calculus1

9 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Some of you are going to like the 0Z RGEM.

It just totally redevelops the precipitation on Saturday for round 2 of snowfall.  Wowza!

Not sure what this Ferrier correction is, but this seems about right for the final call from the 00Z 12K NAM:

8 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Sref plumes are out. Triad locations took a big jump and almost doubled from the two inch range previously to the four inch range now. 

Same for Hickory:

1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said:

Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like!

Look for yourself right here:  Just zoom in to your location on the map below:  (I feel like I've already said this once today...)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Here's the latest forecast update too.  My favorite part is the bolded...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to
trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet
outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to
a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle
between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with
the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the
prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather
Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the
GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we
have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford
Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be
hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time
(uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that
may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area
of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting
close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the
evening and especially with the overnight forecast.

Otherwise, guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the
precip potential for tonight and Friday. Deep moisture moves in this
evening with decent upper divergence from the right entrance region
of the upper jet. Short waves move over as the upper trough deepens
to the west. Low level isentropic lift develops as well, but remains
relatively weak with abundant moisture. Despite an overall cooling
trend in forecast temps and surface wet bulb values, they remain
above freezing through the night outside of the mountains, but do
fall below freezing across the mountains. Of course, precip chances
are lower where temps are colder since those locations are farther
away from the better forcing. Therefore, have snow developing in the
colder locations with mainly rain elsewhere. Forecast soundings show
the freezing level dropping low enough for snow to mix in north of I-
85 with a change over possible across the Northern Foothills. QPF is
light but could be enough for around half an inch of snow along and
near the NC/GA to NC/SC border mountain locations. Snow would be
less across the rest of the mountains.

Categorical precip chances continue generally along and south of I-
85 Friday with likely chances north of there across the foothills to
along the Blue Ridge. Good chance PoP west of there. Temps and
surface wet bulbs remain cold enough for the precip to fall as snow
across the mountains with a transition zone across the NC Foothills.
Outside of these areas, freezing levels may fall low enough for snow
to mix or possibly even briefly change over early in the morning
mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor. QPF has increased on
some of the guidance runs which increases the potential for advisory
level snow across the NE GA and Upstate mountains, along with the
Southern Mountains and possibly portions of the NC foothills. After
final national guidance is in, we may need to update to post an
advisory for those locations. While these accums would develop in
grassy and elevated areas, it is still questionable how much
accumulates on roads given the recent warmth and sunshine. Locations
where the precipitation will be mixed or only a brief change over,
no significant accums are expected with any small amounts limited to
grassy or elevated areas.

Just released advisories for the GSP area:

10 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I think quite a few would be happy if this verified...

I think quite a few will be happy wherever snow happens to fall, and quite a few will be disappointed wherever it doesn't.  It's as simple as that...

1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said:

What about for us?

Explore any site you want by using the interactive map below the plumes:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Time to bring back the WPC probabilities page:

 

 

1 hour ago, jburns said:

I've been quietly sitting here all week deleting posts and waiting for the predicted heavy snow to move NW to its usual location and give me my stationary chase. Well what do you know,  It happened again.:)  I'm guessing I will get 10" which is my benchmark for a good storm. I grew up in NW NJ and went to school in Boone so I haven't adopted the, "if the ground is covered its a major storm" mantra of the non mountain SE.  Doubt I ever will at this point. In any case, except for this once again falling at night making it harder to fully appreciate it should be fun. 

Also, when I post some obs later don't look for words like pounding, hammering, ripping or blasting.  Intermittent, light, medium and heavy is as far as I go. 

Good read all around, burns.  Thanks for sharing.

When I read GSP's AFD for winter storms they are always so giddy like they have never seen snow before. I thought about emailing the east coast headquarters in Maryland about their lack of professionalism. It's like a long children's book.

Whatevs. That was a fantastic read this morning. I appreciate the humanity and personality put into the AFD. You can tell the forecaster actually enjoys her job. In addition, there was nothing "unprofessional" in what she wrote. Her style may not have been your preference (though I can't fathom why you would take issue with someone who apparently shares our entire board's fondness for winter weather), but she broke no unwritten rules. Lighten up, Francis.

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Not sure why we can't discuss why the upcoming pattern doesn't look good in the long range thread? That thread is only reserved for positive talk about winter weather I guess...

Not true. Your solid analysis is quite welcome there, burrel. Others' unfounded prognostications are not.

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So far, only 15% of the board are killsjoys when it comes to freezing rain.  The rest of us at least like a bit of it.  And over 60% of us are okay with the Armageddon scenario of no power for a week.  That's the adventurous spirit I was hoping to find here amongst my SE brethren. 

 

BTW, we need a freezing rain emoticon of some sort.

Wild weather is amazing no matter what type.  My preference for wintry type precipitation events go in this order:

 

snow > graupel > sleet > freezing rain > thunderstorms > rain

Yes, thumbs up to Mr. Bob being green-tagged.  I'm sure you'll do the board proud.

Weenie - This refers to someone prone to wild swings in emotion because of no lack of knowledge when it comes to weather. Weenies also often create totally baseless pseudo scientific reasons to back up their claims about future and present weather events.

I think you meant "...lack of knowledge..."

"No lack of knowledge" would be a double negative implying they do have this weather knowledge you speak of, upon which they base their opinions.