calculus1

The official NHC track for Dorian didn't change too much at the 2:00 PM Advisory:

Much bigger re-curve illustrated on the cone map at the 8/31/19 11:00 AM Advisory.

26 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Rainfall looks manageable on most models runs they have 6-10" maybe 12" along the coast,obviously a trend to a stall over us would be worse,  it would take a Floyd/Bertha track to bring winds inland to really impact the bigger cities inland with anything more than 40-60 mph gust and that's just east of I-95...the OBX are in for a ride regardless unless this thing REALLY goes east......all of this is of course dependent on the strength and organization of the storm....assuming the models are right this will only be a Cat 1-2 moving at a pretty average speed. Irene was bad because it lasted soooooo long we had wind gust 50+ reported at PGV for 16 straight hrs....so even though winds peaked around 70-75 in gust here we had them for hrs and hrs...on the typical weak side to boot. Had Irene been moving even 10 mph it would have been much less of a impact wind and surge wise. 

Its going to be a long long long 5 days if the models dont all jump to a OTS solution by the end of the weekend....and then even as the storm approaches the Carolina's there is always those last second little wobbles and turns that make no sense that models miss...

And, that's apparently what we can't do:  Assume the models are right.  In just a few short days, we've transitioned from...

• A relatively weak storm that would track across Hispaniola, get shredded, and then weakly wobble over southern Florida, to
• A stronger storm that could potentially take the Andrew track across southern Florida and reemerge in the GOM before turning northward, to
• An incredibly strong storm that will track across the northern Bahamas before turning sharply north, scraping along the Florida coastline, and eventually coming ashore in North Carolina.

Who knows where we will actually end up and what the written history of this storm will recount?  Clearly, no one.  Or, no one computer model.

So, no matter how "advanced" or "evolved" we think we might be as humans, we still cannot accurately predict things that will happen a few days out.  This is a reminder that we have far less control over things than we deceive ourselves into thinking we do.

8/31/2019, 8:00 AM Advisory on Dorian:

^Just. Wow.

63.9 over 63. Amazing!

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All the windows open!  Love me some CAD!

Same here in Hickory.  Amazing lightning show all around.  Very vivid CTG lightning strikes between 4:30 - 5:00 PM.

51 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

what's the deal with CLT? UHI?

An endless amount of concrete/asphalt with a dash of jet exhaust will do quite a number on a city's official temperature reporting station.  It's hot on the tarmac!  Who'd have thought that?!

4 hours ago, Tarheel17 said:

I have a trip up to the Vermont mountains next week. GFS is showing a very strong ridge and well above-average highs of 10-20 degrees above normal for this time of year for that area, with a cool down right when I leave.

Honestly it's a cruel joke at this point.

Here's hoping the GFS is wrong, as it often is...

On the other end of the spectrum, I got to visit the Wind River Range in Wyoming the week before last.  The first morning I was there, my Kestrel read 37 F as the low temperature in the morning.  Every other morning was in the low 40s.  It's amazing what elevation and latitude can do when working together.  Loved it!

It would be hard to beat western Wyoming for summer weather.  The high prairie is above 6000 feet everywhere, there are hardly any people around, and the mountains are spectacular.  I got to backpack through several snow fields too.  Christmas in July! 

My apologies calculus!!   I know what you are saying: I think it is because I post so infrequently (a bit over 200 times since 2012) that i can stumble and hedge when trying to describe something that I don't fully comprehend!
In this case I tried to choose my words carefully because I didn't want it to read as though i thought that the forecasts were inadequate!  
I have found a clearer way to describe the phenomenon since the post which is that Barry and this system, to me resemble the monsoon depressions that occurs in some places globally but are not considered to be an Atlantic phenomenon as of yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monsoon_trough#Embedded_depressions

Yes; it is a rather complex troughing situation, for which the discussions and forecasts have become more abstracted!
The presentation overall is quite amazing to see! 

1st day of the month and here we go again with temps.
GSP  0.0
HKY  +0.5
AVL  -1.0
RDU  -1.0
GSO  -0.5
CAE  -0.5
AND
CLT  +2.5
 

Heavy thunderstorms this afternoon here in Hickory.  I picked up 1.98 inches of rainfall in about an hour.  Dime-size hail too.

Latest update on Barry:

Even if we get no more rainfall, June 2019 will prove to be the wettest month on record for my backyard in the eight years that I have lived at this residence.  Additionally, I am on pace for the wettest year ever at this locale.

2 minutes ago, jburns said:

Did it look like the post I just put up in the severe weather thread?

Not quite that intense.  I think that would be hard to beat.  =)

We were up on a hilltop overlooking Kentucky Lake (Paris Landing State Park).  The trees swayed back and forth as if they were fans.  Left, right, swirling.  It was very eerie and surreal.  No rain fell as this was happening.  Then it calmed down briefly before the rain hit us.  Hard.  The gust front, derecho, or whatever we want to call it was one of the most impressive and sustained that I have ever witnessed.

We then left out this morning before the next MCS passed through.  Raced it home all day until it caught up to us at about the NC/TN state line on I-40.  Torrential rainfall on that curvy, walled interstate section is no fun at all.

Looks like the third MCS will hit overnight.

2 minutes ago, jburns said:

IMO yes. It traveled about 1000 miles and had a strong punch.

I was in Paris, TN, northwest of Nashville, when it came through the state park there around 6:30 PM.  Crazy amounts of wind ahead of the rain and small hail.  I was in awe watching the trees sway back and forth with such ferocity.

