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calculus1

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Posts posted by calculus1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    Just remember, whoever starts a storm thread for this has to deal with the humiliation until December. 

     

    9 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

    Please dont do this to yourselves.  Have some dignity.  Cold rain is what we shall have, and nothing more.  Our December snow broke the models.  The FV3 hasnt been right since. 

     

    We get it.  You've got the weather all figured out, and we are stupid for even enjoying a chase that might not pan out.

    Come on, man.  It's a weather board.  And, more than that, it's a snow-lovers board.  We are going to talk about what the models show and what might happen, and I won't apologize for that.  If it doesn't snow, life will go on.  If it does snow, I will enjoy it (just like the anticipation), even if it only falls from the sky and never actually accumulates.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

    The 12z ICON has joined the euro on showing a significant elevation (mountains/foothills) winter storm. It also shows your area getting some snow. The 12z FV3 continues to show a wintery mix for areas farther east; and now the 12z GFS is starting to show something.

    Bets still on the euro and now the ICON. Main reason is time of year (climatology). Still very reasonable to get mountain snows; whereas other areas it's very rare.    

    Yeah, look at the classic LP placement on the 12Z ICON:

    c3sCUQ8.png

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

    So says someone who has seen snow this year. Haven’t had any here in eastern NC.

    Oh, come on!  =)

    You know everyone pulls for snow in their own backyards.  It doesn't mean I hate people that live in eastern NC or anything.  If you guys get snow out of this, I will enjoy seeing your pictures, just as I did when the posters from Jacksonville, NC, shared a few weeks back.  I also think it's more likely (see earlier post) that you will see snow out of this than I will.

    Anyway, I pull for snow IMBY every month of the year -- January - December.  Those of you pulling for spring to prevail now that we are in late March don't march to the beat of the same drum as do I.  The advent of spring only means that summer (and the awful heat and humidity) will shortly be here.  Ugh!

    Winter is coming...

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

    Or to make more folks happy, expand the coverage. 

    True.  There is that option.  I don't think either one is likely, though -- westward trend or expansion of coverage.  I think you stand the best chance of getting something in your backyard if you live to the north and east of Raleigh in this setup.  But, who knows?  We'll keep watching...

    March 3, 2019 Severe Threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    12 hours ago, shaggy said:

    This guy basically drove right into the back of the circulation. Later in the video you can see the massive size of this tornado.

    Is the video sped up in the second half?  If not, that guy is flying down those back-country roads.  Driving all over the road too.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

    3 straight runs of the GFS showing something Tuesday night

    And the "jackpot zone" (if you can call 1.5 inches a "jackpot") is in the lee of the Apps in each case.  I think that's good.  Amirite?  Or, should I concede to the conventional wisdom that you never want to be in the "jackpot zone" three or four days out?

    I'm just gonna grasp at any straws thrown my way right now...

    • Like 1

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

    The airport is N of 85! I have only received 1” of sleet! So those numbers are skewed

    If you are south of I-85, then you should expect even less snow than what has been reported at GSP.  So, again, this year isn't too different from normal.  Still disappointing, but not completely aberrant.

    • Thanks 1

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

    Good riddance to this shit box winter.  Tired of seeing the Mid Atlantic weenies cry all winter how bad their winters are. They always get snow its just a matter of time. They keep getting storm after storm now while we fail miserably. Beyond done with it

    You live in NW SC, man.  Here are the annual (and monthly -- October to May) snowfall totals for the past 15 years or so at GSP:

    ZgIlOXo.png

    Your 4.3-inch season total this year is only 0.4 inches less than normal.  It's also more than 16 of the years listed here.  I think it's been a pretty normal year for you as far as totals go.  (I also figure you don't actually live at the airport -- Boiling Springs is more north and east of there -- so your totals will vary a bit, but this is the best I can do.)

    We all want more snow, myself included.  (Spring, stay away!)  I think the extra bitterness and despair right now is due to the big storm that was had in December.  Everyone believed that we were setting up for an epic winter with that early storm.  It just hasn't materialized that way, though.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

    This is why I almost wish we didn't have access to the models this far out...  They always do this.  
    I really surprised WRAL even mentioned the possibility on their forecast last night.  Maze said he only mentioned it because people were seeing snowflakes on their phone app, but he cautioned that models switch around frequently this far out. 

    Wait.  You're in favor of censoring which information the public has access to?  I'm going to file a Freedom of Information Act request to counter your proposal.  =)

    It should be up to the individual to determine what information they want to give credence to and how they want to process it.  I don't need/want someone else filtering my weather map access because they believe I wouldn't be able to handle whatever mood swings they think I might incur.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC. 
    While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name...

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Haha 1
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