SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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A tad surprised the cone is not a bit more E on the right side there
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Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php
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Thru 54 the newest HWRF is averaging maybe 40-50 miles east of prior run but not much change
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CMC is a nose east thru 54 but its been more east of the GFS and closer to the Euro so far anyhow
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I saw someone point out on twitter that maybe a second and more less noticed change we've seen in recent years with TCs, maybe due to AGW, maybe not is that we've seen the insane RIs of storms become more common but we've also tended to see storms more often struggle for long periods in the TD to Cane phase in environments which otherwise seem favorable
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What the HWRF/HMON show is probably not realistic, only Patricia I believe due to an ERC weakened that much in that type of span...typically shear and dry air cannot take a storm down from 140kts to 40kts in 24-36 hours. 140kts to 85-90kts is more realistic but even that might be a stretch in that time window
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CMC is east this run
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It definitely was weakening to some degree because many areas did not see those winds mix down which tends to be a sign of a weakening storm but usually you can be sure if models, even the HWRF/HMON show crazy weakening or strengthening it tends to be overdone both ways most of the time
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Which probably means its wrong given models terrible performance in general with tropical cyclone intensity lol
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A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage
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The HWRF shows landfall E of Panama City
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Alot may depend on the size of the storm too...a smaller storm entering the Gulf would be less likely to pull dry air in off the continent. That said, in recent years most storms are large in size
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I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals
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Arisaig on the north coast of Nova Scotia gusted to 172 km/h 107mph
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Beaver Island gusted to 98mph at 0329Z
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If Beaver Island had had a peak wind of 82kts its likely Sable Island went above that at some point when the anemometer was failing
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Beaver Island now gusting to 76kts
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That won’t always mean weakening or sure however. I the last 5 or so years these systems approaching the northern Gulf have had a tendency to not weaken as frequently as they used to
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You almost wonder given the semi toss up status of both right now if this was a make it easier on the media move, not that Hermine is Isiashs or some other insanely hard name to pronounce. Would be funny if at 5pm or 8pm we get Ian anyway
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Andrew I guess is one example...I do not think there was one which hit FL from the Gulf though and then was a Cat 3 for NC/SC or New England...Donna may have been close
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I still think the Euro may be a tad too far east with its idea but that is a pretty bad track if this is a 3 or 4
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Environment Canada seems to have ended their TAFs for SI effective 12z...was interested to see what gusts they'd put in there. They have 75kts at Charlottestown from 05z. Hawkesbury has no official TAFs
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He may have meant from the Atlantic side...after Betsy in 65 it seemed majors hitting FL from the Atlantic side became increasingly more infrequent outside of Andrew and 2004
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Ultimately if it missed the US it would probably never have been much of anything regardless...at least as far as most on this forum rate storms...it would probably be a Cat 2 at best when it hit Cuba because if its hooking that quick it would not have been over water in the Caribbean long enough to become a 3 4 or 5
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Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now
