LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left. I think this ends up being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal.
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Absolutely one of the most boring runs of weather we have ever seen. Hopefully just a fluke and not a sign of a 01/02 style winter incoming .
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It’s always been a risky place to host a World Cup event so early despite their excellent snow making. Think where else in the world your racing at 3500-2000’, it’s usually at least 6,000’+. What is worrying me about this winter is the drought coming back. We are back in that low precip pattern again. And seeing 01/02 used as an analog isn’t very comforting. .
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While most of this is correct it’s more like .75% of the words fresh water. 75% would be Antarctica. Looks like the early ski season is going to suck. We need a flip late month. We can have a cold snowy winter and Europe a warm winter. .
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Long Island is about to get smoked. Good drought busting rains .
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Central & Eastern Pacific Thread
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Windspeed's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Perfect cat 4 micro cane based on current satellite . -
I have an extensive tropical garden here on campus on the uws and everything is fine. I’m talking actual tropical plants too. I was a little worried the low dews and wind might bother them but we should go deep into November before I dig them up and pot them and give them out to professors for their offices over the winter. I’ll call it adopt a plant. .
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Pretty bullish considering the long range. But hey, they provide a service for the hardcore ski/ride community. .
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That’s always been my issue with the way we classify storms. It shouldn’t be based solely on winds. Ian currently has the surge potential of a normal cat 2 based on IKE, this will be a major disaster for SC. I think it makes a run for costliest hurricane of all time .
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Can someone link it? I don’t have it saved. Ian definitely build a nice surge on its north side based on buoy readings I have been looking at. That easterly fetch with the high pressure gradient is a very rare setup this far south. Something more like you would see in New England during some of the classic nor’easters. Sc is going to be another major damage area. As JM and I have noted as we both lived in Long Beach Ny, salt water flooding in itself is a disaster as you need to gut down to the studs to properly repair .
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Exactly, I have a bachelor party in MTK. If it’s going to be ruined let’s get a good soaking. It’s certainly on the table. But I could see a feb 5-6 10 situation as well .
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I’m sure it will somehow find a way on the south shore. This isn’t a lock yet. .
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I think this has a shot at eclipsing Katrina for the most outlying Us hurricane. Naples Alone is a very wealthy area. All the homes with salt water flooding need to be gutted. .
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Water temps in the high 80s will do that. It’s a new era. Allot of the it’s Florida we know hurricanes crowd is in for a big surprise .
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Completion is unlikely with land interaction and shear. A larger wind field will increase surge issues as IKE increases though. So it’s a double edged sword. .
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Exactly. This is similar to what we saw with Katrina and more recently Fiona. When a storm is moving the same direction for an extended period of time, you have captured fetch. Where the storm caries with it, it’s enhanced sea state. And it’s moving over the warmest waters in the basin currently. We may have a true beast on our hands this time tomorrow .
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Ended with .01”. And yes it is incredible. The most localized intense drought you could dream up. I wonder if it has anything to do with increased water temps. Which would make sense, in that a place like Florida will constantly see convention from and sit just a few miles from the beach. We’ll see what strataform season brings. I doubt this can continue .
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.00” at the wantagh meso. Really just a bad joke at the point. .05” maybe with the tail End .
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Try 60mph. And it was a stronger storm during its tropical origins. It almost certainly had a fully intact inner core during its first land fall on eastern Long Island. I don’t think the lowest pressure was sampled either and was probably similar to Fiona. So both peak wind and surge were higher but in a small area just east of the track. What fiona had that 38 didn’t, was a much larger wind field and a lot more captured fetch. Hence the Terrible damage east of you along the coast. Regardless when winds are over 100mph your going to cause failure of almost all hardwood trees. .
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.40” at the wantagh meso. For once the south shore wasn’t shut out. Big waves tomorrow from fiona! .
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Should be one of the largest swells in years. Lots of wash overs and beach erosion. Long period swells are very energetic. .
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I’m just trying to wrap my head around what’s going to happen to sable island. If there is a worst place in the world to be during a storm of this magnitude it’s there. I hope they evacuate the 3 people (park workers) that live there. This is a game changer there .
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Sable island is in big trouble. I’m not saying it is completely washed away but seriously altered. The captured fetch in that scenario will produce waves up to 100’ and a ridiculous surge. .
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That sure was. I have a feeling we will See the rubber band snap back at some point. The south shore desert will run off like a champ and lead to epic basement flooding. .
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Agreed. You would want to see a cat 5 moving up to really get a 4 there. Luckily for them it’s a wealthy island with some of the best infrastructure in the world. Even wave and surge wise they are protected by offshore reefs. Great place to case a cane. Either way this is a prolific wave producer for the east coast so if anyone is coastal check out the waves later in the week. You will thank me. .
