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calculus1

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Posts posted by calculus1

  1. 2f72933c0b68966636ec6209c795be25.jpg
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    Great light show last night from the back deck here in Hickory, NC! Just absolutely amazing! We even saw them dancing overhead at times; that’s what the second shot above was trying to capture. Clouds are a bit persistent tonight, unfortunately.


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  2. Surprisingly, not a drop yesterday. First we bust badly by an incredible over-performance on Saturday, then we bust badly by an incredible under-performance on Sunday. The weatherman’s job is difficult…


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  3. Way over performed on the rainfall today. Forecast was for 0.5-0.75. Already at 2.25 and coming down hard again. Interesting what the overnight will hold. Supposed to be another 0.5-0.75, but I am guessing it will be more. Lots of heavy rain on the doorstep…


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  4. Big bust on the rainfall forecast today. NWS said less than a tenth of an inch today as recent as 8 AM. I have 0.4 inch and counting. That’s 400% more than what was forecast.

    We never seem to bust in that direction with snowfall, unfortunately.


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  5. Look at the IMBY stats in my signature. The last five winters (counting this one) have been miserable in Hickory, NC. The previous six were really good. The two before that were horrible. (I can’t go back further because I didn’t live in the same spot prior to that point.) Seems rather cyclical to me for my admittedly few years worth of data.

    I’m not sure why a five-year period of below normal snowfall means that our local expectations should drastically change. Five years in the span of eons is less than a blip. Thus, I’m not willing to pronounce permanent change based on that minor amount of evidence. This stretch sucks, but I bet we string together another good run of winters in the near future. We might have to wait a couple more years, though. Who knows?

    Maybe we only have to wait another week or so, if the ECMWF is right…

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  6. I hardly ever hear the word verbatim used in normal everyday conversation. But we weather geeks sure do like to throw it around with impunity. :D

    Let me offer a few alternatives for those wanting to change it up from time to time:

    ”If the model output were to come to fruition…”

    ”If the model output were to become reality…”

    ”Taken literally…”

    ”If the model output were to be unembellished…”

    ”If reality were undeviating from the model prediction…”

    Or if you really want to win friends and influence people, you can go with:

    ”Taken punctiliously…”

    Carry on and let it snow.

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  7. 1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

    Yep and it drives me nuts. I can totally understand how those down east or in Ga would want to avoid the heat, but locally, nothing is worse than 7pm+ sunsets with rain 5/7 days per week and needing to keep the sweats and jackets on the closet rack in May. Even worse, that pattern has been almost exclusive to NC, SC and southern VA the past few years.

    I’m on the other end of the spectrum from you, @BooneWX. Give me 50s, 60s, and 70s as long as possible. I don’t want any 80s, 90s, or 100s even if it’s the middle of July. If it takes rain showers to keep the temp down, I’m in.

    Of course, our preferences really have nothing to do with it, though, as they have no bearing on the actual weather…. :D

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  8. So, I was wrong. I assumed the low was around 16 (and I just ballparked it), because that was the temp when I checked close to 8 AM. Based on your comments above, I went back to verify and found the actual low was 11.8 F at 6:44 AM. So, almost single digits, but not quite.

    As far as my distance from Lake Hickory, I am somewhere between 1 and 1.5 miles away, as the crow flies, from the nearest point to me on the southern shore of the lake. I wonder if concrete and asphalt have a greater effect on my temperature than does the lake itself.

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  9. 730 days since an inch or more of snowfall IMBY: 5.5 inches on January 16, 2022.

    I had no idea at that time how long I would have to wait to see any additional significant snowfall IMBY. Still waiting...

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    It's pretty sad when there are virtually no prior winter weather events to speak of for the past several years on the NWS Raleigh Past Events page:

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