calculus1

Yes, FV3 has back to back storms on Jan 28 and then Jan 31. Beautiful!

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

There's a whole lot of whining and complaining in the pattern thread. It would be great if you guys can take it over here to banter rather than cluttering up the actual discussion and weather talk.

This is the perfect place to talk about your winter preferences and hobbies and when you're putting out your preemergent and when you're going fishing and playing golf and whether you like dry and cold weather or warm and wet weather or any other combination and whatever short phrases you want to post as your reaction to a map and whether you identify with Lucy or Charlie Brown...

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That would translate to some chilly surface temps.  I doubt the magnitude of that kind of cold around here.  But still, having an expansive arctic air mass in the vicinity, with a nice snow pack to the north, will definitely widen the window for some wintry weather around these parts.

Thanks for your post.  I didn't read the 850 mb temp portion originally on QC's map, and was like... .  Mind you, it's still crazy cold to have 850s that cold, but still not the same as reading -30 as my surface temp.  

It's a snow/sleet/graupel mix here in Hickory right now!  A pleasant surprise!

Snowing/sleeting in Hickory!

This is robust! Hoping a snow shower or two will break containment and spill over here.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Beautiful pictures, as always, Eyewall.  Thanks for sharing your talents with us.

I was on that tower back during the warmer months of 2018.  I had a beautiful view of the surrounding countryside, but it didn't feature any ice.

Been without power since 7am. Lots of trees and limbs down around us. The train actually hit a tree that had called across the tracks. Just a small tree and no damage to the train (it was going super slow) but they were out clearing the tracks. Duke Power said they don't know when our power will be back on. I would upload pictures but it keeps telling me they are too big? They are just iPhone photos.

My temperature and WB both continue to drop: 31.5 and 30.9, respectively.  Moderate rain with quite a bit of sleet mixing in right now.

On the 18Z run of the FV3, the 540 line is south of VA from hour 174 to the end of the run.  Wow.  Lots of cold, with wintry weather chances to boot!

NWS GSP evening update:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 955 pm EST: The latest LAPS and Obs analyses of surface wet
bulb temperatures show values of 30 to 31 degrees across the vast
majority of the Warning area this evening, lending confidence to the
idea that freezing surface temperatures will persist in these
mountain/foothill/NW piedmont areas and permit significant ice
accumulations as the heavier QPF rates moves through the region
overnight. Farther south into the Advisory area, sfc wet bulbs are
running around 32 degrees, except 33 degrees in the lower piedmont.
The mesoscale models still feature some modest cooler of surface
temps overnight, so will keep the Advisory in place despite any
icing likely being more patchy in nature southeast of the I-85
corridor.

Regional composite radar shows plenty of heavier rates still
upstream of the area as upper-level jet divergence, deeper-layer
DPVA, continued isentropic lift, and steeper mid-level lapse rates
look to cross the region overnight. Established cold air damming
will maintain, or cool, surface temperatures slightly - with the
coldest values likely centered around 09Z before we see any very
slight warming around the edge of the wedge layer through the later
morning hours. The window for accumulating sleet across the northern
Blue Ridge area is dwindling, and icing from freezing rain is
expected to be the major concern overnight. Although forcing will
weaken as the 850 mb flow turns westerly on Sunday, channeled
vorticity will keep some mentionable PoPs going through the day,
with perhaps additional light ice/sleet accumulations possible
across the far northern tier. It`s likely that the
Warnings/Advisories will be able to be cancelled early, at some
point, from south to north on Sunday.

Wow!  The overnight forecast just upped the ante on totals IMBY:

Now below freezing here IMBY:  31.8/30 = 31.1 WB at 1028.5 mb.

17 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

How does one calculate WB, because the way I thought you do it, isn’t aligning with what people are posting.

http://www.ringbell.co.uk/info/humid.htm

NWS GSP Expected Ice Accumulation continues to rise...

Inching ever nearer...

32.2/30 = 31.3 WB

Current 925mb temperatures.  Solidly below freezing in the shadow of the Apps.

Well, that was a quick transition from drizzle to solid sleet.  Deck is now slick with the ice pellets.

Well, so much for the snow. Quick transition over to sleet and freezing rain. Sitting at 24.5 degrees. I'm in trouble.

dew point actually dropped a bit... now 35.3/28 
calc web bulb is 32.69

Precipitation approaching quickly.  36.3/25 = 32.2 WB at 1028.9 mb.

Nice little sleet fest IMBY currently.  37.9/24 = 32.8.

1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It is already wrong .... we have been getting sleet and flurries on and off this morning. Upper levels are colder than what that map is showing. Maybe the model expects major warming before the bulk of the precip moves in.

Yeah, I wasn't looking at panels for this afternoon's novelty flakes and pellets.  I was looking at the panels once the bulk of the precipitation arrives.

1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Looks like a quarter of an inch of ice in our neck of the woods. I am just to your south.

Yes, which I find very interesting.  The relative max with ZR is usually right up against the Blue Ridge, but this forecast is showing our area getting more.  I would have to guess that would be due to a forecast of more sleet falling closer to the Blue Ridge and less here.

4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

How about up this way on temps?

 

This panel shows the furthest reach of the freezing precipitation types of the most recent Euro run: