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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Full on monsoon currently on the uws. Here we go again with flash flooding!
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Those storms along the Jersey shore have to be producing some serious flash flooding. Stationary forever.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Rapid intensification is still very difficult to forecast. So something much higher then a cat 3 is still very much on the table. The NHC is playing the middle road between a Cat 1/2 if rapid intensification doesn’t occur and 4/5 if it goes full tilt.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Your making assumptions based off the lower Manhattan reports. 1821 just happened to have the perfect track for surge for Manhattan. But it was less impactful for the region as a whole then Sandy
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    38 was a more impactful storm east of its center with a true cat 3 tropical core. I could see a scenario where we something similar displaced 50 miles west. That’s the ultimate storm we could hypothetically see here as a cat 3 core would bring a higher storm surge and obviously much greater winds then sandy. You would obliterate the power grids with PR style outages lasting months
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Perfect example ground truth exceeding radar images just now in the city. Some of the heaviest rain I have seen with that small cell. Pure monsoon
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This is very much in line with me thinking. I would love to experience a major hit the island. But this storm seems more of a nuisance. Without major extra tropical transition this is a core event. So unless your within 20 miles of the landfall location winds are rather pedestrian
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    While it definitely initiated too strong there is a nice window for significant intensification while Henri is over high OHC and aligned with vertical shear. Pretty much anything is still on the table. The only certainty is in large swells and beach erosion regardless of track
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    .00” at the wantagh meso to add to the .00” for the last 7 days. Hopefully that will change in a big way soon
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Very very true. This is why carol has always intrigued me. Because it didn’t follow the 38 playbook. It was home grown and not moving at 60mph but still managed to make landfall as a major. So if Henri happens to take advantage of the window of favorable conditions it will have when it’s crossing the Gulf Stream and overachieve there is a scenario where this is still a formidable hurricane at landfall. Ohhhh and waters are way above historical levels so our normal hurricane buffer isn’t as strong as it used to be
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Heading over some of the highest OHC in the basin and pretty close to peak season. If I were on the Yucatán I would be prepared for a major just in case
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just thinking about him. This is the best cape threat in a long time. Regardless of the final track it’s going to be a fun week at north east beach’s
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m not sure I gave enough importance to just how small the fetch area is with Henri. As of right now it’s hard pressed to create any swell of significance for the east coast. Assuming it both strengthens and enlarges at least some swell is on the way.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Ahhhhhh, I was just going to post about that in here. The current track forecast will lead to a period of captured fetch during the middle of the forecast. That and proximity will lead to bigger swells then one would think from a smallish tropical storm. Any increase in intensity will lead to a pretty sizable swell event. Similar to what we saw with 95’s Felix, the last true heart of the summer beach season prolific swell producer. Generally our hurricane produced dangerous swell events happen in September after the summer crowds and resultant tourists that cannot swim have gone for the summer.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Regardless of the direct US landfall threat this will be a prolific swell producer for the east coast. As it’s prime beach season the rip current threat will be real. Offshore hurricanes have killed dozens of people at east coast beaches over the years.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Considering earthquakes occur miles below the surface I would think it’s just a coincidence. fracking can cause earthquakes but they are much closer to the surface.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I just read the thread and do not see an explanation for the difference between Jay and Sutton. Care to elaborate? My guess would be Jays closer proximity to lake enhancement?
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Has to be. I looked like I jumped in a pool earlier just dragging around hoses
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m outside on the uws currently and feels much cooler then it did earlier in the day. Could be the enhanced breeze. I am rooting so hard for those storms to make it here in tacked. The more it rains the less if have to water these gardens
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s fairly wet currently here on the uws, so the park may struggle to the low 90s. After the very wet July foliage is very dense. As we have discussed at length unless something is done about the foliage around d the sensor the issue will only get worse moving forward.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Showers are hitting a brick wall before getting to the island. Currently sunny at Jones beach
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