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calculus1

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  1. NWS GSP Winter Storm Watch:

    Quote

    Winter Storm Watch

    
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
    257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021
    
    ...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
    NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
    
    .A strong storm system will push into the Appalachians Saturday
    night into Sunday. This combined with cold temperatures will
    bring the possibility of a wintry mix of accumulating snow,
    sleet, and freezing rain to western North Carolina.
    
    NCZ033-035-036-049-050-053-056-064-065-501>510-300400-
    /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0003.210131T0300Z-210131T1800Z/
    Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-
    Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
    Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
    Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
    Eastern Polk-
    Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
    Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
    Statesville, Mooresville, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville,
    Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory,
    Newton, St. Stephens, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
    Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
    Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls,
    Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford,
    Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
    Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
    Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
    257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021
    
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
    SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
    
    * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
      accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around
      one tenth of an inch possible.
    
    * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the
      northern mountains, Blue Ridge, foothills and northwest
      Piedmont.
    
    * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.
    
    * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
    
    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Windy conditions will be possible across
      the higher elevations of the Tennessee border counties Sunday
      morning.

     

    • Like 1
  2. 26 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

    So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing.  Interesting.  And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind.  I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.

    They referenced Davie in their discussion:

    Quote
    
    The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with
    this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold
    and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong
    warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and
    isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and
    forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type
    system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative
    cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to
    freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in.
    Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge
    where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it
    looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the
    counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40
    corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet
    mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these
    areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect
    lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and
    NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an
    Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain
    how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It
    is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out
    a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation
    would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of
    course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change
    the expected p-types and associated amounts.

     

  3. 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state.  It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something.  Either way, impressive!

    You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above.

  4. Went hiking up to Rich Mountain Fire Tower yesterday on AT outside Hot Springs in Madison County. Snow on ground in spots from about 3200 feet and up. At top (3600 ft), up to four inches of snow still on the ground on the north slope of the mountain. The trail was actually quite icy at the summit.

    The views from the fire tower were amazing yesterday. No wind, clear blue sky, 360-degree views, snow visible on all the higher peaks in every direction. I love winter hiking.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 5
  5. Nice to see multiple threats show up on the 12Z GFSv16 today.  Hours 138, 198, and 324 all show potential for snowfall in the SE.  Different types of systems in each case, and still way out in the future, but they demonstrate what is possible when we have an active storm track and some blocking.  I am excited about the possibilities...

    • Like 4
  6. NWS GSP having fun this afternoon... :lol:

    Quote
    
    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
    As of 1246 PM EST Monday...Sometimes in this business, you have
    to know when to throw in the towel when the atmosphere refuses
    to cooperate with the forecast. This is one of those times when
    a mid-course correction is required. Will dramatically increase
    precip probs into the likely range for the afternoon and into the
    early evening based on observations and radar trends upstream
    as this system is making a mockery of the previous forecast
    guidance. Fortunately, we are talking about a high probability of
    low precip amounts, because temps across the higher terrain should
    allow the precip to fall as light snow in many places. For the
    moment, it appears that temps and low QPF will keep the potential
    for snow accumulation below the threshold at which we would consider
    a Winter Wx Advisory, so none will be issued...yet...altho we
    continue to monitor. Temps will also not make it as warm as
    expected now that light precip either reaching the ground or
    evaporating aloft covers the fcst area. Have cut a category off
    the high temp. We will address the problems again in two hours.

     

    • Like 1
    • Haha 6
  7. Also, no 3-inch totals in Lenoir. I have family that lives there, and I visited Saturday morning. Most of the snow was already gone by then, if not in shade. Maybe they had an inch, at best, prior to melting commencing. I would question anyone's measurement ability if they think they got 3 inches of snow in Lenoir, except perhaps on top of Hibriten Mt (the mountain with the lit star at Christmas).

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

  8. I would also contend that no one in Hickory had an inch of snow. Two dustings (one at dawn and one at 4 PM) might add up to 0.5 inch, though. Baker's Mt in Catawba County did have between 1-2 inches, but not Hickory. Their elevation sure helped, I suppose.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

  9. I now have nothing falling from the sky, but I managed to get a re-coating of the ground before it all stopped.  I'm not sure to what two coatings add, but I'm going to call it a grand total of 0.5 inch for this storm (which I now assume has ended IMBY). That's a rather disappointing result when the winter storm warning was for 2-4 inches, and all I managed were two separate dustings, one at 7:00 AM and another at 4:30 PM.  On the bright side, I did get to see it snow almost all day long, at varying degrees of intensity, but none greater than the 3:30 - 4:15 PM window.

    • Like 1
  10. Yeah, it's been rippin' the proverbial fatties for about a half hour now. Easily re-coated all the grassy surfaces. If it would do this for a few hours, we might actually get to 2-4 inches, but I fear there's not too much time left here in Hickory. Earlier today has been steady light snow. This is finally moderate to heavy. It's been nice to see it all day, despite the lack of significant accumulation to this point.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 2
  11. Just light snow, off and on, here in NE Hickory. The ULL is going to have to produce some serious rates this afternoon for anything to accumulate. Temperatures at ground level are not conducive to accumulation otherwise.

    I thought@griteater was being a bit pessimistic in his final forecast, but he may prove to be too optimistic for all locations outside the mountains.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 2
  12. Just spitting snow here in NE Hickory. The heavier returns are just to my west. However, the motion of the precipitation seems to be shifting more SW to NE. Hopefully, I will get into more solid rates soon.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 1
  13. WSW wording.  Everything but the kitchen sink possible.  :D

    Quote
    
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
    233 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021
    
    ...WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
    CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
    
    .A storm system moving from the Deep South through the coastal
    plain of Georgia and South Carolina will spread precipitation into
    western North Carolina from late Thursday evening through Friday
    morning before tapering off Friday afternoon. Sufficient cold air
    will be in place such that mostly snow is expected across the
    mountains, with the exception of the lower valleys of southwest
    North Carolina. While precipitation is expected to initially fall
    as rain across the foothills and northwest Piedmont, a cooling
    atmosphere is expected to support a transition to snow Friday
    morning, roughly along and north of I-40. Heavy snow accumulations
    will be possible in these areas before the precipitation tapers
    off, or changes back to rain Friday afternoon. While rain and snow
    are expected to be the main precipitation types, a brief period of
    sleet or freezing rain will be possible, especially from the Blue
    Ridge escarpment through the northwest Piedmont, but any sleet or
    ice accumulations are expected to be minor.
    
    NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-063>065-501>507-509-070400-
    /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.210108T0000Z-210109T0500Z/
    Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-
    Buncombe-Catawba-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
    Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
    McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
    Polk Mountains-
    Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
    Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
    Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville,
    Advance, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand,
    Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville,
    Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville,
    Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Hickory, Newton,
    St. Stephens, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain,
    Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock,
    Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,
    Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese,
    Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
    Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
    233 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021
    
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
    FRIDAY EVENING...
    
    * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
      accumulations of 1 to 5 inches along with a light glaze of ice
      possible.
    
    * WHERE...Much of the mountains, northern foothills, and northwest
      Piedmont of North Carolina.
    
    * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening.
    
    * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
      conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

     

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