SnowGoose69

Not sure what the staying power of this Nina is though with the funky angular momentum values recently and the waffling SOI the last few months....its possible the atmospheric coupling is not going to be there as we have seen recently in both ENSO phases at times.

Ensembles the last 2 runs were not as robust with the warump in between, that may depend on how the MJO progresses, if its towards 7 fast enough then maybe the relaxation is muted, if its still in 6 when the EPO weakens we may see a 7-10 day period that is fairly mild. I believe phase 7 MJO is also not exceptionally good in La Nina in late Nov/Dec but its better than 3-4-5-6

That pattern sure does look a bit like Dec 2010. I saw some throw that one around as an analog in recent days...at least that first 10-15 days of that month had the vortex look over the ERN GOA but the -NAO as well

The GFS Op the last few days has been insanely different Days 4-10 than the GEFS...the Op Euro and Canadian have mostly resembled their ensembles, but the GFS has not and has been very ridgy in the East...I wonder if its a product of the MJO phase interfering in the Op runs but the ensembles being able to see the -EPO more

Obviously something is off with the NAMER projections...the ridge from the W Coast to the Bering is probably too far east...reality is it probably would be more troughy over the W Coast because if the ridge truly was that broad no way would the ensuing trof be as narrow as shown..you'd probably have a trof all the way to the E Coast with the SER being pushed offshore

Is the NWS now deploying 40,000ft ceilometers randomly? I noticed 3 very fully automated stations the past week reporting decks 250-400...DNN in GA UTA in MS and RPH in TX... KDNN 230035Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW200 SCT230 14/09 A3014 RMK AO2 T01380092KDNN 230015Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN220 BKN250 15/09 A3014 RMK AO2 T01460088KDNN 222355Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW240 SCT260 15/09 A3013 RMK AO2 T01500085

Ideally you want a high to come down over eastern Ontario over Georgian Bay or Michigan with a low pressure area in the W ATL...this gives you a N flow...we have had these setups many times the last 50-60 years but too often the air mass or 850s are too warm....you look at the 1942 below 0 setup as one example and the setup is one we saw a few times last winter but 850s were -23C vs -15C and snow was on the ground. The high straight down the Hudson is tricky because often in that case you do not have enough wind for urban areas to go below 0...this was a good example...4-5 inches of snow fell but the lack of wind lows were only 3-7 in the metro and as you see 850s just were not that cold...similar setups to that say pre 1960 you likely had colder mid levels. NARR MAP SEQUENCE FOR 02/07/1993/ (psu.edu)

10-11 much like 93-94 and 95-96 may have been a lag impact from a strong and triple/borderline quadruple dip Nino respectively in that those seasons as far as STJ or storminess acted like Ninos despite being Nina/Neutral/Nina

PGD ASOS 104mph

I expect the St Pete area to have issues with winds more so than Tampa too due to the NE flow over the bay and subsequently less frictional impact. I’ve noticed before PIE SPG airports can gust 10-20kts higher in NE flow with TSs making landfall to their south. Wouldn’t be shocked with the NW eyewall if there are still gusts to 80-90mph there

Land induced ERCs on average last for a shorter time I believe than naturally occurring ERCs in a cyclone that has not had land interaction. The cycle of life where Ian had this ERC was a tad earlier than normal as it really only took off in intensity 24 hours ago so it was probably caused by the Cuba landfall

79mph gust now in EYW...the HRRR did a fairly good job as far as 8 hours out showing the 02-04Z window on the SE side of the storm being where they might see 80mph gusts

EYW may have lost power the observations did not come in at top of hour for there or the air force base nearby

The southernmost point camera from Key West people are still standing there as huge waves are coming in

EYW 72mph gust

Key West airport has now gusted to 63mph

Euro basically comes in by Venice...depending how fast it moves eastern portions of metro Tampa might still get into the western eye wall with strong winds

Appears through 24 the GGEM will finally join the party and come further east but remains to be seen

Unless we see a continued SE tick to models today it may be a waiting game til last minute like it was with Ivan where up to 1 hour before we waited to see if it went west of Mobile Bay

Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen

I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004

This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point

Continuing to lose more members showing the Apalachicola landfalls...a couple seem to show the Euro idea of a scare and slide north

This is a case where as a forecaster part of you of wants this to make landfall because otherwise you evacuate a city of millions of people and then they just criticize your "bad" forecast

Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area? That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so