LongBeachSurfFreak

First flakes of the season earlier on the UWS. It’s a start.

Back in the 90s this would have been a 100k outage event with lots of trees down. Events of this level seem to yearly now. the ocean was impressive with the straight onshore flow. Waves were breaking as far out as the eye could see well past any sand bars

Depends on the type of tree. The city planted tons of pears as replacements over the years and they hold their leaves extremely late, sometimes till Christmas. Almost all native species have lost their leaves with the exception of some oaks. If anything this years leaf drop was earlier then the past few as we had the cool shot in late October.

Fits a Niña look under normal circumstances. But what’s normal now? I’ll keep expectations low for now and hope for the best!

That’s nuts, stronger then anything during Isias. Anyone have the live power outage numbers?

Those are big power outage numbers coming out of Ohio and Michigan for leafless trees. Pretty high end event and on par with something you would usually see from a very strong storm, tropical or a derecho.

Beautiful low topped squall line out in Pa. They rarely verify for high winds but maybe this one produces. Pretty windy on the SS currently with gusts around 40mph consistently. We often see the strongest winds just before and after frontal passages in this these setups

Throw out the analogs. There are enough differences from the last two winters to offer some hope that we at least break the streak of no 6” or greater storms for the coast. The last two winters were epic fails south of the southern state.

We actually had some cool weather in October this year, which we didn’t have in last years. That really pushed everything forward. Even in the city trees are dropping quick.

I bet we see allot of gradient storms like the last few winter with low centers heading along 95 and snow north of 84. I think we could pull off a wintery stretch with some transient blocking. If I had to guess it’s when we don’t want it, sometime in March.

In this case it could very well mean wall to wall warmth ala 11/12. I think the best bet going in to this winter for snow lovers (and the snow obsessed like myself) Is to aim low and keep expectations in check.

Exactly. My elephant ear plants at home in Lynbrook took a hit and almost completely defoliated. On campus on the UWS the same plants look great with no damage. So the city hasn’t had a real freeze yet. I actually like the warm November. Having another November with record cold would mean we are still stuck in that awful multi year pattern. I would take any winter over last winter. It was that bad at the coast.

I’m thinking more like 145 knots 920. Unless we see even more tightening before arrival. Water temps support super high end.

One month later and the city would be getting crushed right now. The rain has that recently melted flakes look to it.

Seems reasonable. The right side of the storm will have enhanced winds do to fast forward movement. This is going to be a big power outage event well inland. This portion of the gulf has been a down right hurricane factory this season. If these waters had been undisturbed Zeta would likely be a major.

Riiiiiiiggghhhhhtttttt The storm signal is there

Came in to some damage on campus, one pear tree down and multiple temporary tents thrown and destroyed. Winds had to have been at least 50mph locally

I noticed that driving last night. Basically heavy drizzle. I’ll take it. Anything that adds moisture to the upper soil level is a good thing until we get some real rain this week.

I was lucky to surf the largest East coast waves I have ever ridden yesterday thanks to Teddy. Solid 15-18’ faces at a rock reef in Montauk NY. Teddy has been a prolific swell producer and illustrator of why fetch matters more then maximum wind speed. As teddy’s max wind speeds decreased its enlarging wind field was more able to impart energy into the ocean.

It’s going to be a hell of allot more impactful then you think. Major beach erosion producer which will likely throw many multimillion dollar beach homes in the ocean.

Given the right conditions you could easily see a Patricia type storm there. I wonder what the upper bounds are for intensity and pressure, sub 850 220mph?

Long period swells from Patrica worked their magic and caused washovers and erosion. Long period swells (over 12 seconds) are extremely energetic and surge up and over the beach. I had the pleasure of riding those swells last night and it was a memorable session at Gilgo beach.

4.59” wantagh meso. Lots of flooding at Jones beach where I am currently

A recurving major would be fantastic (as a surfer) but not where I would look. The MDR off Africa has clearly been a mess this season. If and when the next major forms it’s likely to be closer to land. The OHC is out there, we just need a storm to enter an area of low shear and it’s off to the races. I wouldn’t rule out a cat 5

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. Over the years some big offshore CV hurricanes have killed more people on the east coast then many would believe. Rip currents caused by the resultant swell are real killers. Some classics like Gabrielle in 89 had double digit deaths. Large battering waves can also cause erosion and beach washovers. Bill in 08 caused a ton of damage at Jones Beach NY where I have been a life guard for 22 years. The East Coast with it’s sandy beaches is very prone to erosion caused by high energy long period swells. I have watched the beach washed clean (all snow fencing destroyed) under sunny sky’s on numerous occasions. Moral of the story, I find the term fish storm annoying.