calculus1

I measured a big fat goose egg in Hickory, NC.  Not even a skiff of snow on the roof.  I do have a lot of frozen rainwater on my freshly stained (oil-based) deck, though.  So, there's that.

It is fun to see all the SC places getting snow that so rarely get to experience it.  I'm happy for them, most especially.

Thanks for all the posted tweets, @WinstonSalemArlington.

Decent radar returns overhead in Hickory right now, but nothing surviving to the ground.  I thought we would be saturated by now…

6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

That’s what my mulch looks like, but it’s not really precipitating at all right now.  Hope there is more to come.

Went out to eat with the family here in Hickory.  Just got back home.  Was surprised to find a dusting on the mulch.  Seemed to be all rain in the headlights on the way home.  Temperature is 34.5 right now.

Just drizzle right now.  Probably need heavier returns to get back to snow.

The lack of robust discussion in this thread is telling…

I think they are accounting for the lee-side minimum in these WWAs.  The centers of Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, etc. appear to have the least likely chances to meet WWA criteria, so they decided not to issue them.  I would feel better about my own chances if I were on the eastern side of Catawba County.  I think the NW corner, where I am, has the least likely chance of getting accumulating snowfall in this setup.

Waking up to Winter Weather Advisories across the NC piedmont.  Generally 1-2 inches.  Modeled snowfall output has grown rather anemic, though, overall.  I would love to get a whole inch of snow tonight.  Anything greater than that would seem a nice bonus at this point.

33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

That 2009 storm was absolute torture for those of us living in Caldwell County.  That lee side minimum was horrific.

3 hours ago, Hvward said:

Here is my projected accumulation map.


.

I hate your map, Hunter.  That is all.  Catawba County is hung out to dry…. 

To be clear, I have no issue with its likely veracity.  I just don’t like what it portends for Hickory.

Ugh.  Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee.  12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills.  ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there.  So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches.  Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

21 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Great article about how ensembles work if anyone is interested.   https://www.wral.com/how-wral-meteorologists-use-ensemble-forecasting-to-determine-the-chance-of-1-or-3-snow-in-your-town/20099023/

I hate these charts even more after reading this article.

This article does not explain how ensembles work.  It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard.  That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow.  It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome.  Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes.  It’s not a probability.

If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up.

Rant over.  I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here.

Finished with 0.2 here in NW Hickory.  Solid dusting.  Enjoy it down east.  

Went bowling with the family tonight.  Came out to snow falling.  Was quite surprised at how much was on the road.  Road is completely covered in my neighborhood, with about 1/4 inch of dry snow.  Seems we’re at the back edge of the precipitation shield now.  Should be ending soon, I guess.

Still nada in Hickory, despite radar showing otherwise.

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Radar really lighting up in the foothills. 

Yeah, but nothing reaching the ground.  Yet.

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Anyone have any ground truth to the band west of Winston salem?

Nothing in NW Hickory, even though radar is lit up overhead.  Dry air…

The Canadian is glorious too.  A snowstorm for most of the Carolinas.

Down to 36.7/35 IMBY.  Loving the GFS trends.  Hope they are reflected elsewhere.

Here is the 18Z RGEM:

Surface temperature is falling slowly IMBY.  Down to 38.7/37...

850s continuing to move south and east...

Current 850mb temperatures:

https://twitter.com/SethMonteith150/status/1483902598734397442?s=20

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1483813679661563907?s=20