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calculus1

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    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope all is well and everyone is having fun tracking our first real threat of the early winter season. Does anyone know of a good website to look up past snowfalls for North Carolina? I want to go back through a lot of the past storms we have had, as well as look at past winters to see how things shook out for the Charlotte, NC and surrounding area(s). Thank you in advance for any input/links, etc. 

    Best regards, 

    Jason 

    Here you go:

    https://www.weather.gov/rah/events

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted



    Banana high is a term used when a high (or pair of highs) bends around an area of low pressure and blocks it. It happened with Hurricane Florence and set it on a path to the Carolinas instead of OTS. 
    The GFS has a track record (pun intended) for showing that BS about pile driving into HPs, it isn't going to happen, so the low will track further south as has been shown with both the GEFS (the GFS ensembles) and the EPS (Euro ensembles). That major suppression is why even my area is going to get at least SL/FL (Sleet or Flurries), I hope this helps.


    You are way too overconfident on this. The NWS mets aren't even sure I will see snow in Hickory, NC, and you are guaranteeing sleet and flurries south of Columbia, SC?!?! You are going to be severely disappointed, I do believe.

    Also, how can you say what is and isn't going to happen six days before we get there? The weather is so fickle. We try our best to model it with math, but are so often wrong. Of course the low could barrel into the banana high, because the banana high might not even be there on Friday/Saturday, as is currently modeled. Who knows what will actually transpire between now and then?

    The gist of this is to suggest you avoid speaking in such absolutes. There are much greater forces at work than you and I could possibly understand, and they all affect the sensible weather. While humanity has advanced our understanding, we have light years still to go.

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    • Like 11

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    How does it come up with that in SC? By tropical tidbits SC sees rain the whole time.
    Who knows how all these algorithms actually process the information to produce these "snow" maps? But, IMO, the only part of SC that has any realistic shot at snowfall would be the upstate, like usual. And none of us, NC and VA included, should get too hyped at this point. I love all the trends and the signals, but this is early in the season and still so far out that we can't accurately predict anything with any confidence. Let's keep it all in moderation, guys, and not get too insane with our posts. I so appreciate the sound, reasonable meteorology, but I could do without the crazy, unfounded gut feelings.

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    • Like 3

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Beautiful glaze on trees here in Hickory this morning. Small icicles on the deck. Went below freezing around 10 PM last night. Rose above freezing around 7 AM this morning. A few remnant sleet pellets preserves in the glaze from earlier last night.

    Parents live in Lenoir and also report power out. They haven't traveled anywhere, so I can't report on the road conditions there. Power supposed to be back on around noon today.

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    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Yes, if you're north of the Mason-Dixon!
    Actually it is something to look at. Given that the Canadian cold north of the 1030 is just marginally cold, I would like to see a little stronger high; maybe 1035, 1038, something along those lines, although the location helps as well.
    The biggest problem I see with set up is the low placement, waaay to far north for us. Would need to track along the gulf coast; say NO to JAX. But you don't want the low to crank up much either; brings in too much warm air.
    It's at hour ~5000! A little far out there to be monitoring specific lows, don't you think? (If I somehow missed the dry humor, I apologise.)

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    • Haha 2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

    Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. 

    I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county.  I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY.  Let's do this!

    • Like 2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Hmm...

    One inch of freeing rain in Hickory on November 14? Color me skeptical.

    If, and that's a big if, we were to get a strong enough CAD, I can see perhaps up to a quarter inch of accretion, but freezing rain is a self-limitting process. There's no way we would remain cold enough to allow an inch of ice to accumulate. The ground is still relatively warm too. (Let's not have the soil temperatures argument, please.) Bridges might be a little slick, though.

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    • Like 1

    Hurricane Michael

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BretWheatley said:

    Not sure if this has been posted, but, aerial footage from Mexico Beach, FL a couple of hours ago. Unreal.

    ^That's some serious cat5 wind damage there in Mexico Beach.  Wow!

     

    1 hour ago, QC_Halo said:

    This might belong in banter,,,but talk about whacky...

    ^Yes, I think wacky is the right word for that video.  Crazy.

    Hurricane Michael

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted.  While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level.  I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles.  It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases.  Please be specific, guys.

    • Like 2
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