Observed precipitation values over the past seven days.  Just crazy amounts of rainfall in the Hickory area and just to the NW:

3 hours ago, jburns said:

 That sucks. Sorry to hear it.  I fared better last night. No new water came in.  This is only the second time in my 20 years in this house that any water has entered at all. Last year with Michael and this time.  It seems my worry point is 4 plus inches in three hours or less with no lulls. As soon as the rain lessens a bit it stops. 

Thanks, Burns.  I have most of my (now) cement slab basement dried out, and we didn't lose many possessions.  We are rather fortunate compared to many in this area.

Lots of families displaced due to flooding.  So many roads and bridges closed or impassable in the area.  Catawba County schools are closed tomorrow with many schools harboring standing water.

On 6/8/2019 at 11:15 AM, griteater said:

The trajectory of the training cells here traveling south to north and NNW, and banking up against the Blue Ridge looks rather ominous for heavy rains and localized to regional flash flooding.  Precipitable water / moisture content is high.  Focus of the heavy rain threat looks to extend thru Sunday night.

This is one time when I wish you had been wrong, grit.

Lake Lookout Shoals is seeing historic water levels.  I have a friend who lives on that lake.  Duke Energy called him at 5:30 AM and told him to get to high ground.  They were releasing four gates on the Oxford Dam at 20 feet each.  Just.  Crazy.

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1145 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

NCC003-035-097-101515-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.W.0020.190609T1545Z-190610T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catawba NC-Alexander NC-Iredell NC-
1145 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Catawba County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  South central Alexander County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...
  West central Iredell County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT Monday.

* At 1130 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicates numerous light to moderate
  showers in the vicinity of Lookout Shoals Lake and Lake Hickory,
  but no additional heavy rainfall at this time.  This has allowed
  Lookout Shoals Lake to crest following a widespread 4-8 inch
  rainfall event that began Thursday evening.  Areas of northwest
  Catawba County, eastern Caldwell County, and western Alexander
  County saw 8-12 inches of rainfall.  The heaviest rainfall was
  focused over the watersheds feeding Lake Rhodhiss and Lake Hickory
  and was responsible for levels at Lookout Shoals Lake not seen
  since 1940. This has caused flooding of homes along the lake and
  evacuation orders are in effect.

* The latest lake level data for Lookout Shoals Lake are as follows:

  CURRENT POOL...106.7 feet (Moderate Flooding) and falling steadily.
  FULL POOL...100.0 feet.
  CREST...108.19 feet at 9am on June 9.
  This is the highest level recorded since August 1940,
  when the lake crested at 114.40 feet.  Crests during the 2004 and
  2013 floods were 107.4 and 107.0 feet, respectively.
  MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...105.0 feet.
  IMPACTS...At 105.0 feet, inundation of homes along Longfield Street,
  Overbrook Drive, and the Carpenter`s Cove community is likely or
  ongoing and evacuation orders are in effect.  Power has been turned
  off to affected homes and other structures due to floodwaters.
  Additional homes and streets may be impacted.
  FORECAST: Duke Energy project Lookout Shoals Lake will stay near at
  or above 105 feet into Monday morning.  Additional rainfall may cause
  new rises.

* Evacuations are in effect for several residents along Lookout
  Shoals Lake, including in the Carpenter`s Cove community.
  Residents are urged to heed guidance from local officials and
  Emergency Management on any potential or ongoing impacts to
  property, including evacuation orders.  Drivers are urged to heed
  any barricades and avoid all flooded areas.

* Significant releases are occurring at Oxford Dam above Lookout
  Shoals Lake, causing dangerous high flow conditions and flooding
  along the Catawba River downstream, including areas of Riverbend
  Park and Hafer Rd.  Please avoid the Catawba River, flooded
  roadways, and other low-lying areas during these high flows.

* FORECAST: Additional heavy rainfall is possible in the North
  Carolina Blue Ridge Escarpment, Foothills, and northwest Piedmont
  area above Lookout Shoals Lake Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
  This rainfall would occur on top of saturated soils and may
  exacerbate ongoing high lake levels.  Residents and lake users are
  urged to stay weather aware and be prepared to respond if new
  rises occur.

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Really sorry to hear it Calc.  Hopefully the rain avoids you going forward.  

Storm total rain since Wed AM

Thanks, Grit.

Yeah, I live under that nice little purple shade.  Crazy!

Umm...I'm back in it.  My Vantage Vue reports "Raining Cats and Dogs".

Storm total so far: 13.58 inches

• 4.94 on Fri (6/7)
• 2.50 on Sat (6/8)
• 6.14...and counting... on Sun (6/9)

My basement has a new look.  I didn't really like that carpet anyway.  Cement slab is the way to go.

3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

I could see Friday that Hickory area would likely get the worst of it and unfortunately the models were spot on.

Which watershed runs through your area?

It is painful to see individuals and board members impacted by flooding.

Thanks, highcountry.

The Catawba River Watershed runs through Hickory.  Lake James, Lake Rhodhiss, Lake Hickory, Lake Lookout Shoals, Lake James, Mountain Island Lake, and Lake Wylie are all manmade lakes along its path.

I fought it all night, until I didn't hear my alarm at 3 AM. Was waking up to vacuum where the water was entering. When I woke up again around 5:30, I stepped off the couch into water. I lost the battle.

We've had just shy of 6 inches of rainfall...since midnight. My three day total is somewhere around 13 inches. Too tired to figure precisely.

My house is draining out into the backyard.

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