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Jersey Andrew

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Everything posted by Jersey Andrew

  1. Jersey Andrew
    That’s quite a split in Fairfax County. Cannot imagine it winds up that way although I could see Reston and Chantilly getting more than Fairfax and Springfield.
  2. Jersey Andrew
    I guess 2/06/10 is not the top analog anymore.
  3. Jersey Andrew
    Started lurking during Jan. 96 near the beginning of Internet when SNONUT and PTRAVEL broke down that epic storm. Still using AOL dial-up at the time which seems like the Stone Age.
  4. Jersey Andrew
    His two volume book on Northeast snowstorms is bible for winter weather weenies. Wonder if he participates in any weather discussion boards?
  5. Jersey Andrew
    Jan 2016 was first forecast to be DC-Baltimore special with only glancing blow to NYC. I was living up in northeast Jersey at the time and was stunned we got 28 inches.
  6. Jersey Andrew
    Question: What does top analog take into account? Pattern, progression, snow amounts?
  7. Jersey Andrew
    Actually think this hobby is so fascinating because of model discrepancies, biases, and disagreements. If they all agreed, would we enjoy the great chase as much? Gen Z will probably develop some AI that does away with uncertainty but until then enjoy the conversations and get ready for the Happy Hour GFS.
  8. Jersey Andrew
    Is their analog storm or pattern showing up for later January?
  9. Jersey Andrew
    Looks like a ton heavy precip events in next couple months. If we go down like ‘73 or ‘98 so be it but I think we will hit some big snow events too.
  10. Jersey Andrew
    Please tell me it’s snow for NYC on 10th. May be up in Manhattan that week.
  11. Jersey Andrew
    Interesting that Jan 96 was the granddaddy of snowstorms for you rather than Feb 2010. Jan 96 was 2 feet for me in Fairfax while 2010 was around 28 inches. Feb 2010 must be Knickerbocker clone for DC metro.
  12. Jersey Andrew
    Wonder if this will be a 1983 winter redux? Largely mild temps throughout January and February but just enough cold air to allow for monster Megalopolitan snowstorm.
  13. Jersey Andrew
    Does it appear the seasonal EURO and CANSIPS will be incorrect and that the colder and snowy turn will not occur later in January into February?
  14. Jersey Andrew
    Roger, does it even seem possible to have winters as cold as late 1970s in Northeast?
  15. Jersey Andrew
    I’m fearful of a ‘97-98 scenario where there is no cold air in the DC area. Maybe that PV split delivers in January but even Judah Cohen is starting to hedge his bets.
  16. Jersey Andrew
    I’m the next town over in Fairfax Station Clifton area and we finished at 1.1 inches. Also a large tree across the road in neighborhood which happens back in the woods. Yes already over last seasons snow total.
  17. Jersey Andrew
    Thanks for sharing some optimism Roger. Toronto can still get mighty cold in the winter as I experienced on some February trips up there for Super Bowl parties. Subzero lows and single digit highs reminded me of time spent in Chicago. The thing that surprised me though was the lack of massive snowstorms in Toronto’s history. No 20+ inch snows on record whereas NYC has 8 such storms and DC metro area at least 6.
  18. Jersey Andrew
    What is amazing to me is ‘73 was as bad a winter for snow in NYC and DC for that matter but was a full five degrees cooler than last year. That has to be climate change Don.
  19. Jersey Andrew
    Are there any recent examples of December fronts kicking off snowfall after significant rainfall in the DC metro area?
  20. Jersey Andrew
    What about lack of ridging on West Coast?
  21. Jersey Andrew
    Do you think the pattern will turn colder/snowier as we get closer to Christmas?
  22. Jersey Andrew
    Will it be cold enough to snow in Mid-Atlantic? December 6 is my birthday so I am rooting hard for snow.
  23. Jersey Andrew
    How do you reconcile big East Coast storms hitting 2006-2016 which deviated from historical norm in strength and size? Could climate change have accelerated since 2026 affecting worldwide weather patterns and base state?
  24. Jersey Andrew
    86-87 was a slow start too from what I remember as 9 year old in DC area. Then Double whammy 1/22 and 1/26 lays down 20 inches and February had storms too. Doubt this will be a cold winter but hoping for the snowy part.
  25. Jersey Andrew
    Can you expound upon why a less negative NAO could still produce snowstorms in 2023? It seems to me the deeply negative NAO of 2009-2010 may be off the board but maybe other factors come into play.
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