off topic: Noticed some intriguing marketing as Food City is advertising WCYB’s weather updates.
  20. 1234snow
    I’m starting to back off the ledge after some 18z runs. 18z RGEM is plenty amped with 2” QPF totals over much of the viewing area.
  21. 1234snow
    0z CMC clown map. Pretty consistent from 12z. Actually ticked up qpf just a little bit from 12z run. I really think the GFS is off of its rocker. WPC had mentioned that it was being to progressive with the 500mb shortwave compared to Euro. This run was very progressive. The CMC/Euro/NAM/FV3(0z not out yet) have all been extremely consistent compared to the GFS. That run was so different I’m going to classify it as a pretty good outlier.
  22. 1234snow
    0z GFS is like “What storm”. Warmer and also shifted the northern extent of the precip significantly further south.
  23. 1234snow
    18z NAM clown for hour 84. Pretty solid I must say. Haven’t had time to look at specifics.
  24. 1234snow
    After looking at the reduction of QPF on the 6z GFS and FV3 I’m getting a little concerned about the normal dry slotting issues in the valley. I’m always skeptical about how the line of convection around the Gulf can rob moisture transport up in the Valley. Just something to consider looking at future runs.
  25. 1234snow
    The 0z Canadian is a straight up thumping for NETN/SWVA and the mountains. 2’ in the northeast portion of the state. The QPF turns over to heavy snow quicker than any previous run of the model. QPF totals are just insane for a winter storm. 3.5-4” of QPF for Chatty. 3 to 3.5” for Knoxville and 2.5 to 3” for KTRI. That is indeed a rare sight to see that much moisture modeled from a winter storm.
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