SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Its hard for me to believe with that EPO ridge and the Greenland ridge that even with a -PNA the temp departures would be that high...thats a fairly good source region of the air mass
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This is the first time in about 5 years I do not recall the Euro overamping a storm from 84-120
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
SnowGoose69 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I think in both 18-19 and 19-20 it showed that a bunch and then would ultimately loop right back to 5-6 again -
Considering how small the Euro incrementally moves though its changes with the surface low from 54-66 were significant. I think in the end it'll bust pretty badly relative to what it was showing last night or yesterday which was more or less a total whiff
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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion
SnowGoose69 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
When the NAM consistently shows the same idea beyond 48 it has a tendency to be onto something. I usually discount the NAM when it makes wild run to run shifts but since the 18Z run yesterday it has not wavered a whole lot. -
Still a fairly sloppy setup, even on models which do show something. There may be a shadow zone somewhat as the bulk of the snow depicted by most guidance outside of ERN areas is not even from the coastal. Sometimes as you get closer that screw zone becomes more evident and bigger on models. If anyone in the metro pulls 2 or more inches from this one its a big W though
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The ICON may have ticked ever so slightly NW or organized and the RGEM as well but they werent extremely notable moves
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Ensembles have consistently been too strong with SE ridging past D10 the last few weeks...there has been a tendency to try to show a shutout pattern beyond D10 but when we get closer in we more end up in a poor pattern vs a total shutout pattern
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We are basically in the stretch of another 1971-1975 or 1949-1956 the last few years...in general you are better off being out west. I think once we can get the AMO to flip negative we might be better off...not sure the Pac state is changing anytime soon...even El Nino winters right now might act La Nina like
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Some years they have remarkable accuracy at 3-6 weeks...others they'll just keep trying to revert to the seasonal climo or expected ENSO pattern and be wrong
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It does seem that operational runs really struggle when there is a -NAO though in that D5-10 range. Not that you can really trust Op runs that far out but they will tend to cut systems often and be too warm alot of the time at that range while the GEFS are showing a NAO OF -2
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It was a classic East based start. We also likely got aided somewhat by the blocking from the prior winter as well as the lag in the STJ. Often winters with consistent blocking or -NAO you’ll see the ensuing November and December the next year also have blocking, even if the indices for that winter don’t necessarily favor a -NAO on paper. Nov/Dec 96 and 2010 are good examples. The STJ lag has shown up before too after stronger El Niños to start the next winter. Even 93-94 some say the multi year nino from 90-93 may be why we were active that winter on a lag
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I think there is some degree of downslope but it’s not unusual to see them or Nashville be colder than us. Even in the 85 outbreak they got to like -9 or something insane in Atlanta while NYC was only -2
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it seems hard to use any solid rules anymore. In the 80s and before the tendency was as you mention. The 90s into the 2000s it was more torchy in December with cold Januarys then torch Februarys. Recent La Niñas have tended more to resemble the 80s and before pattern of cold early then warm
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It seems to me the ensembles have continually tried showing a torch beyond day 11-12 and constantly been having to correct cooler or to a less hostile pattern the last 2 weeks than they keep showing beyond that range
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The EPS actually beat the GFS for the current period we are in and headed into...the GFS 12 or so days ago was trying to flip the pattern more to a classic Nina and failed.
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Just a slight difference D14-16 on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS looks more like the GEFS though with a western trof
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GEFS continue to show the -NAO days 11-16 but problem is may be trof in west so it could be a somewhat dirty pattern, the -NAO would prevent any major SE ridge though
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I don't consider -1.5 which NYC was I think to be that cold. -3 or -4 below normal or more is where it begins in my mind
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That was the only storm that winter which got badly blown...when you consider you had the ETA which was 18 months in, the NGM the AVN and the Euro running once a day its amazing how well forecast most of the events that winter were.....the 12/19 event the mid level warm nose was missed for S LI but they still reached the expected amounts of 6-10 more or less.
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Ultimately it was not that cold of a winter though because that massive January thaw as well as 12/20-12/30 was somewhat warm too I think. There was some belief that 95-96 was a product precip wise of that long duration El Nino from 1990-94 more or less and we had a lag which enabled there to be so much juice and storms despite the La Nina
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I feel as if we see these posts every year for El Nino and La Nina in mid to late November and it never transpires. Its extremely rare to see a Nina Nino undergo any noticeable strengthening once you get this late into the fall.
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January 2014 or 2015 they reported 10SM -SN for like an hour
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Its interesting how again we seem to be seeing the tendency for fall or early winter blocking once again following a winter where the NAO predominantly was negative. We've seen that several times now in a fall or winter the last 25-30 years where the background state otherwise should not have favored it...ultimately in the end those years eventually do see a positive NAO state take over and I think we will this year by 1/15 or so. But 96-97/10-11, even Nov/Dec 2001 had a negative NAO for a good portion of the time.
