calculus1

It's snowing awesome right now. Actually sticking now that the temp is below freezing, too. Let's go!

41 minutes ago, kayman said:

This mess is a season of snow season has been insulting and disrespectful 

...

Finally, far too many on this subforum here while always talking about NC weather that is 9 out 10 times that it's the Triangle or Raleigh like Charlotte is irrelevant. IRL Charlotte is a way larger region than the Triangle. I see why so few of us post because this is annoying.

This seems to be an odd thing to complain about. We can't control where the people live that happen to join American Weather and like to post. And, naturally, people like to talk about the weather in their backyards. Apparently, the RDU area has a much greater membership on this site, per capita, than does Charlotte. It is what it is. If you want more talk about Charlotte, you can create the content yourself or convince your neighbors to join and post content. I would encourage both options.

It's started snowing again here, too. It is on COD radar, base reflectivity, tilt 1.

Back edge of the precip appears to be here in Hickory now. Snow is slacking off. What might have been...

Nothing on the ground here yet, but it has been snowing steadily for about a half hour right now. Been beautiful to look at. I didn't expect this consistent snowfall based off radar and model trends.

16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

lol. No sooner did you post this, GSP updated the advisory to extend until noon tomorrow. Coating - an inch possible with the ULL. We’ll see. 

Ha! Shows you what I know and why I am not employed by NWS GSP. I sure do hope they are correct.

Sounds like tomorrow would have been a better day for virtual school rather than today.

I would be surprised if they don't cancel the WWA for Catawba County at the next update. Here's the point-and-click for North Hickory. If I do the math, less than half an inch, times three, can still be zero. That's my official prognostication, unfortunately.

The sun is trying to break through here...

I have a few flakes making the journey down from the heavens, too.

Still only the solitary flake I saw around 8 AM this morning.

Downsloping, FTW!

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Both the 3k and 12k had hardly any snow in the foothills.

And, they have been spot on, unless you are closer to the Blue Ridge. Only McDowell and Caldwell counties reporting any snowfall that I have seen.

1 minute ago, avianman said:

It's right over us on radar and not one flake.

Yep! No dice.

7 minutes ago, avianman said:

I'm at Riverbend Park now and haven't seen any flakes yet.

COD Radar shows a heavy slug of moisture on our doorstep moving SW to NE. Maybe this will finally break through.

I am in the camp of having seen less than five flakes so far. =)

6 minutes ago, avianman said:

I am under that right now and I have yet to see the first flake.

Me too. Not a single flake so far.

Nothing here yet. Though radar seems to depict a heavier blob on my doorstep. This is sad.

It’s going to be an amazing virtual school day at home with nothing falling from the sky. Just. Wow. At the recent NAM.

I've never been so excited about the 15Z SREF...

It's rolling!

36 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I think the big thing tomorrow is that some stretch of western NC is likely to get completely blanked. It’s the nature of these systems moving west to east. The big question is where. 

Yeah, that's my fear, at this point, too. Catawba County Schools are going remote learning tomorrow. It will be so sad if students just have to stare at brown earth all day.

Here's the image from the 09Z SREF for KHKY. Two inches of snow would feel like a really big win at this point.

27 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Why the discrepancy in the two image outputs above?

One is the SREF mean, while another is a single member that someone plucked out.

There will be clear skies overhead of Wolf Laurel and somehow @Buckethead will still snow. I am so jealous. What a fantastic location you have! Snow capital of the SE.

25 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

About 51 when I was out there with 40 mph gusts. Felt a lot colder than the actual temp. We had a weird isolated shower hours after the main line and we were well on our way to warmth but that set midday heating way back locally. 

Yeah, we had that same secondary downpour around noon. Wasn’t expecting that one at all, after the main line went through around 7 AM.

52 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’d be curious to hear the chatter in the room when making this because not a single ounce of guidance supports this west of 77.

I think we have to be careful about saying “Not a single ounce of guidance supports this”. Our NWS GSP Mets are pretty good at their jobs, and they have them for a reason. Just because we don’t see the guidance that supports such a map, doesn’t mean that they don’t see things differently. Granted, this map will continue to be updated, and it could go down or up in the days to come.

25 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I think the track is pretty baked in at this point imo. We need to root for earlier phasing or just an undermodeled precip shield.

I tend to agree with you here, and this is what I think the NWS GSP mets may be betting on (for some reason). They must feel the chances for a phase or a more extensive precip shield are higher than what we see from direct model output.

Call me crazy, but I’m still not that worried about the leeside minimum that was just depicted on the ECMWF. I think the climatology of a system taking this track will lead to the system filling in the precipitation to the NW up against the Apps. Of course, I’m not a trained met, so my thoughts are solely based on inference from previous iterations of similar storms, and I could be really wrong by not understanding all the interactions of the atmospheric conditions.