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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Just in time for spring…. it takes several months for the cooling to occur.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    All they care about is snow. Wind and coastal flooding events generally do not receive much coverage until after the fact.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Damaging winds and major coastal flooding is hardly a non event. Plus with the ground frozen rock solid any heavy rain will quickly run of leading to potential flooding. I’m heading to Vermont anyway
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I still think something similar to 3/17 is possible maybe displaced 50 miles west. That would at least give the city some front end snow. Long Island and the jersey shore are toast in that scenario.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I hate to say this but when we have seen major storms like this in the past modeling tends to lock on early. I still think this ends up hugging the coast more then being inland though. That inland track is super rare. Totally different setup, but I like a muted version of March 93
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed. I mean basic understanding of climatology shows how rare a track like the gfs is. I mean we are talking Sandy rare. Storms like to hug the coast or go west of the mountains. If we start seeing some cutter tracks then it’s time to worry about rain in Vermont. Otherwise keep an open mind
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    KFOK West Hampton just had one of its incredible temp rise events. 8 to 28 in less then an hour.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    80% coastal hugger 10% classic benchmark blizzard 4% ots 1% inland inland is extremely rare, storms either cut west of the mountains or follow the coast
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Show me how many times a track like that has occurred… I’ll wait…. storms either hug the coast or go just west of the mountains. A coastal hugger ala 3/17 is the most likely outcome at this time
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely, I specifically remember the feb 94 storms going to the north shore for swim practice and being amazed at the difference in snow. That and the school closings
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed. This is a ski area dream storm. At least as modeled currently. We need to thread the needle perfectly for the coast to score. Like Jm said 3/17
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Super amped inland runner is def possible without NAO help. This is a pretty 80s pattern. People forget that’s why the coast struggled with snow despite more cold air around.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I must have been in the heart of the squall in Jericho. Vis was less the 1/8 for a bit and got a half inch. Went into work for snow removal on the uws (just in case) and only a dusting
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    March 18 was the last time we had a true nor’easter. There is nothing like heavy snow and coastal flooding. March 93 while technically an inland runner was fascinating watching 12” slush around in the streets
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty similar on the uws. 6” looks like a lock, and with that a warning criteria storm
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Classic mid winter snow event ongoing. Near perfect flakes with minimal wind on uws. Snow globe stuff, now to keep it around for the Arctic blast next week. Maybe even start a pack!
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The south shore does suck for snow. But this one has a great wind direction out of the NNE so despite water temps being in the mid 40s near shore it wilL not matter. snowing nicely uws. Expecting 4” here and 6@ at home on the SS
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    For the time being, just interesting. The radar beam height and what’s evaporating close to the ground
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Strange precip hole right in the area expected to see the highest totals.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just thinking about yesterday’s event and deep snow cover in south Jersey. Had that not been there temps may not have cut it city southeast
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s a thing of beauty for peak climo. Allot would have to go wrong for us not to score in that pattern.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s generally the case in these types of setups. A couple hours of 1-2”/hr rates adds up fast. We have been so spoiled the last two decades with blockbusters that we forget this is a bread and butter event for our area, ask the 80s.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Even with temps now above freezing I’m having a ton of ice issues on campus. Luckily it’s winter break. Yesterday’s 19 really chilled paved and brick surfaces and it just takes time and a lot of salt to stop.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s a good call after getting burned Monday. 3” is just enough to plow and shovel, especially since it will be accumulating on all surfaces. Often in marginal event’s especially here in the city you may have 6” on the grass but on really an inch or two of slush on the pavement. There is still a decent upside depending on where banding sets up, someone in our area will see 8”.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You can include the city itself in that currently. On the uws currently sleet and freezing rain mix. Paved surfaces with a crunchy glaze. Not sure how long we can hold on to this.
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