yoda

Watch coming soon for Northern Indiana and SW Michigan

Tornado Warning westen suburbs of Chicago

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 1136 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 MOC023-150500- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250315T0500Z/ Butler MO- 1136 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY... At 1135 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was approaching Poplar Bluff, moving northeast at 40 mph. Poplar Bluff needs to take cover immediately! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Poplar Bluff around 1140 PM CDT. Fisk around 1145 PM CDT.

Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...36... Valid 150320Z - 150515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 36 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a history of producing tornadoes will continue to pose a tornado threat (including significant tornadoes) for the next couple of hours as they move into northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. DISCUSSION...Two long-lived supercells moving across north-central AR and south-central MO have had a history of producing tornadoes per dual-pol data and spotter reports. Based on rotational velocity estimates and the magnitude of the convective environment (characterized by STP values up to 10), one or more of these tornadoes were likely significant (EF-2+). These cells will continue to reside in this exceptionally rare STP environment for the next 1-2 hours as they move into far northeast AR and southeast MO. Consequently, the potential for additional long-track and significant (possibly intense) tornadoes will continue across this region. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...36... Valid 150320Z - 150515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 36 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a history of producing tornadoes will continue to pose a tornado threat (including significant tornadoes) for the next couple of hours as they move into northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. DISCUSSION...Two long-lived supercells moving across north-central AR and south-central MO have had a history of producing tornadoes per dual-pol data and spotter reports. Based on rotational velocity estimates and the magnitude of the convective environment (characterized by STP values up to 10), one or more of these tornadoes were likely significant (EF-2+). These cells will continue to reside in this exceptionally rare STP environment for the next 1-2 hours as they move into far northeast AR and southeast MO. Consequently, the potential for additional long-track and significant (possibly intense) tornadoes will continue across this region. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

PDS TOR Watch issued URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 36 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Far Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM until 300 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch area over the next several hours. Environmental conditions are very favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. If storms can remain discrete, potential exists for a few long-track tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

18z NAM NEST and 18z NAM both look a bit better severe weather prospect-wise to me for us

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Western Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will move very quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. Widespread severe/damaging winds are the main threat this afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching up to 80-90 mph. The tornado and large hail threat is expected to increase later this evening, with sustained supercells potentially posing a threat for multiple strong tornadoes as moisture returns northward across Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 15 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread rapidly north-northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for widespread severe/damaging winds. The strongest wind gusts could reach 80-90 mph on an isolated basis. Some hail and perhaps a tornado could also occur if a supercell can form and be sustained later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Lincoln NE to 50 miles north of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19055.

I think the NE part was more for NE of us? Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail.

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-151830- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Confidence has increased for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible. Gale-force winds are possible Sunday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for strong winds associated with showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds to around 45 mph are possible outside of thunderstorms Sunday, which may result in a few downed trees, branches, and power lines. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Sunday afternoon and evening. $$ MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-151830- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Confidence has increased for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible. Gusty winds to around 45 mph are possible outside of thunderstorms Sunday, which may result in a few downed trees, branches, and power lines. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Sunday afternoon and evening.

@weatherwiz 3rd time ever SPC has issued Day 2 HIGH risk

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast.

3rd time ever

Uh oh

CAPE isn't too bad, around 600 J/KG... but those SRH values at both 1km and 3km are >300, effective shear over 60 kts.... 0-6km shear is extreme... 1km shear of 40 kts Tells me there is definitely a threat for QLCS tornadoes in that line

Hmmm y 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

I'll be awake since I'll be at work

Wonder if we have enough clearing for the eclipse tonight

They got dropped to upper 50s for DC metro for both days in this mornings zones

Pretty large ENH and hatched areaon new Day 3 (Friday)

Day 6 SPC OTLK

Seattle has traded Metcalf to the Steelers https://www.profootballrumors.com/2025/03/seahawks-steelers-agree-to-d-k-metcalf-trade#ref=home https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1898883556031475713