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calculus1

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    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

     

    Hmm...

    That map paints Hickory in a better spot than Asheville...

    Making my decision tougher...  :D

     

    But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet).  So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too.

    • Like 1

    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:


    What’s the timeline, when does a decision have to be finalized? If you have time follow the model trends. Depends on what part of Hickory & what part of Black Mountain. I’d wait as long as possible to gather the most info then make the call. The great thing is either way will be a win!


    .

    My wife wants to let her mother know as soon as possible.  Probably by tomorrow afternoon we should have it finalized.

    • NW Hickory, approximately one mile from Alexander County line.
    • Between Black Mountain and Swannanoa, near Owen HS.

    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I would love your guys' perspective on this.  Here's my dilemma:

    • There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped.
    • My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain).

    I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast).  However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas.  Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer?

    1. Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR
    2. Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains.

    As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there".  But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard.  And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line.  :D

    What are your thoughts?

     

    • Like 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:


    TBH those ensemble graphics are manna from forecasting gods at this range. There’s a shape, you get to communicate a pseudo-snowmap well before it’s responsible to put together an actual map but you also get to absolve blame to the model in case things go wrong. I can blame them. I interned there back in the day and one of my good met friends (no comment on who) is on the team; they’re smart cookies and I generally think they thread the needle pretty well of tipping their hand while also being responsible with what they put out.

     

    46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

    They heavily use ensembles, which have been been trending from flatter and weaker to stronger and more wintry as the Ops have trended from adequately strong and favorable to more amped warmer aloft.  If the Ops continue to trend in that direction, you can expect the ensembles to follow and WRAL to follow that.

    If you guys think I am arguing against using ensembles in forecasting, I am not.  I am arguing against displaying a map that gives precision probabilities.  If WRAL derives their “probabilities” from ensembles, I still disagree with their language.  If they said “14 out of 50 ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton” or even “28% of ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton”, I would have no issue with those statements.  Those are indisputable facts based off model output.  But equating such fractions of ensemble members to probabilities is a misuse of statistics, in my opinion.

    The probability of a success (getting three inches of snow or more, in this case) is equal to the number of successes divided by the number of possible outcomes (failures + successes).  The ensemble members do not represent all the possible outcomes; they only represent approximately 50 of the infinite number of possible outcomes.  Thus, we can’t really say there is a 28% probability of something happening based off ensemble members.  In fact, I would argue there’s really no way to calculate such a probability, because it’s impossible to account for all the possible outcomes that arise from tweaking just one minuscule atmospheric condition somewhere over the entire globe.

    It’s the language that I take issue with, not the use of ensembles.  If they were to change their title to “Percent of Ensemble Members that Predict 3 Inches of Snow”, I would see that as much more transparent.  As it is, I think it’s a misleading graphic.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

    Here are the chances for 3'' of snow from WRAL.

     

    There's a 32% chance that Raleigh could see three inches of snow!

    This is such a crazy graphic.  I understand perhaps giving general ranges of 10, 20, 30, etc. percent chances of snowfall of X amount (and even those are questionable).  But, how could anyone offer that degree of precision even 12 hours out, much less 4-5 days?  For instance, Clinton has a 21% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow?  Not 20% and definitely not 22%, but exactly 21%?  So, if the atmospheric conditions were exactly the same as they are right now, and we play them out 100 times, then exactly 21 of those times Clinton would receive 3 inches of snow?  No way could we possibly know that or perform that experiment.  And there’s definitely not empirical evidence that we can fall back on to know this probability to this degree of precision.  This is such a horrible use of statistics and probability…

    • Like 3

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

    HKY

    Thanks for posting these meteograms, Buckeye.  I just can't fathom all the pretty colors on these charts for Hickory -- there are so many pinks and purples, on both the ECMWF and the GFS ensembles.  We aren't supposed to get nice things.  I love the bonus bump in snow on the GFS too.  As if 12 inches with the first one isn't enough, let's tack on an additional 8 inches a week later.  Yessir!

     

    13 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

    GSP  :lol: 

    The track of the low will determine how strong
of a warm nose might develop from the south, which would greatly
affect the precip-type distribution. The QPF blend right now is
especially modest, and the conservative approach is preferable
for a system that is still out on Day 4/5. In spite of the trend,
readers are cautioned to manage their expectations...at least for
the time being. Stay tuned.

    My favorite part of the GSP AFD is the bolded here.  We are cautioned to manage our expectations.  Yeah, we're not too good at doing that on weather boards.  :D

    • Like 3
    • Haha 3

    Southern Sanitarium

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

    I was just about to say. I’d kill for a legit Miller A right about now. Pain is seeing snow the west and east but nothing here. The Dec 2018 and Feb 2014 storm truly were magical for the foothills. I’m not close to being ready to throw in the towel yet. Climo will eventually be in our favor - the quick hitters are rarely our storms but that’s ok. 

    Yep, that's the tough part.  It's amazing how much they got in the W-S area this morning.  The lee of the Apps is a tough place to live if you like snow.  Really need those classic Miller A storms, but those are few and far between now, it seems.

    • Like 1

    Southern Sanitarium

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I went to the Panthers game in shorts and a t-shirt yesterday.  :facepalm:
    I took my boys to two games this year. We managed to find a way to lose both. Eagles and Falcons. It was a lot of fun, but we sure would like to see some wins. Maybe next year...

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 1

    November 2021 Obs.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Event is overachieving here somewhat. Sitting near a half an inch now. Good soaking aerial rain. We need this once a week to make a dent in the dry conditions this month 
    Finished with 0.46” and our MTD now stands at 0.61” 
    What other type of rain is there besides aerial? Ground rain?

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    2021 Spring/ Summer Mountains thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    These reports out of SW NC are just insane. We've had off and on rain all day, and the heavy line just went through, but these totals and pictures are epic. So much loss of property but hopefully not lives. Thanks for all the updates and documentation of the event, mountain folk.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 2

    Southern Sanitarium

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    It's amazing the variety of responses to these vaccines. Pretty unpredictable. I had double Pfizer a while ago, and no symptoms with either. My arm has been sorer with the flu vaccine. My wife got J&J, and no side effects either. My good friend got J&J same day as my wife and developed Guillain-Barre. Three months in and still not back to work for him. It's a struggle to walk and grasp anything, with constant pain in his extremities. I hate it for him and his family. Despite his difficulties, he is still very much pro-vaccine and encourages others to not use him as an excuse to avoid it.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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