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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I do not think a change in track is what we need, temps are just too warm. What we need is a stronger low with stronger dynamics. At this lead time that’s still on the table. But the airmass isn’t going to cut it at the coast without a bomb.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s allot of white rain for the coast. Verbatim this is a big hit inland and elevated, more like something you see early or late season where you need some elevation to gets temps to workout. We would want to see this really bomb to draw in colder air and create its own cold pool. Plenty of time to get things to work, but I wouldn’t be too optimistic outside of our NW guys
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    2.5” Uws. Shooting for 3” and it’s going to be close
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Where were you the last 10 years? 14/15 started on 1/20 as the foremost example. Patterns like to lock in our current climate and a change to cold is on the way. Find the cold find the snow... Even last years disaster had a nice 10 day blitz. This is not 01-02 or 11-12.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Huh? For all intents and purposes it hasn’t started. Wall to wall winters are super rare here and will be even more so moving forward. Be happy with a solid 30-45 day period on the way
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Still waiting on that storm track change. Other then that this one can still produce our first low end plowable event if it comes in like a wall. Feb 14 showed us what a wall of snow can do even right at the coast. It will be more of a now cast to see just how much lift we can get at the onset. A quick 2-4” more north less south scenario seems reasonable right now
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This screams last March to me right along the coast. (I’m talking immediate south shore and jersey shore) where East winds are the kiss of death and you scratch an inch of slush and 10 miles inland it’s another world. We really need to speed things up.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Looks like those posts were made just before the winds swung around to ESE and really went off the scale. Up until that point (to a novice) it looked like we dodged a bullet. The tide posts I do not get, high tide hadn’t occurred and he was claiming victory. Either was that was the most epic bust on this forum of all time. He was like the captain on the titanic saying we can still make it when the ship was up in the air.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Way too much time to be locking in solutions. This is thread the needle. Allot has to go right.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Anything that early would be a bonus, I would like to be inland and elevated for that. Once the pattern fully changes let’s see if we can rearrange the storm track. The last thing we want to see is, going from cutters and huggers to suppression depression.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Just follow the trends of the last few years, even decade. Post 1/20 has been the sweet spot. Starting with Jan 15
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah, your going to need good rates. So any real impact is south of the city where those rates will occur. Should look great in the trees again. Obviously even a 25 mile shift north will have huge implications.
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Best bet is to hope for the best but expect the worst until if and when we see a pattern change. Otherwise it’s wash rinse repeat.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It was bound to happen eventually. We need major improvements in the PAC and or a strat warming event to salvage the rest of the winter.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I had one of my favorite mornings at Stratton of all time yesterday. I made sure to be there for first chair and had the place to myself until about 10 when everyone started showing up after New Years party’s. The 2” of sleet and ice had filled in gaps and 6” of snow over the following two days made for deceptively great conditions. Obviously it wasn’t enough to call it epic as it gets beat hard by afternoon. But for that golden 1.5 hours it was truly special.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s exploded already more then likely, we just haven’t seen it yet. For everyone complaining about the lack of snow you do not have to go far to get to deep winter. I just saw every possible winter weather precip type over a three day period in Vermont. 1/4” ice storm, 2” of sleet including a sleet thunderstorm with 6 bolts. 4” of snow, a light snow break that lasted 24 hours and added another inch. And finally a snow squall that dropped 2” in 20 minutes.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Had 6 amazing bolts and some of the heaviest and largest sleet I have ever witnessed in southern Vermont. Really impressive stuff.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Heavy sleet mixed with mangled flakes now in southern Vermont. Looks like the column is finally cooling
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Sleet and snow grains at 1200’ in southern Vermont. About .10” of accretion last night while it was all freezing rain.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty brutal conditions at Stratton today with limited terrain and shave ice on ice. Monster crowds and lots of newbs made for allot of crashes. They actually stoped spinning the upper mountain lifts early when it got too ridiculous. Tomorrow will be interesting to say the least.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Thanks! I appreciate you taking a look. I guess it is clouds and some snow. Normally there are lights on the cams. I wonder if mountain ops turned the lights off so people will not look at the precip types all night! Regardless it’s been an interesting night here for sure! Still just freezing rain at the house at 1200’
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Interesting, it’s dumping snow at 3800’ now on the Stratton summit cam. I guess the warm layer is stuck somewhere in the 3000’ range. https://www.stratton.com/the-mountain/webcams
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I just had the worst drive of my life heading from dinner at Stratton to my house at 1200’ outside Jamaica Vermont. Even with a truck in 4 wheel drive I had to drive 2 mph with one set of tires in the ditch for traction. I had never experienced ice like that on a road. Took 2 hours to go 3 miles. Moderate rain and 28 will do that.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Fits with the default pattern of the 2010s. It’s close the shades for a couple weeks at least.
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