LongBeachSurfFreak

My moneys on that scenario right now. We need overall shear to relax and the atmosphere to moisten more as we get deeper into the heart of the season. Too many things need to be just perfect for this one.

Agreed, the whole base state of the lower troposphere keeps going up. There will still be cold in winter relative to averages in the mid latitudes though as the jet stream in forced south. One thing is certain, more extremes

Looks like I’ll be watering the veggies tonight

Had some meh gusts and couple decent bolts with the cells that just moved through on the uws. I was watching what appeared to be some serious rain/hail to the sw. Seemed like a pulse storm.

Here we go, that storm will somehow find a way to completely miss me on the uws

That would be a beautiful thing. Let’s see if it can get through the sheer zone first.

To be excepted this time of year. The MDR is a shear fest currently. If we can get something into that Hatteras to Bermuda zone this season it’s game time.

I’m really hoping that extends into the city. The slow moving front will act as a trigger. We have seen what real heat and high dews can do. I would still the expect the best chance of severe being from about you on SW to the DC area though.

Any reason we do not have a shot a convection today? I would appreciate some insight. Also, the potential for an organized MCs tomorrow or just scattered storms

Look at that path leading right to NE. Given the right circumstances this could be the year for a big one.

I first noticed it way back in July 2003. We had a solid week of powerful surging waves that seemingly came out of nowhere. Minor beach wash overs and swell periods of 20-17 seconds, something completely unheard of on the east coast. I looked around the North Atlantic and there was no tropical activity or storms at all. I figured it had to have come from a huge storm the week before that was unusually far north in the Southern Hemisphere. So I sent a question to Sean Collins the founder of Surfline and the king of surf forecasting. He sent me back a response on their “who knows” detailing the storm that caused the swell and how it’s entirely possible given the right circumstances. They have been talking about this current swell on their premium subscription forecasts for over a week now!!! We have had several smaller events since 03 but this is the only other that stacks up. Check out the swell periods on the NY Harbor Buoy. There are our typical local wind waves with the periods below 10 seconds and then the southern hemi swells with the periods over 13 seconds. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065

South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare.

Upton should definitely issue a rip current advisory. We had a wild end of the day yesterday at Jones beach with numerous rescues one of which I was part of. The long period swells originating from the Southern Hemisphere contain tremendous energy. As a set of waves approaches and then breaks, water is pulled out in a similar way to a tsunami. This effect then creates rip currents. The conditions are very deceiving as it is calm between the sets. Hoping for at least some rain this evening on the uws. It would be nice to continue the trend of not needing to water!

We have some very interesting swell that originated in the Southern Hemisphere effecting area beaches this weekend. Swell periods of 17-16 seconds which is indicative of long period deep water swell. The storm that caused these swells formed last week mid way between South America and Africa. This same storm is responsible for the largest waves ever surfed in Brazil. https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/avalanche-comes-brazil/57990 As these swells reach our beaches, despite being significantly decayed they produce surging waves that have caused minor wash-overs. Tons of energy in the ocean right now!! ,

That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting. Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday!

About as perfect of a beach day as you can get here at Jones beach currently! The water is a light blue/turquoise with that light winds and plenty surface warming. For a minute you would think you were on a tropical island somewhere

My buddy just sent me a video from jones beach of an apocalyptic sand storm. Said the winds were the strongest he has ever seen. Of course I missed it.

My harbor entrance buoy just gusted to 52 knots!

Wow, some incredible rates with the first cell here in manhattan. Instant flash flooding. 4-5” type rates

Me too, I have some video of cloud rotating overhead. Winds went north to east and then south

Wow the radar just lit up. Let’s do this

Getting some good thunder now with the smal cells on the uws.

I could see someone in the area getting some serious wind damage. And the park predictably hit 90, as the top layer of soil had dried out.

Nothing better then a major heat wave bookended with major rain events.I think 2” is doable this evening

Absolutely epic light show right now. I’m up on the roof enjoying every stroke.