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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Upton actually never changes LGA over to all rain they have RASN from 00-03Z and it ends
  2. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is this event will have minimal sleet if any
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this is a huge factor. It really does make a big difference. It’s also not overly strong. It can screw up snow ratios though as someone else here pointed out
  4. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip. Other models don’t really have that. The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week. I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after. That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4
  5. SnowGoose69
    The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify
  6. SnowGoose69
    This event is entirely dependent on how much precip falls. As of now the temps outside of LI due to south flow aren’t a problem. PSU you in the mid Atlantic forum has been nailing the QPF scenario all week with the storm based off the jet orientation. If you look at the 18 GFS you could see why it produces more snow and QPF. It has the 250kt jet oriented perfectly in a WSW orientation to break out snow across our area. Meanwhile the NAM that 250kt jet core doesn't get going til after 21Z and a result by that time it’s warming up
  7. SnowGoose69
    79-95 was mostly all positive NAO winters. I think 83-84 and 84-85 averaged negative but barely so.
  8. SnowGoose69
    I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even half right
  9. SnowGoose69
    This late in the winter, even one this mild probably not because water temps are not as warm as they'd be on 12/1. But 5 or 6 vs 1-2 may happen
  10. SnowGoose69
    This is a tricky event because the south flow and position of the high. Its definitely a case where EWR can see 6 and JFK 0 but sometimes here the southerly gradient is overestimated on models beyond 60-72 because what you end up with in the end is still a bit of a funky CAD type sig that sets up turning winds more ENE or forcing a lighter gradient than what the globals see a 3-4 days out
  11. SnowGoose69
    91-92 had basically nothing until mid March
  12. SnowGoose69
    That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east
  13. SnowGoose69
    That was the misleading map of the day as it was the change from the prior day EPS for the same time. The anomalies are still below normal in the east
  14. SnowGoose69
    This is more or less what occurred last year but on a severe scale. The trip through 7 was so short that by this stage we already were seeing the models at Day 14-16 go warmer as the wave went back into 3 or 4 within 2 weeks. This is a longer trip through 7 and might re emerge into 6 which isn’t quite as terrible
  15. SnowGoose69
    It’s only an Op run but at 90 hours on the 06z Euro you can really see what I was concerned about yesterday. That thing looks like it’s about to get grinded up. Not due to confluence but just the general setup is likely not going to enable this to have the shortwave energy or WAA to blast a snow shield way out ahead of it before everyone sees their winds go southerly. Someone in the MA forum posted the idea as well that he would rather see this thing at this stage be more dynamic because even though it’ll guarantee more areas flip over it should produce more WAA snow in advance in such a setup
  16. SnowGoose69
    The south winds are a big problem. That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light. In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.
  17. SnowGoose69
    12/15/03 was similar to 11/2018. It came straight up from the south or south southwest
  18. SnowGoose69
    The upper ceiling for the metro on events like this is usually 6-7 inches and that accounts for a small percentage of them. Most fall between 1-4
  19. SnowGoose69
    I have a pretty broad termination for SWFE. I more or less would consider this to be one. I’ve seen people call events like 12/5/02 SWFEs though and to me that is extending it too far.
  20. SnowGoose69
    It did brief but the MJO immediately went back to 3-4-5 and once we were within 7-10 days of the pattern change the 11-16 started showing signs of it ending...that could happen again here too but it won't be as fast. I would not be surprised though if by 2/5-2/10 the MJO re-emerges into 3-4-5 and this is only a 2-3 week change.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I warned people this morning that if the Thursday system ends up stronger and bombs out too much off Canada there is a possibility this weekend system could get meat grinded and shredded.
  22. SnowGoose69
    The system also approached from the S-SW. Overrunning events that do that here are always snowier than ones which do not. The ideal setup is the high centered right around Portland Maine or slightly NE of that with a system coming from as much a southerly direction as possible. Anything that comes more from the west or southwest the isentropic upglide is not usually as strong leading to less intense rates and banding and often the best WAA lift goes to our north overall.
  23. SnowGoose69
    This has potential to be meat rung if the Thursday system continues to blow up like this. I don't see any scenario where we get a transfer far enough south where we stay all snow but we could see a setup where this gets grinded and ends up being much weaker with less QPF
  24. SnowGoose69
    There won't be much sleet with this as shown now. This is snow to rain with probably a short period of sleet
  25. SnowGoose69
    This is also one of the deepest Highs in place ahead of an overrunning event since basically 11/2018. All events since have more or less flipped to sleet immediately due to the air mass being horrible. We are still 2 days though from being able to seriously look at this
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