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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’ll be at Stratton today-Sunday. I’ll give you the report later! Not promising at my house at 1,000’ so far with 2” of slop but another 1,000’-2,850’ may do wonders
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Light snow and 32 degrees about 2” of pure cement at 1000’ SVT, lost allot to non accumulating white rain earlier last night. West Townshend
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Light snow at 1000’ west Townsend VT. Going to be a pure blue bomb at this elevation, hopefully the power holds
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This one screams SVT. The good thing about Stratton is top elevation is 3850’ higher then anything south of Killngton. I’m on the way up soon. My house is at 900’ though, should be an interesting one there
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This is the one to watch for sure. A variety of high impacts not just snow. Coastal flooding and beach erosion on a level we haven’t seen in years. We have had a long run of swell and resultant erosion already this month, including this current storm.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’ll be at my house in the southern greens of Vt. Could easily jackpot in the 20+ range. We do really well on an east upslope flow.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m on the same page. We really need water temps to cool to start getting the coast in the game. Like bluewave has been saying, anytime there’s a primary in the Midwest the winds ahead of any transfer will torch the coast.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Burst of moderate snow with big flakes in north lynbrook, coating now
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. I made sure to get on it early today. First few runs were great with natural snow falling at Stratton. Finally felt like winter. By 1030 it was scraped off and I called it a day
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Driving back from Vermont the rain snow line was just NE of the Ct Ny border one thing I did notice is the tops of the 57th street super talls looked to be obscured in snow above 800-1000’ I wish we had a station on top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’. Probably be a few inches up there from this
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    About an inch with continuous moderate snow at Stratton in SvT. Meanwhile at my house 15 miles east it’s just cloudy.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed, that’s gotta be the least chance of verification snow map of all time. I guess it’s seeing confluence causing the lesser totals to the NE. Highly highly unlikely.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed, as long is we stay low amplitude in any direction we can get it done. Track will be key anything tucked will torch the coast as coastal waters are still in the 50s
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    NYC 40” EWR 48” MMU 55” ISP 36” SWF 60”
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    To me this makes perfect sense given global warming. Reduced arctic sea ice means a lag in northern hemisphere cooling. Throw in record offshore water temps and it’s a recipe for delayed winter. I think this just intensifies in the future. I have no problem tossing the first half of December. Given the long range forecast at least we aren’t looking at a 01/02 style warm ratter .
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah but with this setup suppression is more of a worry then inland runners. with that pattern I just don’t see how we don’t score at least one 6”+ event area wide. It may be several events with different areas doing better then others. But we all end up with at least one warning event. this might be our first white Christmas at the coast in ages
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I had a couple 40ish gusts on the uws in some wind tunnel spots, other then that very meh
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Let’s see if we can get a legit wind event. It’s been a while as many recent events have underperformed.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    True, it’s going to be a battle between forcing if this pans out. You can get some wide spread snows with that. Starting in the Midwest and moving all the way to the east coast.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We don’t want to go too overboard or it’s suppression depression.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, I’m not sure what the obsession is with a -nao. It’s far from the most important driver for snow. We have seen Plenty of -nao wasted due to lack of available cold. And when they are too strong they often favor the mid Atlantic and we smoke cirrus. The old saying goes show me the cold I’ll show you the snow for a reason. back in the 1800s nyc would see wall to wall snow coverage from late November to March even during average snow seasons (approximately 35” at the time)
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Until we fully develop quantum computing its impossible to handle the amount of calculations necessary to handle long range forecasting. I’m sure we will get there one day, but that’s decades away. Heat island was in full effect this morning, icy car when I left Lynbrook for work at 5, almost feels warm in the city in comparison.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s still early for us to be looking for snow. Though that early December period historically has had some good events. But up north is prime time. Hopefully this doesn’t turn into an early grinch storm
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Excellent. We don’t need a 970 inland runner melting all the snow that fell up north. Great early start to the ski season. I’d be up but have work obligations.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, If It was September different story. The broad nature of the system means slow strengthening at best. This is a cat 1. Tops
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