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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Pretty active day per the LSR https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=LSR
  2. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 MDC013-021-181915- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-260718T1915Z/ Carroll MD-Frederick MD- 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... At 257 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Taneytown, or 8 miles southeast of Emmitsburg, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Taneytown, Keysville, and Harney. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for north central Maryland. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  3. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Western Howard County in central Maryland... Northern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 259 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Mount Lena to near Poolesville, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Columbia, Germantown, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Hagerstown, Olney, Damascus, Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Montgomery Village, Eldersburg, Ballenger Creek, Redland, Mount Airy, Robinwood, Taneytown, and Brunswick. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central and north central Maryland. && LAT...LON 3918 7686 3910 7753 3961 7771 3972 7748 3972 7712 TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 246DEG 26KT 3957 7762 3914 7746 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$
  4. yoda
    Storm SE of Warrenton looks interesting...
  5. yoda
    I believe it was @high risk who said there was rotation aloft today... but that it was weak in the low levels
  6. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 234 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thurmont, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Taneytown, Union Bridge, Harney, Rocky Ridge, Detour, Uniontown, Keysville, Keymar, and Graceham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  7. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 233 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Damascus and Green Valley around 240 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Park Mills, Monrovia, Buckeystown, and Clarksburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3936 7717 3935 7717 3934 7719 3930 7715 3929 7715 3923 7721 3930 7744 3935 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 268DEG 21KT 3932 7738 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
  8. yoda
    Almost looks like that storm/complex is turning more southward...
  9. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 226 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 226 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, New Market, Boyds, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Ijamsville, Mount Pleasant, Park Mills, and Lucketts.
  10. yoda
    WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 495/496 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 219 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026 MDC013-021-027-031-033-190100- /O.CAN.KLWX.SV.A.0496.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.TO.A.0495.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 495 UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND CARROLL FREDERICK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BALLENGER CREEK, BETHESDA, BOWIE, BOYDS, BUCKEYSTOWN, CLARKSVILLE, CLINTON, COLLEGE PARK, COLUMBIA, ELDERSBURG, FOUR CORNERS, FREDERICK, GAITHERSBURG, GAMBER, GERMANTOWN, GLENMONT, GREENBELT, HISTORIC ELLICOTT CITY, MONTPELIER, PARK MILLS, SILVER SPRING, SIMPSONVILLE, SUITLAND-SILVER HILL, TANTALLON, WESTMINSTER, AND WOODSTOCK. $$
  11. yoda
    That seems odd
  12. yoda
    Fwiw, Radarscope is tagging max hail of 3.5"
  13. yoda
    FDK storm really needs a TW...
  14. yoda
    FDK cell may need a TW soon... 70mph winds and tornado possible tag in it in latest SWS
  15. yoda
    Another MCD for C into S VA into NC with STWatch needed soon in it... I guess we will get lumped into that Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181756Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25 kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734 37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087 35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  16. yoda
  17. yoda
    Just appeared to in like last 5 minutes if you put radar in motion
  18. yoda
    DPs are in the 75-80 range across the region as temperatures rise into the low 90s
  19. yoda
    Yes, agree. The watch that just came out from them goes into E PA which was a bit surprising to me considering the new watch box for our area would seem to go overtop that... I guess your idea would work. The watch to our north in PA covers like half our MCD lol
  20. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1648.html Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Pennsylvania...eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of Maryland...Delaware...southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181650Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through early-mid afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary concern as storms evolve into eastward-moving clusters and line segments. A watch is likely prior to 18z. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is likely prior to 18z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39077931 40007859 40547698 40477526 40267451 39987411 39137439 38627538 38437699 38487839 38647934 39077931 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  21. yoda
    Sounds like leaning towards Tornado Watch
  22. yoda
    TW up from CTP on a storm moving ESE... would be near HGR in a few hours
  23. yoda
    @high risk could there be some differential heating boundaries later? I'm assuming that with the rain/storms in PA, the WF will not push as far north and increase risk for a few tornadoes?
  24. yoda
    Should be getting a MCD soon, probably in next hour
  25. yoda
    S winds being reported on the 11am obs up to BWI... 84/75 S at 9 at DCA... C VA like CHO, Culpepper, EZF already upper 80s
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