calculus1

From NWS GSP:

4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

What do the temp profiles look like on the Euro?

Warmer than the NAM.  Hickory would get a pretty cold rain, but very little ice if the Euro is correct.  Just to our west would get lots of ZR though.

6 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

It really ramped up the precip totals for the mountains and foothills. Now showing over one inch totals. 

4 hours ago, CamWX said:

Need advice. Looking to move to NC end of this year. Need to be within a couple hours of RDU (aging parents; need occasional caring for). Work in IT. Love to be in a good winter WX area. Also somewhere with relatively cheap apartment living (not like downtown Raleigh).

I would try somewhere north and/or west of RDU.  Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Burlington, Roxboro, etc.

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Interesting....looking at observations though, all the nws sites and many of the others in the western piedmont/foothills are showing dewpoints of 18 to 22. maybe you are in a wet spot lol 

As for your neck of the woods though, it's more than just about the surface temps/wetbulbs ....the air right off the ground all the way up to 900 or 925mb will be very cold and is every bit as important as the current surface observations. No matter which model you look at, 925mb to 975mb temps will be well down into the 20s over your area.  It's a crucial piece to the puzzle....as you can have subfreezing wetbulbs but if the surface pool isn't deep enough, it doesn't matter and you end up with not much of anything. In this case though  There really shouldn't be any problem getting below freezing up your way.

Ha!  That may be the case.  Who knows?  My wet-bulb is down to 32.8 now, so it is slightly falling.  I checked the recent airport conditions, and they wet-bulb to 31.8 right now.  Anyway, I hope you are right about the last bolded statement in your quote.  Time will tell...

30 minutes ago, Lookout said:

This is true but my main point responding to his premise that the nam was running too cold when in reality the nam's dewpoints are also too high so it's not running warm at all. In fact, wetbulbs are in fact lower than the nam is showing.  For example, spartanburg memorial and hickory  are  37 over 19...nam has it 38  over 27 right now and 38/25 respectfully.   I use the same general rule of thumb for quick calculations but  There a number of wetbulb calculators there like this one. 

http://www.ringbell.co.uk/info/humid.htm

For verification purposes, @Lookout, my Davis Vantage Vue is currently measuring 38.2 over 24 right now IMBY.  (I'm less than five miles away from the Hickory airport.)  Using your linked calculator, with my current atmospheric pressure reading of 1031.2 mb, I get a wet-bulb temperature of 33 degrees.  Unfortunately, that's only good enough for a nice cold rain, despite the Winter Storm Warning hoisted for my county that mentions snow/sleet accumulations up to 2 inches and ice accretion between 0.1 and 0.4 inch.  I'm hoping the CAD will kick in stronger this afternoon and evening to lower my wet-bulb temperature, but right now it's a "No go" for ice.

From NWS GSP:

For NWS GSP's service area:

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...A HEAVY WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A low pressure system moving from the Mississippi River Valley to
the southern Appalachians Saturday night will spread wintry
precipitation across much of western North Carolina Sunday night
into Sunday. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will
develop with the heaviest accumulations of sleet and freezing rain
possibly making conditions treacherous for the latter half of the
weekend.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-501>510-120500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.190112T2300Z-190114T0000Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville,
Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens,
Salisbury, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock,
Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,
Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese,
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
302 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations may range from about an inch in the southern part
  of the Watch area to 2 to 3 inches along the far northern Blue
  Ridge mountains. Ice accumulations could approach one quarter
  inch in many areas.

* WHERE...Western North Carolina mountain locations along and east
  of the central and northern Blue Ridge mountains, the adjacent
  North Carolina foothills, and the northwest piedmont of western
  North Carolina.

* WHEN...Light wintry precipitation may develop on Saturday, but
  with accumulations occurring primarily from Saturday evening
  through Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
  due to the snow, sleet, and ice. Travel could become
  treacherous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

FV3

^^ That's all ice or their snow depth algorithm is all messed up.  Look at the total accumulated snow from either Kuchera or non-Kuchera models for the same time.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

New Euro

Interesting secondary snowfall event on Monday...

Euro was a big step back for us, but as NCSNOW just posted the eps was farther south. As always the case when we're tracking a storm, the 12z runs will be huge. 

Ummm...Who are we kidding? We wait with bated breath for every run, not just the 12Z! We would wait for the 11Z GFS with just as much anticipation if it existed.

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Lawrence is a true freshman, not sophomore. He looked ready for NFL last night. BTW, I'm no Clemson fan, but I do like Dabo. I admire his enthusiasm for the game and his unashamed proclamations of his faith in Christ.

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Looked good for Asheville, Marion, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Winston, and other points north and west.

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06Z GFS keeps all these same cities in the game and expands the impacrs to Greensboro, Burlington, Roxboro, etc. I'm liking our chances...

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0z GFS sucked for winter weather, outside the mountains and Wilkes county! MA forum is probably doing backflips now !

Looked good for Asheville, Marion, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Winston, and other points north and west.

