LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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The super super duper El Niño is most likely on the way. There’s just too much heat around to sustain La Niña (even though it’s wind based). If NYC were to ever see a 50”+ storm that’s how you get it done, with an atmospheric river flowing in to a nor’easter with a nice source airmass
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Thank you. With zero to back it up. We need the few good posters left or this board is shot. Walt, keep up excellent informative posts. Real meteorology vs. agenda biased modelology. frozen may be a stretch for the coast, but this board includes areas inland and elevated enough to be in the game
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Merry Christmas everyone. Here’s to threading the needle and scoring a couple moderate events the next few weeks!
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They are very far north so all it takes in the proper flow and your closely linked to arctic air with little modification. As far as the summer heat, I would think some of those extreme temps include some downslope compression. Typical Christmas weather in our new climate. Meanwhile an ice storm is underway in southern Vermont at my house there.
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I’m starting to like 11/12 as an analog for this winter. We may be able to pull off a wintry week with a moderate even in the mid January, peak climo time frame. Then it’s just warm. The big takeaway about our new climate is, stuck patterns can suck just as much as they can be amazing. If your a snow lover in the PAC NW, this is a dream pattern.
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Prediction of the first snowfall for the NYC area.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to MJO812's topic in New York City Metro
I know your joking, but it’s only a matter of time before we have our first ever 0 winter -
Yeah, shades of 01/02-11/12-19/20 are definitely in the air. We really need a full scale pattern reversal. That might not happen until we have our next Nino. But your just not going to cut it with such a persistent -pna. I’m not the type to throw in the towel, but generally a rat winter shows itself early on.
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11” seems very high. I was at Stratton this weekend and we had about 5”. It just wasn’t enough to really rebound the mountain. There were some major ice challenges by the early afternoon
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Absolutely no shot K has 61 and Okemo 21 when they are only about 30 miles apart and in a very similar geographical area with similar weather. The reality is probably something like 40 and 30. I’ve noticed at Stratton the last 2 winters snow measuring has been conservative to almost under measuring.
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That looks totally workable with the coldest climo of the year.
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Very dry, if we do not start getting more precip soon brush fires will become an issue on dry windy days.
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Looks allot like spring. Luckily good times on the way. Spending the day after to Christmas through New Years up in Vt. Very exiting!
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Or we could go full 01/02,11/12 if the polar vortex stays strong. We will need a major disruption to drop the AO. This winter could easily be a full ratter for us.
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You know things are dismal on the winter weather front when the entire main thread is dominated by snowman.
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Which means nothing when there are no systems to take advantage. Cold and dry is the worst. Some of the most boring weather possible for this time of year. We can’t even get a strong cutter
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Actually had a few flakes mixed in with a rain shower on the uws About 2 hours ago. So first flakes in nyc
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I’ll take the accumulations in BC mountains please. Looks like strong winds Friday night with gusts to 50 possible. That should take care of the rest of the leaves in the city.
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The park hit 32 between hours. My annuals on campus are still alive though. So I wouldn’t call it a true freeze at least on the uws
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Thanks for posting this! I have always been fascinated with west Hampton. Sometimes it almost seems unbelievable. Almost like a mini chinook.
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29 in wantagh for the coldest of the season. Still only managed 35 at the Park. So the growing season continues on the uws. I just started potting my elephant ears here on campus for the winter.
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Exactly. The only way the coast is seeing snow anytime soon is with a perfectly placed powerful low. Think post Sandy storm. Water temps are ridiculously warm for this time of year. The flow has to be straight north. Any east at all and it’s torch city.
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Growing season still going strong on the uws. I still have tropicals out on campus
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Anyone looking for coastal snow in November needs to understand climatology. It happens, but it’s rare, even in the past during a colder climate.
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Best thunderstorm for so late in the year I have seen on the uws. Legit pea sized hail and solid lightning. Winds only topped out around 40mph though.
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That’s exactly what happened during the February 1899 beast. Look into that storm if your interested in all kinds of crazy snow in the south. It just missed us up here but gave 30”+ to cape may.
