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Posts posted by calculus1
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26 minutes ago, CentralNC said:
So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing. Interesting. And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind. I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.
They referenced Davie in their discussion:
QuoteThe question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in. Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40 corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change the expected p-types and associated amounts.
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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:
I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state. It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something. Either way, impressive!
You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above.
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5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:
The HRRR is the Oprah of models. You get snow and you get snow and you get snow and you get snow...
...unless you are in the immediate lee of the Apps.
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Went hiking up to Rich Mountain Fire Tower yesterday on AT outside Hot Springs in Madison County. Snow on ground in spots from about 3200 feet and up. At top (3600 ft), up to four inches of snow still on the ground on the north slope of the mountain. The trail was actually quite icy at the summit.
The views from the fire tower were amazing yesterday. No wind, clear blue sky, 360-degree views, snow visible on all the higher peaks in every direction. I love winter hiking.
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Nice to see multiple threats show up on the 12Z GFSv16 today. Hours 138, 198, and 324 all show potential for snowfall in the SE. Different types of systems in each case, and still way out in the future, but they demonstrate what is possible when we have an active storm track and some blocking. I am excited about the possibilities...
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NWS GSP having fun this afternoon...
Quote.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1246 PM EST Monday...Sometimes in this business, you have to know when to throw in the towel when the atmosphere refuses to cooperate with the forecast. This is one of those times when a mid-course correction is required. Will dramatically increase precip probs into the likely range for the afternoon and into the early evening based on observations and radar trends upstream as this system is making a mockery of the previous forecast guidance. Fortunately, we are talking about a high probability of low precip amounts, because temps across the higher terrain should allow the precip to fall as light snow in many places. For the moment, it appears that temps and low QPF will keep the potential for snow accumulation below the threshold at which we would consider a Winter Wx Advisory, so none will be issued...yet...altho we continue to monitor. Temps will also not make it as warm as expected now that light precip either reaching the ground or evaporating aloft covers the fcst area. Have cut a category off the high temp. We will address the problems again in two hours.
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Legit light to moderate snow now here in Lenoir.
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Light flurries in Lenoir, NC! Seeing snow two out of four straight days is a win for non-mountainous areas.
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Just left an appointment in Lenoir, NC. I can report light flurries!
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Regardless of Webb's maps, your forecast was the closest to verification of anyone's that I saw,@griteater . Much better than the TV mets and the NWS on this one, especially outside the mountains. Well done, sir.
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Also, no 3-inch totals in Lenoir. I have family that lives there, and I visited Saturday morning. Most of the snow was already gone by then, if not in shade. Maybe they had an inch, at best, prior to melting commencing. I would question anyone's measurement ability if they think they got 3 inches of snow in Lenoir, except perhaps on top of Hibriten Mt (the mountain with the lit star at Christmas).
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I would also contend that no one in Hickory had an inch of snow. Two dustings (one at dawn and one at 4 PM) might add up to 0.5 inch, though. Baker's Mt in Catawba County did have between 1-2 inches, but not Hickory. Their elevation sure helped, I suppose.
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I now have nothing falling from the sky, but I managed to get a re-coating of the ground before it all stopped. I'm not sure to what two coatings add, but I'm going to call it a grand total of 0.5 inch for this storm (which I now assume has ended IMBY). That's a rather disappointing result when the winter storm warning was for 2-4 inches, and all I managed were two separate dustings, one at 7:00 AM and another at 4:30 PM. On the bright side, I did get to see it snow almost all day long, at varying degrees of intensity, but none greater than the 3:30 - 4:15 PM window.
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Yeah, it's been rippin' the proverbial fatties for about a half hour now. Easily re-coated all the grassy surfaces. If it would do this for a few hours, we might actually get to 2-4 inches, but I fear there's not too much time left here in Hickory. Earlier today has been steady light snow. This is finally moderate to heavy. It's been nice to see it all day, despite the lack of significant accumulation to this point.
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We can add Brad Panovich's Twitter feed to the whining thread. He's whining about why people are picking on him and how they don't listen.
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Just light snow, off and on, here in NE Hickory. The ULL is going to have to produce some serious rates this afternoon for anything to accumulate. Temperatures at ground level are not conducive to accumulation otherwise.
I thought@griteater was being a bit pessimistic in his final forecast, but he may prove to be too optimistic for all locations outside the mountains.
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Just spitting snow here in NE Hickory. The heavier returns are just to my west. However, the motion of the precipitation seems to be shifting more SW to NE. Hopefully, I will get into more solid rates soon.
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Light snow now in NE Hickory. Beautiful to watch fall.
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32.6/32 here in NE Hickory right now. A dusting to a half inch on every non-paved surface. It appears to be lightly sleeting right now. Eager for the ULL to crank up...
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^ Six-ten inches of snow for Hickory? I hope DT is correct, but I'm not banking on that.
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Latest NWS GSP Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast:
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42 minutes ago, CentralNC said:
RAH with nice write up tonight. Sounds like they might be upping totals
Agreed. That was an excellent discussion. Really interesting and informative.
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WSW wording. Everything but the kitchen sink possible.
QuoteURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 233 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 ...WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... .A storm system moving from the Deep South through the coastal plain of Georgia and South Carolina will spread precipitation into western North Carolina from late Thursday evening through Friday morning before tapering off Friday afternoon. Sufficient cold air will be in place such that mostly snow is expected across the mountains, with the exception of the lower valleys of southwest North Carolina. While precipitation is expected to initially fall as rain across the foothills and northwest Piedmont, a cooling atmosphere is expected to support a transition to snow Friday morning, roughly along and north of I-40. Heavy snow accumulations will be possible in these areas before the precipitation tapers off, or changes back to rain Friday afternoon. While rain and snow are expected to be the main precipitation types, a brief period of sleet or freezing rain will be possible, especially from the Blue Ridge escarpment through the northwest Piedmont, but any sleet or ice accumulations are expected to be minor. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-063>065-501>507-509-070400- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.210108T0000Z-210109T0500Z/ Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood- Buncombe-Catawba-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda 233 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches along with a light glaze of ice possible. * WHERE...Much of the mountains, northern foothills, and northwest Piedmont of North Carolina. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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WSW accompanied with a new probabilistic snowfall map:
Jan 31st CAD event
in Southeastern States
Posted
NWS GSP Winter Storm Watch: