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Jersey Andrew

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  1. Jersey Andrew
    Question: What does top analog take into account? Pattern, progression, snow amounts?
  2. Jersey Andrew
    Actually think this hobby is so fascinating because of model discrepancies, biases, and disagreements. If they all agreed, would we enjoy the great chase as much? Gen Z will probably develop some AI that does away with uncertainty but until then enjoy the conversations and get ready for the Happy Hour GFS.
  3. Jersey Andrew
    Is their analog storm or pattern showing up for later January?
  4. Jersey Andrew
    Looks like a ton heavy precip events in next couple months. If we go down like ‘73 or ‘98 so be it but I think we will hit some big snow events too.
  5. Jersey Andrew
    Please tell me it’s snow for NYC on 10th. May be up in Manhattan that week.
  6. Jersey Andrew
    Interesting that Jan 96 was the granddaddy of snowstorms for you rather than Feb 2010. Jan 96 was 2 feet for me in Fairfax while 2010 was around 28 inches. Feb 2010 must be Knickerbocker clone for DC metro.
  7. Jersey Andrew
    Wonder if this will be a 1983 winter redux? Largely mild temps throughout January and February but just enough cold air to allow for monster Megalopolitan snowstorm.
  8. Jersey Andrew
    Does it appear the seasonal EURO and CANSIPS will be incorrect and that the colder and snowy turn will not occur later in January into February?
  9. Jersey Andrew
    Roger, does it even seem possible to have winters as cold as late 1970s in Northeast?
  10. Jersey Andrew
    I’m fearful of a ‘97-98 scenario where there is no cold air in the DC area. Maybe that PV split delivers in January but even Judah Cohen is starting to hedge his bets.
  11. Jersey Andrew
    I’m the next town over in Fairfax Station Clifton area and we finished at 1.1 inches. Also a large tree across the road in neighborhood which happens back in the woods. Yes already over last seasons snow total.
  12. Jersey Andrew
    Thanks for sharing some optimism Roger. Toronto can still get mighty cold in the winter as I experienced on some February trips up there for Super Bowl parties. Subzero lows and single digit highs reminded me of time spent in Chicago. The thing that surprised me though was the lack of massive snowstorms in Toronto’s history. No 20+ inch snows on record whereas NYC has 8 such storms and DC metro area at least 6.
  13. Jersey Andrew
    What is amazing to me is ‘73 was as bad a winter for snow in NYC and DC for that matter but was a full five degrees cooler than last year. That has to be climate change Don.
  14. Jersey Andrew
    Are there any recent examples of December fronts kicking off snowfall after significant rainfall in the DC metro area?
  15. Jersey Andrew
    What about lack of ridging on West Coast?
  16. Jersey Andrew
    Do you think the pattern will turn colder/snowier as we get closer to Christmas?
  17. Jersey Andrew
    Will it be cold enough to snow in Mid-Atlantic? December 6 is my birthday so I am rooting hard for snow.
  18. Jersey Andrew
    How do you reconcile big East Coast storms hitting 2006-2016 which deviated from historical norm in strength and size? Could climate change have accelerated since 2026 affecting worldwide weather patterns and base state?
  19. Jersey Andrew
    86-87 was a slow start too from what I remember as 9 year old in DC area. Then Double whammy 1/22 and 1/26 lays down 20 inches and February had storms too. Doubt this will be a cold winter but hoping for the snowy part.
  20. Jersey Andrew
    Can you expound upon why a less negative NAO could still produce snowstorms in 2023? It seems to me the deeply negative NAO of 2009-2010 may be off the board but maybe other factors come into play.
  21. Jersey Andrew
    Is this a snowstorm pattern for Mid-Atlantic or Northeast? Looks like it could be temp window before warmup.
  22. Jersey Andrew
    The sheer number of massive snowstorms to hit East Coast from 2006-2016 was historically anomalous and I wonder if climate change could have driven these outcomes. NYC had 20+ inch storms at least a half dozen times in this period when the previous hundred years they had two.
  23. Jersey Andrew
    December 2009 was an aberration in the past fifteen years. 2016 blizzard saved that season but so did February 2006 and 2003. I would rather long track a Big Dog than wait for a few paltry events. Just don’t know if climate change overwhelms perfect pattern.
  24. Jersey Andrew
    Do you expect a wet pattern this winter in desert Southwest including Las Vegas?
  25. Jersey Andrew
    Does this have any similarities to December 2009 or am I just hallucinating?
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