SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
SnowGoose69 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
The low taking a track NNW makes no sense...not that we have not seen it before but its rare for SFC lows to want to go anywhere near the spine of the Apps -
3/8/08 is only case I know of
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There is no way a low is tracking up the Apps. I sure could see a track from say over ERN NC to NYC but the low going from ERN NC to Scranton is not happening
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I only recall one case where this was this severe a disparity inside D5 and it was that epic January 2014 or 2015 bust in NYC/SNE on that system that never captured. The ensembles largely never wanted any part of that event but the GFS/GEFS never really did either. It was the Euro and all others selling it.
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It may be more warm AMO related possibly
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Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason
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Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting. Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.
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Yeah the ensemble looked nothing like it...it was an example though once the Pac jet gets strong of how you run into that same issue of the cold not pressing south at all...that can even happen without a SER if the Pacjet is strong enough
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Its happened numerous times the last 20 years, 09-10 and 10-11 winters it happened where there were 2 or 3 in a span of 2 weeks or less. 2/8 and 2/11 1994 though are the only cases I know of with 2 8 plus inch events in a span of 3 days or less
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Op Euro tried with the storm at 120 for sure but did not do it. was the closest its been so far though
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Yeah as a fairly young kid 1983 seemed ages back to me in 1996 but right now 2009 does not seem that long ago to me at all
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January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE. Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us.
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Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though
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It was a clipper...maybe 1/16/04....started 7-8pm, did not really get going though til close to midnight. We then cleared out too early the next day, got to like 18-19 vs the expected 14-15 and failed to go below 0 that night as a result. I think the low was either 0 or 1
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Chances are the pattern flips mild at some stage but typically its delayed after models even show it and they are yet to do that. At this point you'd think 2/1 is the earliest we see any major shift
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January 97 and 99 both flipped pretty hard but then reverted right back in February
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5.5 inches on .35 liquid
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Yeah for sure. Central Park ASOS which always has highly accurate LE numbers in snow events had .35 and reported 5.5 inches. So basically 15:1. LaGuardia’s 7.5-8 or whatever they got seems like it may be a tad high given EWR had 5 and JFK 5.5
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JFK snowing now
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Nothing especially meaningful will fall before 130-145 but it may start snowing in NYC metro in next 30 minutes very lightly
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The HRRR has definitely advanced start time up to as early as 0640-0645z now. Several hours back was closer to 08-0830
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Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if its 12-13:1 even at the coast...the 850-700 temps sure support that
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Its pretty similar in terms of speed/amounts to 2-17 and 4-2 2018, both events had much lousier air masses in place and the setups were not the same but I don't recall any other storms that dropped 6 plus in many areas in a shorter span than those did.
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Its impossible to know. The entire pattern and events over the preceding days would have evolved differently. But if you assume everything the same then yeah the evolution is slower and the storm probably exits slower and you have several more hours of snow
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E Nassau/W Suffolk would be my guess where you might verify a WSW but the confidence is not too high
