calculus1

Rain/Snow mix here now.

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39/33 here in NE Hickory. Nothing making it to the ground yet. Check that. Very light drizzle.

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Just out from NWS GSP:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM: Overall, forecast looks on track, and only minor
changes were made, and no changes to the snow and ice accums
attm. The latest radar mosaic shows a nice band of high reflectivity
extending from the Atlanta area to Charlotte. Precip is actually
intense enough to dynamically cool and bring snow and sleet to
the surface across Atlanta to Habersham County. mPING reports
also showing some snow mixing in with rain across the Upstate. I
am a little concerned that we could see a little more snow than
expected along and north of I-85 across GA and the Upstate. But
even if it accumulates, it would start to taper off around midnight
or shortly thereafter. So from an impact standpoint, not expecting
to need to expand the Winter Storm Warning or Advisory areas. But
will continue to monitor trends and do another update before end
of the evening shift.

48.7/22 right now after a low of 24. Temps are just soaring up there right now. Does not bode well for tonight.

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9 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

If we can avoid the Warm Nose this could happen for Hickory west. We shall see so glad to be moving to Buffalo later this Month for a new Job will be beat winter down here lol. 

Wow!  That will be a big change, in so many ways:  Valdese, NC, to Buffalo, NY.

9 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Edit: And even worse for some areas. No way changes this big don't have an impact. Same story aloft much warmer.

Wow!  14 degrees warmer in Hickory?  Ese es mucho no bueno.

This has been the coldest winter in a long time (it seems), and yet nothing much to show for it in the winter precipitation area.

3 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

Yeah I love it up there. Going in the snow was on my bucket list for a long time. Felt like being on another planet. We were the only people who made it more than a hundred yards yesterday, probably due to the winds through Massie. My buddy and I legit had to grab each other to stay upright on multiple occasions and he kept me from falling off a rock at one point. Made it to Rhododendron Gap before turning around. The constant guessing game of "is this snow 4" or 3ft deep" was hard on the knees, though.

Here's a couple more photos.
 

Absolutely gorgeous photos, @Tyler Penland.  I love the pony pic in the snow, as well as the one you posted yesterday.  Thanks for sharing.

The 12Z GFSV16 just has wintry event after wintry event trekking through WNC through the end of its run.  Wowza!

Hickory is stuck at 33 for the duration of the event, though.  That would limit accumulations here.  To the north and west, they would do much better.

I think we've got something here for Saturday night into Sunday on the 12Z NAM...

Very, very nice pics too, @Met1985.  Interesting to see the pictures while the clouds are still very low, in contrast to @snowbird1230's photos with the clear blue sky.  Each set is beautiful in its own right.

@snowbird1230, do you actually live right off the Skyway?  How do you get access to the road?  I assumed it would be closed under these conditions.  Your pictures are amazing, though, and I am thankful you do have access to show us these beautiful shots.  Thanks so much!

Interesting from NWS GSP:

Quote

As of 920 PM Monday: The upper low embedded within East Coast trough
is centered over the Tidewater region to our NE. Since sunset, have
seen an expansion of light radar returns at elevations apparently
below the Blue Ridge Escarpment; this appears to be due to a
mountain wave, but per nighttime microphysics satellite product and
IR cloud top temps, the lower clouds NW of the Escarpment are likely
dropping some flurries or light snow within the radar-shadowed
areas. The setup looks to have been captured well by the NAMNest,
so it was blended into the overnight fcst to expand the light snow
and/or flurry mention southeast into the Piedmont. With the upper
low in place, can`t absolutely rule out flurries anywhere in the
CWA, but have kept the mention where the low-level moisture is
better. On that note, continued drying/downsloping should diminish
the Piedmont activity in the early morning.

