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calculus1

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  1. Crazy dynamics with this system. All day snow blowing in Boone. Never any accumulation after sun came up, though, but the mood flakes were fantastic.

    Then, driving back down US 321, even witnessed snow/graupel at Cheek's Crossing outside Lenoir and between Lenoir and Taylorsville on NC 90. The crazy thing about this is that the temperature was at 50! That was a 15 degree difference from Blowing Rock to the bottom of the mountain, and yet the snow still survived the journey to the ground. I'm pretty sure that's the warmest ground temperature I have witnessed snow falling at. Crazy. And pretty cool.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 3
  2. 2 hours ago, WXNewton said:

    Definitely an overachiever here as far as ice goes. GFS did horrible with precip back to the west and the ice. RGEM sniffed it out first and stayed course with it. I've listen to constant scanner chatter from 4:30-9:45 wrecks every few minutes.  https://photos.app.goo.gl/2VhcxMJfgxAZfgxp7

     

    2 hours ago, WXNewton said:

    Few pic from about 30 mins ago.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/hTkJh9pBWuzdRdHf6

     

     

    Wow! That's significantly more icing than we got in NW Hickory.  Newton is further to our SE, but it appears you got the goods, there.  Incredibly long icicles for something that was supposed to be so minor.

    • Like 1
  3. 20 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

    Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback.  Just sayin'.  ;)

    It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations.  And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode.  Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively.  If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches.  Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches.  I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability.  While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule.  Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter.  Anything else is gravy.  :D

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  4. I think they are accounting for the lee-side minimum in these WWAs.  The centers of Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, etc. appear to have the least likely chances to meet WWA criteria, so they decided not to issue them.  I would feel better about my own chances if I were on the eastern side of Catawba County.  I think the NW corner, where I am, has the least likely chance of getting accumulating snowfall in this setup.

    • Like 1
  5. Ugh.  Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee.  12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills.  ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there.  So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches.  Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

    • Like 3
  6. 21 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

    I hate these charts even more after reading this article.

    This article does not explain how ensembles work.  It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard.  That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow.  It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome.  Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes.  It’s not a probability.

    If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up.

    Rant over.  I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here.

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