SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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NYC actually did not hit 90 til about 455pm
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It probably did given it was 89 on 2 separate hours
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FRG/JFK warmer than LGA/NYC at 17z
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Not so much due to instability issues as it is the front sort of washes/slows/semi stalls as the surface low outruns it over NRN New England so even Queens/W Nassau may not see much...might see a nasty looking line in NJ and it just will crap out as it goes east.
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This has to be the worst NYC disparity I ever saw...you'd think alone the SW flow would just advect enough for them to go to 92 or so
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May get another 90 at NYC today, at least officially
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It'll probably basically fall off to nothing though by January which will make the winter forecast virtually impossible this year.
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Seems most models now agreeing enough morning junk around that we may not see much later on...if we do could be 00-02z or so..the idea of a squall line 21-23z or so is losing ground on most guidance
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Yeah there was basically sleet/freezing rain from late evening on the 8th into very early AM on the 9th then it was sunny that day and the 10th. I believe EWR never flipped to sleet on the 11th while most of the south shore of Queens/Bklyn/LI did by 12-1pm that day...even so LGA and NYC I think only recorded like 10-12 inches and there was no notable banding with that storm so EWR seeing that much more is certainly a mistake of some kind
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Yeah that total always baffled me. I have no idea how they managed to come up with that one
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Yeah I forget when they moved it. My guess is probably 1996. I was also told once snow measurements prior to the 93-94 winter are questionable (yeah we know they are questionable after too lol) but the reason told to me was they used to measure somewhere downstairs from the NWS office up til 92-93 and the measurements were likely too low most times
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Its probably safe to assume the Saturday FROPA will be later than currently shown...most models consensus is near 21-02Z but in summer its rare models at this range are not about 12-18 hours too fast. If true it probably will lower potential of severe if its Sun AM vs Sat eve
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They cut away a ton of the junk around it too so I have wondered if maybe more its a sensor issue now
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89 now at NYC. Would think a good chance 90 happens
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If the extended HRRR is right Wed could be mainly dry and it pushes fairly far east. The RGEM/Euro are furthest west overall.
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88 now but still not accurate
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Given it is likely to be a similar La Nina to last winter that is unlikely
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Will be pretty funny to see LGA go to like 85 when winds shift SW ahead of the front
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As I said yesterday this bore some resemblance to 12-11-93...difference is no negative tilt this time so the snow band is going to rotate through quickly. Interesting how in both cases almost 30 years apart the models did not see the snow correctly associated with the vort/trof and incorrectly placed too much precip earlier.
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A retired met always used to tell me that rain to snow events here where you see significant sleet or snow mixing in when you’re still 38-39-40 often turn out to be much worse than expected. We’ll see if he’s right. I still don’t expect more than 2 near the city
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Models do not diverge til 14Z or later so really won't be able to get a sense where this is going til then. The RGEM may be a nose too slow at 04z over PA progressing the cold air E but its not a huge amount. I still think the faster progression of colder air will verify...there could be a period of PLSN or RAPL perhaps near the city and the HRRR does show that
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It was a very east based -NAO if I remember right, the block was by Iceland
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That was a coastal low with a closed low at 500...that is the only way you can ever see backend snows here with a coastal low, otherwise the system exits too fast and or the cold air does not come in fast enough
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This event is somewhat similar to 12-11-93 but the main difference which will prevent the bigger snows from being near the coast is that you had a more notable neutral to negative tilt to that system. As a result you had a good 6-9 hour period of snows and your flow both at the surface and aloft was more NNE vs NW so there was no notable downslope impact.
