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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?
  2. SnowGoose69
    The main difference is the 870-950 layer. It’s ever so slightly colder in those areas than ATL is. If precip rates are heavy though I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL itself saw an hour or so of moderate snow
  3. SnowGoose69
    That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW. It could have been an MA event but that’s about it
  4. SnowGoose69
    It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.
  5. SnowGoose69
    We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña. Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way
  6. SnowGoose69
    The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough. My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens
  7. SnowGoose69
    The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Anything which has impacted our region has come NW. I definitely would agree some systems that ultimately were nothing or slid well OTS didn’t follow this trend but everything that dropped QPF between DCA-BOS has pretty much come NW late
  9. SnowGoose69
    You can just about guarantee every storm of this type will shift NW from day 4-5. it’s just a question how much
  10. SnowGoose69
    This shouldn’t really surprise anyone. Everything has had massive NW or N shifts all winter. The storm last weekend shifted 250 miles in the last 72 hours
  11. SnowGoose69
    I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60
  12. SnowGoose69
    If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.
  13. SnowGoose69
    They’ve done so many darn updates it’s hard to track. The January 2013 or 2014 update (I blocked the storm out of my mind) was right before the massive NYC bust and the model really struggled after that. Subsequent smaller upgrades have improved it and the upgrade in April 2019 appeared to solve that mid range overamp bias however the last 4 weeks that bias has returned again. In October thru December I thought for a time the upgraded improved it
  14. SnowGoose69
    No. This isn’t a Miller B event. There is a narrow possibility the NS interaction happens late enough for SNE but not NYC but that is a fairly unusual scenario with Miller As. I can count on one hand the number of times NYC has had a total miss with a Miller A and SNE has been destroyed due to late NS interaction or capturing. Now they may see way less snow like a 1/26/87 but not a total shutout
  15. SnowGoose69
    The UK/Icon solutions aren’t realistic in this pattern. This will either miss or it’ll phase with the NS and be a monster. I don’t really see any other possibility
  16. SnowGoose69
    It still is. The Euro has 3 notable biases. At least the Op. Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180. We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof
  17. SnowGoose69
    With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway. The ICON scenario isn’t really logical. In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative
  18. SnowGoose69
    You don’t want the latter scenario anyway because that would likely be the warmest even in the case of a track offshore. The ICON basically shows that. Mostly southern stream but you just can’t get the cold air in without the NS involvement to an extent
  19. SnowGoose69
    The Day 10 ridge is transient. That trof is into the East by day 12
  20. SnowGoose69
    The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe
  21. SnowGoose69
    It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d. I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident
  22. SnowGoose69
    It’s fairly rare to see the AK vortex setup in mid or late winter though. That is more commonly a feature that comes in November or December and then never leaves. They tend to be more transient when they develop later
  23. SnowGoose69
    One other time. In either very late November or early December there was a stretch of 2-3 days where models looked very good in the 11-15 and then they immediately flipped to show the warm shift in mid December.
  24. SnowGoose69
    The forecast was 1-2 changing to rain in January 87 if I remember right.
  25. SnowGoose69
    That was likely due to the bad forecast. A ton of people will take off, take public transport, work from home if a snow event is forecast. When it’s not it gets ugly because everyone goes in and then is driving in it. 12/05/03 and 1/2011 were bad too when we got those unforecast bad front ends of the storms
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