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Nice write-up from NWS GSP.  They acknowledge the potential but remain cautious.

Quote

Cold air in place at precip onset Friday night allows for some
wintry weather potential. Soundings do indicate a warm nose, but
oddly enough for most of our area it looks like even the warm nose
is below freezing (well, for now anyway). Partial thicknesses and
associated nomograms are trending cooler too, which does help
simplify the forecast, but we are still at least 5 days out, so
PLENTY of time for this to get far more complicated. GFS moves the
bulk of the precip through Saturday into Saturday night, but ECMWF
lingers the upper trough a little longer with the attendant moisture
lingering into Sunday night across our area. Have continued
rain/snow wording, not yet introducing any mixed p-types. For now,
although confidence is increasing in a winter weather event,
confidence is quite low on any amounts and most guidance remains on
the lighter side (12z GEFS plumes have decreased with storm total
snow amounts across the mountains vs. the 06z plumes, and generally
below winter storm criteria for most of the area). Plenty of time to
adjust.

 

Calendar year 2018 statistics:

Mean Temp:  59.0

---------------------------------------------------

Max Temp:  96.7 (7/3/18)

Mean Max:  70.8

Days max at 90 or above:  56

Days max at 32 or below:  5

---------------------------------------------------

Min Temp:  5.7 (1/7/18)

Mean Min:  49.4

Days min at 32 or below:  75

---------------------------------------------------

Rainfall:  76.04 inches (highest yearly total IMBY for the 7+ years we have lived here)

Snowfall:  20.0 inches

I don't think adding teams is a viable option. If you think yesterday's games were a farce how about Bama vs #8, Clemson vs  #7.  The other two first week matchups 3 vs 6, and 4 vs 5 might be ok games but everyone knows Bama and Clemson await. And we would still have to go through the two games we went through yesterday before we get to the big one. I'd be careful what I wish for.

Yeah, but if ND gets a shot because they are undefeated, then so should UCF. ND's schedule was not significantly more difficult than was UCF's. Also, Georgia and Ohio State would have been included. Georgia already showed they can hang with Alabama. I think OSU and all Big Ten teams are rather weak, but let em play it out in a tournament rather than having some dudes sitting around a table decide who gets in and who gets out. We would still debate snubs even with eight teams in, but I am less sympathetic to any school's complaints if they didn't finish undefeated.

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Notre Dame was such a farce. Nice work by Clemson. Let's expand this thing to eight teams soon. Give UCF a chance too. I guess we'll see how good they are when they match up against LSU on Tuesday.

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I ended up with 2.46 inches storm total IMBY.

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Must be nice.  So far, this ties the worst winter ever for me.

Since it's difficult to get negative snow totals, I suppose zero inches will always tie for the worst winter.

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I'm sitting at 1.99 inches of rainfall IMBY so far today.  I'm hoping to squeeze out 0.01 inch more before midnight to make it an even two inches.

lol I was talking about central NC for the most part. The western part of the state is typically cold enough for something. Plenty of moisture and living in the western part of NC in winter time is a recipe for a good winter storm. It is central NC and eastern NC that struggles.

Since when is Durham not in central NC? I would never consider that city a part of western NC.

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We finished off with 14 inches of snowfall/sleet IMBY.  There were light snow showers interspersed with drizzle this morning, but nothing that amounted to much.  The temp rose above freezing around 5 PM last evening, and it has yet to fall back below.  It has made light work for the plows, not having to fight the frozen tundra.  The back deck has diminished to 9 inches due to melting and sublimation.  Tonight should be a hard freeze, though.

So, I'm sitting at my table looking out at 14 inches of snowfall, and then I just see this updated WSW for my area:

Quote

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO
MONDAY...

.Cold high pressure along the East Coast is interacting with a
moist low pressure system transitioning to the southeast coast
today. Precipitation rates will steadily diminish from the
southwest today, but with many locations receiving additional
mixed, wintry precipitation. While a brief lull is expected
through late afternoon into the evening hours, precipitation will
break out once again overnight. Additional snow will redevelop
from the northwest, and freezing rain and sleet may mix in once
again into Monday morning. Temperatures will be near or below
freezing in many areas.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-501>506-100000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville,
Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Patterson,
Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge,
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill,
Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
and Glenwood
1113 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Snow and sleet will continue
  through late day. After an early evening lull, snow showers will
  redevelop overnight. Some freezing rain or freezing drizzle,
  could mix in at times. Additional snow and sleet accumulations
  of 3 to 6 inches, and ice accumulations of around one tenth of
  an inch, are expected. Winds may gust to 30 mph at times.

* WHERE...The northern mountains and foothills, and the northwest
  Piedmont of North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy wet snow and gusty winds will result
  in numerous power outages. Travel could be nearly impossible.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on
  Monday.

We're getting more tonight?!  And amounts that would normally be a fantastic storm for this area are just massive icing on the cake!  I'm totally geeking out here.

14 inches now in Hickory! Had to switch to the yardstick! Light snow/sleet mix at the moment.

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