The NW flow snow will become more of a pure upslope event following
the loss of the dynamic lift Tuesday morning. Orographic lift across
the TN border and Smokies still looks to produce over a foot of
snow by the end of the period Tue evening. Most of the higher
amounts associated with this event will be above ~3500-4000`,
where thermal profiles are favorable for snow with heavy snowfall
rates. See no reason to make significant change to existing snow
amounts; do not yet have enough obs/measurements to improve on
what we`ve got. Did rerun accums with latest PoPs, which made
minor changes (new WSW out soon). The snow will diminish a bit
more quickly in the afternoon/evening as drier air filters in. The
Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect for elevations below
3500`, but those in populated areas along the TN border and down
the valley away from the TN border, snow amounts lessen by a lot
in these areas compared to the higher peaks. Expect a general 1-3"
in these locations, while areas under the warning will exceed 4+".

Nothing coming down in NW Catawba here in Hickory, despite the radar returns indicating otherwise. The direction of this flow is different than normal, though, which may explain the returns that are breaking containment. It's almost due north, just a few degrees west of that.

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I seriously think this thread should be renamed the Jan 30-31 event. Outside of our VA posters, most people saw more wintry precipitation yesterday than they did today.

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From NWS GSP:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1045 PM EST: Guidance still on track for a sfc low now
over the mid-MS Valley to pass by as a Miller B-type low pressure
system tonight and to our east Sunday. Forcing and deep moisture
ramp up quickly near midnight with precip spreading across the
area before daybreak. Forecast soundings and partial thickness
values still suggest a typical, messy Miller B p-type forecast
for this system. Temps aloft wet bulb down below freezing before
a warm nose kicks in and strengthens late tonight into Sunday. An
in situ wedge should form as precip falls, bringing temps down to
near or below freezing across the Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Wx Advisory area. In light of the earlier WAA-driven precip band
that traversed the area, which threw temp/dewpoint trends a little
out of whack wrt the forecast, revised those trends overnight per
recent meso model output. The most remarkable overall change is
generally warmer temps and dewpoints roughly along and just north
of I-85, which had the effect of minimizing wintry precip in that
area. QPF trended down slightly as well. That said, a pocket of
cooler air possibly associated with the wedge has settled in over
the mountains; meso models that have picked up on that still show
some warming/moistening with onset of precip in the next 2-3 hrs.

Since it is an in situ wedge, the cold temps will not be locked in
and will warm around the edges through the morning with all areas
above freezing by afternoon. Precip still expected to start as snow
and sleet in the colder air then slowly change to freezing rain and
rain as the warm nose strengthens and cold pool erodes. No changes
warranted to the existing headlines; could possibly have dropped
part of the Advisory for lower accums due to the warmer temps,
but some isolated issues may result from the light amounts during
the transition period overnight.

Precip should become all rain by early afternoon. Sunday`s highs
will show a typical Cold Air Damming pattern with 30s to low
40s common outside of the mountains and along the Blue Ridge
escarpment. Highs will rise to the lower 50s going westward to
the lower valleys near the TN border.

21 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Temp steady at 33, the dusting from earlier is gone. Looking like 33 and rain overnight. Weather apps have done a great job nailing the temps here. NWS forecasts aren’t looking good for NW Piedmont.

32.0/31 here now.  It's iffy.

850s and 925s are still below freezing above me, but I'm not sure how long that will last.

Of course, the SPC pages are not matching with the really low temps that some of our mountain folk are currently reporting either.

I'm stuck at 32.7/32.  That's not gonna cut it for freezing rain.  Of course, snow or sleet could still fall before the upper levels completely roast, but we will see...

Ended up with a dusting. Beautiful to watch fall, but it didn't amount to too much.

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Dusting here in Hickory (Caldwell County side), nothing on the roads. Looks like we are on the very tail end too. Might be all the wrote in regards to snow on this one.

We've already got a cartopper here!

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Light snow in Hickory. 38.7/26 right now.

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RDPS/RGEM also bringing back frozen precipitation into the foothills and western piedmont of North Carolina on Monday.  Interesting...

NWS GSP current probabilistic forecasts: