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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If there were to be an Atlantic Patricia (and there will be in the next few years) it’s not going to recurve. A storm sub 890 and 200mph plus would occur in the SW Caribbean somewhere near the Caymans. That’s the the only area with MPI to pull it off. So it’s not escaping.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Excellent video. Peak gusts look to be 80+. Does anyone have a radar loop of the event?
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    As per usual, cannot buy a drop of rain on the south shore. Dryness will only act to make the salt situation worse. Meanwhile here on the UWS things are as lush and green as you will see in mid August
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We would have seen a complete destruction of the power grid, with outages lasting months. We likely would have seen gusts to 100mph+ Research suggests that Healthy northern hardwoods fail with winds over 80mph. I paid allot of attention to the tree damage with Isaias and allot of the snapped trees had termite or carpenter ant damage.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Hot and sunny on the uws. Bring on the rain later in the week
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yes it’s awful and a secondary disaster. My parents house is less then a mile from the bay in south wantagh and their huge silver maple is dropping leaves like it’s fall right now. It’s sad
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That cell in southernmost nj has incredible rotation
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Finally finished cleaning my campus today. I have been driving around on the way home each day and I have to say the tree damage in some areas is on par with Sandy. The Wantagh woods saw multiple oaks split mid way up, and Sandy seemed to be more uproot. Another lasting impact is the salt damage near the south shore. The south sides of trees within a mile of the bay are completely brown. Right on the water and on the barrier islands they are completely brown. I’m sure this will lead to more vegetation loss
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Sandy. Obvious gloria. A true hurricane with major tree damage and surge Irene. Surge puts Irene on top of Isaias, tree damage similar Isaias. Tree damage but limited coastal impacts Floyd Bob Ernesto It’s only a mater of time before a storm makes all of these look like a walk in the park. I have a feeling we aren’t finished this year
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    pseg coo just said on news 12 420,000 were out at the peak. i think the biggest factor that made this storm so impactful on trees was the unusual wind direction. Our trees are used to NE/E winds during storms and NW winds during the cold season. My parents enormous silver maple lost 3 huge branches today and did fine during sandy. (Like you said earlier less leaves during sandy)
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    A couple quick shots from my campus. It’s going to be a long week
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    All hell breaking loose in the city, whole trees down on my campus now. We even had windows blow in on the dorms
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Major tree damage already on my campus. Large branches down everywhere
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Glad there haven’t been any bust calls yet. I’m assuming the mods are keeping things clean.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s going to come in like a wall with the main feeder band. We should see consistent gusts in the 50s then. After that the question is can we surpass 70
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Nice storm about to rocket off the ocean into western Nassau.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s the main takeaway. This isn’t like most storms in the past were the strongest winds were from the NE or E. It’s going to be a straight onshore wind with minimal loss from land friction. I expect tree damage and power outages will be wide spread. The one saving grace is the fact that sandy took out so many large old trees.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think he’s talking about in his area. Storms racing north have historically had enhanced winds on their eastern sides. Just think of a much weaker version of 38 or hazel. There will be damaging winds from the city East. Trees are in full leaf and the wind direction will be somewhat unusual.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed, maybe JFK hits 60 but overall it’s 40-50 away from the island. The south shore was of JFK may gust to 70 somewhere with the LLJ enhancement
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Ripping and I mean ripping onshore flow currently at Jones.beach. The death of any severe event for the island
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We had some surprisingly big long period ground swell at Jones beach yesterday. It led to some rescues and the eventual closing of the water due to a severe injury in the shore break. The remarkable thing was, this swell was created when there was just a large trough open wave. Tropical storm force winds extended out 405 miles and shows the power of fetch in swell generation. We have seen major beach washovers
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I have been a life guard at Jones beach for 21 years and I truly believe this whole thing has gotten so blown out of proportion. I have seen sharks numerous times and we just don’t tell the general public. It’s the ocean and there are sharks. There has never been a shark attack on a human in NY in modern times. The risk is so incredibly small, you have a better chance of winning powerball then being attacked.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    38 and carol were the only legit majors during modern times. 1821 and 1630 are thought to be majors. There was another in the 1300s based on core samples. Obviously they were exceedingly rare for good reason. I suspect that’s about to change
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Gloria was supposed to rock LI as A major. Obviously that Did not happen. We have seen time and time again with storms taking a similar track that land interaction removes categories. In order for us to ever get a real major we need a 38 redux with a storm on a NNW track avoiding said land interaction
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s exactly the problem. We start to loose the effectiveness of the sea breeze. The warm water does help considerably with our severe chances though.
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