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calculus1

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    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Jwisephoto said:

    Talk about getting snow holed :/ i get 3 inches and 10 miles down the road they get 10 lol what a time to live in Lenoir.

     

    6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

    SREF means are about the same as last run. Hickory is actually a bit lower 

    That's living in the lee of the Apps...  Argh!

    To be fair, the 3KNAM looked to have better potential for the lee than than did the 12K, but it ended at hour 60.

    Again, the onset of this event for areas outside the mountains continues to be delayed, while the duration may actually be lengthened a bit.

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    NWS GSP's overnight thoughts...

    Quote 
    
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday: The weather topic of the short term will
be detailing the ins and outs of the incoming system that will
enter the area. An open upper trough currently sitting over the
Rockies will nosedive to the south and east as it tracks towards
the lower MS Valley by the start of the forecast period. Model
guidance evolves the trough into an upper low at this point as
it scoots towards the area with a sfc low developing underneath
once the upper low taps into the western portions of the Gulf of
Mexico. Expect this system to ride north of the Gulf Coast as it
approaches the Southeast by late Thursday into Friday. High clouds
will move into the region early Thursday with the clouds deepening
and lowering by Thursday afternoon. Ample moisture advection coming
off the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and the Atlantic once the sfc low
approaches the Southeast coastline by Thursday night/early Friday
will allow for the cwa to become relatively saturated. Thursday will
be fairly cool and dry with PoPs entering the southwestern portions
of the cwa by Thursday afternoon and spreading northeast through the
evening and into the overnight hours. QPF amounts still differ from
run to run per model guidance, but has not changed much overall.
Locations that remain mostly liquid should see QPF amounts of ~0.25"
- 0.50+" for the duration of this event.

The 850 mb low has trended slightly northward over the past
couple of model runs and would likely surge a warm nose into
the region, despite a surge of colder air aloft from the upper low.
Mixed p-types will likely occur at the transition zone and very
light accumulations of ice could be in store at locations that fall
under the zone. As of now, the mountains will have enough cold air
to support a mostly snow event as a broad sfc high sets up shop to
the north and pumps in colder air in the low levels. With a warm
nose being indicated by the NAM and trending that way with global
models, light ice accumulations could reach as far west as the
northern foothills and Escarpment during the first hour or two at
the onset of precip, which would lower overall snow totals. A mix of
rain/snow seems evident between the I-40 and I-85 corridor with the
transition zone likely to settle somewhere between the two
corridors. A shift slightly to the south could bring the transition
zone closer to the I-85 corridor and provide the lower Piedmont and
Upstate of SC a brief period of wintry precip Friday morning, when
temperatures are cold enough at the surface. A few inches of snow is
looking more likely for the higher elevations with some locations
receiving 6+" at the highest peaks. An inch or two is becoming more
apparent north and along the I-40 corridor, a tighter gradient of
snow/ice accumulations between I-40 and I-85, and a possible dusting
can`t be ruled out along the I-85 corridor when it`s all said and
done by Friday night.

Another factor to consider is determining where the deformation band
develops. Model guidance have hinted at placing the band between I-
40 and I-85, which would produce a few locations with more snow than
what is forecasted, but it is way too early to determine the exact
set up of the deformation band. Areas south of I-85 may see a few
snowflakes mix in, but temperatures from the sfc to ~850 mb will
likely be too warm to support any brief periods of snow, especially
with a warm nose becoming more apparent as the event closes in on
the area. Expect the upper low and sfc to exit the region by Friday
night as dry, NW flow builds in and dries the area out with the
exception of favorable upslope NW flow snow lingering in the
northern mountains and along the TN Border Friday night/early
Saturday. Temperatures will likely remain below normal for a good
portion of the short term.

