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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty incredible ice Accretion on the trees on the uws. Just enough to be beautiful but not dangerous
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s actually not true, it’s 32.6 and hasn’t gone above 32.7 at the wantagh mesonet which is pretty much on the bay still getting a sleet pellet and freezing rain mix on the uws
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The uws is an icy mess, surprisingly decent coating on the trees too. Never made it above freezing. The only thing that That kept this from becoming a true ice storm is the precip intensity, when it was coming down heavy most of it ran off.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Actually ended up going over to heavy sleet long enough on the uws to cause a mess. It’s amazing how sleet can accumulate despite the piles of salt sanitation put down. Roads are a mess and there was just enough for me to plow the campus, about .5-1”
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Never saw a flake on the uws (other then flurries way earlier today) now it’s a sleet and rain mix. Very little accumulation or accretion. Def a warmer scenario then I thought
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The February 2010 storm didn’t have southerly winds. Snow on long island on a south wind is extremity rare. There was a ocean effect snow event on a SW wind return flow that NSWEATHER posted about. That was a once in a couple decade event.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If it were December this would be an easy forecast for anyone south and east of 80. Rain. With water temps in the upper 30s it makes it more challenging as marine influence is muted.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Time for an ons thread. Flakes are flying on the uws. I’m expecting 1” of snow followed by 1” of sleet and ice before a change over to rain here on the far uws. 2” of sleet/snow/ice is very hard to melt so I expect a slushy mess tomorrow morning here.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It will be a winter wonderland Friday right to the northern part of the city. Sleet is incredibly hard to melt so even if we go to a period of rain then dry slot your just not melting that. As I have said all along this is a northern part of the city, extreme north shore of Li north ping fest. South shore, and southern part of the city will quickly go to rain with an east wind.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s not actually true. South of sunrise highway east of the meadowbrook went to all rain on VDay 2007. I was living in Long Beach at the time and went to my parents in south wantagh and was shocked that there was no ice on the trees there. Meanwhile right down to the beach in Lb stayed frozen
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s a regular winter there. I’m sure their record seasonal is around 300” and snow depth 60”+. That’s probably the snowiest small city in the US outside of the western mountains
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. It’s always good to throw in a little historical precedent. I have been doing snow removal on the far uws while living on the south shore for about a decade. I have experienced many events with similar setups where we have significantly more frozen on the uws then the south shore. There have even been several events with plowable snow/ice on the uws where it’s mainly rain on the SS.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty unlikely it plays out that way this is one of those setups you do not want to be on the south shore, despite the colder water temps. This has been and always will be a city Nw storm. The northern parts of the city and the extreme north shore of the island are the big question, could be pretty high impact
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Again, I’m looking to pad totals and do some snow removal $$$$$$. That’s still a likely scenario. We have cold offshore water temps and some decent cold to start the event. I’m looking for 2-4” including sleet before a change to rain then dry slot. I bet there is snow on the ground Friday. I’m also in the far Nw part of the city, I can see the Gwb from campus.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Since when did you become so negative? Is this an all out snow storm for NYC? No. But can we tack a couple inches (including sleet) on to seasonal totals? Yes. I also look at things from a snow removal and overtime lens.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    One thing to consider for the coast is, we have the lowest near shore water temps in several years. If this were December I would say we start and stay rain, but with water temps so cold that can offset the unfavorable wind direction somewhat.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The wind on the island is pretty insane currently, easily gusting to 50mph. Starting to get that distinctive roar through the trees and whistle through the wires
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s not like that would be static, it’s a smoothed mean. What he’s saying is there’s potential. We definitely shouldn’t close the shades on this winter. I’m fact I think areas NW of the city may have there best stretch of winter still to come
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We would definitely salvage a solid winter (new climate) if we can pull off a two week snow pattern at the end of real snow climo. Last week of February and the first week of March really is the end of winter, where you can still hold a snow pack at out latitude.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I don’t think March’s are becoming colder, they just feel colder with early winter warming. It’s pretty easy to see the connection to diminishing sea ice. The open water holds heat and it takes time for the Arctic to cool fully and that effects our cold air source.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Local water temps are now in the 30s for the first time in a couple years. 38 at the Ny harbor buoy. We would be primed if we had a better pattern incoming.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just thinking the same thing, with colder temps now that’s easily another inch for central Suffolk east
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Snowing decently again in wantagh at my dads house. 4” here, and finally now accumulating on the road, just in time for me to drive home
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I just took multiple legit measurements on the uws and all were over 3”
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