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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You’re definitely in the game, a track to your west could be especially devastating. This long track storms always seem to be very east of the center impact based wind and surge wise. lees looking to reform its core nicely right now.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Looks like the shear is finally abating, I wouldn’t be shocked to see another explosive round of intensification in the next 48 hours.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    At Jones beach right now and it’s absolutely oppressive even right on the ocean. Full sunshine and not a drop of rain has fallen here the last few days.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s why Intensity forecasting is still an imperfect science. nHc had this going to 185 tonight. More likely 125. I still expect another round of RI Saturday night into Sunday before it’s rounds the bottom and turns north. At which time it will weaken again, but greatly expand.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    As per usual everything hits a brick wall right around the city. We haven’t had more the. A few showers on the uws. Let’s see if that changes
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed, there is no secondary eyewall yet. I think one will occur over the weekend though. After which time lee has its best shot at peak intensity while north of PR before it eventually reaches the Franklin cold wake. After that point as it making the turn north it should really start to increase in size and may just barely be a major. The thing is for practical coastal implications a storm at 115mph with hurricane force winds extending 100 miles from the center will produce larger swells than lee yesterday at 165mph with hurricane force winds extending 20 miles.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    0.00” on the island .01” at cpk. Coastal waters are warm again so I’m surprised things fell apart that prolifically.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Let’s say lee drops to sub 900. Completely unprecedented in that part of the atlantic. It could hypothetically affect larger scale systems by the shear nature of its strength.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Carol, 54 was a major. But the point remains the same. I really like an Eduardo 96 type track for this one. Close but no cigar.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s been dry right along the coast for the last week. That’s enough to help the park at least be within the ball park….
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This pretty much sums it up. And why majors are so rare in the north east. Most of our storms are coming up from the Carolina’s having weakened due to land interaction. That’s why 38 was so special, it bypassed the normal disruption and came in directly from the ocean.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think the large outer bands are a sign that this will be an above average size storm too. Typhoon tip in the west pac is a great example of an enormous circulation with a powerful small inner core.
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Major wash overs and flooding. Spent the day yesterday digging out burried snow fence. Based on what happened with bill in 08, it doesn’t take a direct hit to do damage. That storm stripped the beach and flooded the lots behind the boardwalk under sunny skies. It was bigger (larger fetch are and closer) then Franklin. All of which seemed a certainty with lee regardless of a hit.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    One thing is certain with lee this far out. This is a beach rearrange situation. Major major, beach erosion event is set in stone
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The big take away from this storm, regardless of if it ever makes landfall on the east coast, is it’s huge eventual size will cause allot of water to move towards the coast in the form of extremely long period swells. This is going to be a major beach erosion event. Also, lee looks to Miss the bulk of the cold wake left by Franklin. a very memorable coastal event is on the way
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Gert is currently being absorbed into Idalia in a perfect example of the Fujiwara effect. Cool to watch on satellite
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Hopefully this avoids the cold wake left by Franklin. I would love to see a long track major just miss. Major swell producing event as I’ll be on vacation from my real job and life guarding full time at Jones beach Ny. Timing couldn’t be better.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m right on board with you. I think this has the potential to be a huge ACE maker, and another prolific swell producer for the east coast.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I agree. Surge flooding in places like the Tampa area. Not news worthy because who cares if someone got 6” of water in their house but, for that owner that could mean 10,000%+ of ripping out carpets/floors. We have seen it so many times on the south shore of Long Island. (Not mentioning the S word)
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I don’t think 100, but there was an extended heat wave in the late 1800s that killed lots of people. I’m sure someone could add the specifics
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Full wash overs at Jones beach. Surf isn’t incredibly large (6-8’) but the long periods and southerly direction are causing the water to come completely over the berm and flood the entire beach with several feet of water all the way to the boardwalk. This evenings high tide should come the highest.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Jones beach is completely flooded as expected. This evenings high tide should really cause some issues as the swell is peaking.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just checking the area likely to get the largest surge on google maps. This has to be the least developed coastal area on the entire east/gulf coast. For once we get to watch a storm explode and not feel that back of the mind guilt about loss of life. Even inland it’s going to pass between Tallahassee and Gainesville. It wouldn’t surprise me if monetary losses are larger in the Carolina’s then Florida with this one.
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