     

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Afternoon disco from GSP:

    Quote 
    
The next possible winter storm is on the horizon for early next
week. Still a ton of uncertainty with this yet to be formed system.
Most guidance shows a developing low pressure system somewhere near
the coast with ample cold air to work with across the region. The
big question mark should this low develop is how much if any
moisture and associated precipitation is thrown back into the colder
air. Right now the forecast features diurnally driven rain/snow
chances across the region Monday into Monday night.

     

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Afternoon disco from GSP:

    Quote 
    
Broad high pressure to our north will help to lock the cold air mass
into the region. As a result, the mountains will be predominately
snow through the event, except perhaps during the onset of
precipitation. Further east into the Piedmont it`s more up in the
air. It seems snow will prevail though north of I-40 (although a mix
is possible at times) with more of a split between I-85 and I-40,
with rain prevailing south of I-85 (although rain may mix with snow
at times overnight even here). A slight northward trend in the model
guidance suggests that a weak warm nose may press into the region
sometime Friday night. This will likely act to increase
precipitation rates and possibly lead to a narrow strip of
sleet/freezing rain. Snow accumulations of several inches are
possible across many mountain locations with this event (especially
near the escarpment to southern mountains). Light accumulations are
also in play east of the mountains, mainly from the foothills to I-
40 corridor, although can`t rule out light accumulations south to
the I-85 corridor. That all being said this event is still several
days out and winter storms are notoriously hard to predict, so stay
tuned!

     

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

    There are certain message board posters whose only purpose is to come in and say that it’ll never snow in xyz location.  They do it year after year after year.  I’ve done my best to block them.  If you guys could avoid replying to their posts it would help me out a lot.  Now back to your regularly scheduled programming!

    I see what you did there... ;):D

    • Haha 1

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    Not much outside the mountains....

     

    28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    Man with a track like that , it's a shame it's not much moisture outside the mountains...

     

    27 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    Well, this is just terrible trends for everyone outside the mountains. Seems to be a common theme the last few winters. We need an absolute perfect set up to squeeze out an inch in many places now. Could it be global warming? Does anyone know?

     

    Several of you have really wonky perceptions of where the mountains actually are in NC.  A lot of the western piedmont of North Carolina (essentially north and west of Charlotte) actually do quite well on this model run of the ECMWF-HiRes.  Plus, there is a decent snow signature in a horizontal line from Hickory to Raleigh.  This looks pretty good to me, with round 2 just emerging for early next week.

    • Like 6

    December Observations

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I am sitting on 99.36 total inches of rainfall this year, here on the last day of 2020. Can I wring out 0.64 inch prior to midnight? Fingers crossed...

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk


    Well, we didn't quite make the century mark. We only nabbed 0.10 additional inch since the earlier post, making the month of December close out with 4.94 inches and 2020 close out with 99.46 inches.

    What a year...in soooo many ways.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Drove up to Blowing Rock to have a White Christmas this early afternoon. Sunny and 28 in Lenoir but snow squalls and 13 in Blowing Rock, a short 10 miles away. Roads were pretty bad up there too. It's amazing the difference in weather in that short distance.

    30 back here at home in Hickory, which is an incredibly cold temp for 3 PM in the afternoon under full sun.

    Merry Christmas to all!

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 6

    December Observations

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Picked up another 1+ inch of rainfall yesterday.  (I'm not going to denigrate freezing rain's good name by referring to what fell yesterday as such.)  This brings my total to 97.90 inches for the calendar year.  Can I make it to 100 inches with about two weeks left in the year?!?!  I really hope so, because it seems like such a great landmark event, despite the fact that we don't need anymore rain.  :D

    • Like 1

    2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Yeah, I think the serious freezing rain is going to be limited to the extreme edge of the Blue Ridge, in this particular storm.  I just don't think we're going to get too much once you get away from there.  You're going to need to be west of Marion, west of Lenoir, west of Wilkesboro, etc. to see any significant icing from this storm, IMO.  The Hi-Res NAM really highlights that.  I will be surprised if I have anything more than a little glistening in the treetops here in Hickory.

    • Like 1
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