yoda

SLGT risk pushed further south and eastward all the way to the coast on the 1730z

Tor driven moderate on the day 1 1630z OTLK

Oh ok (morning AFD from LWX) KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday. A deep, digging, positively northern stream trough and its associated strong cold front dive out of the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold front crosses the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. All of this creates a very complex severe weather setup across the region. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to include most of the area. However, it does come with some caveats, which I`ll reiterate here. Primary among them is the question of ongoing morning showers/convection, and the potential impact that could have no destabilization during the afternoon. As is typical, model guidance is very split on how much instability is able to recover ahead of the pre-frontal trough that will be the primary severe threat on the day. I do think that seeing the latest CAM guidance in favor of 750-1250 J/kg of CAPE being able to develop has me a bit more concerned. Assuming that we do get adequate CAPE, storms will fire along a pre-frontal trough during the early afternoon hours across eastern WV before moving east towards the metros during the evening. The environment where storms may develop will be impressive from a shear standpoint, with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear, and substantial amounts of Storm Relative Helicity (150+ m2/s2 0-1km, and 400+ m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer). This is more than favorable for supercell structures to develop, with damaging winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two not out of the question. Looking at the combination of shear and instability, the STP is actually pretty impressive in model guidance. For this reason, there is actually a CIG1 hatched area in our 2-5% tornado probabilities across western MD and into the Potomac Highlands. I wouldn`t even argue having with having that threat even extended a bit further east along the MD/PA border in a future update, but will let the 12z CAMs and machine learning guidance come in for evaluation. Additionally, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will all be threats with any storms that develop on Wednesday afternoon. At any rate, Wednesday afternoon/evening is a day to watch closely. Have your severe weather plans ready, in case you find yourself needing to act on them. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from our office, as well as the Storm Prediction Center, for the latest updates. Confidence drops off significantly with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of showers could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. Would expect this to be more along the lines of a gusty surge along the front (30-40 mph), followed by increased synoptic winds shortly thereafter.

Day 2 SLGT for all

Interesting... SPC AC 091925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development. ...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast. ...OH Valley... Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026

Good afternoon discussion from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible west of I-95 Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through. A significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday. Still monitoring the progression of a deep digging positively northern stream trough out of the Great Lakes and it`s associated strong cold front which looks to cross the area during the late Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5) west of a line from from Frederick/Hagerstown, MD southwest toward Strasburg/Harrisonburg/Monterey, VA. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) east of these areas (including both the DC/Baltimore metros) with a focus mainly west of I-95. The primary threat with storms would be wind and locally heavy rainfall. Secondary threats would include an isolated tornado given the increased shear/helicity and large hail with dry air aloft. CSU probabilities remain between 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards areawide while NSSL/NCAR probs generally focus on areas, mainly west of US-15 and in particularly west of the Blue Ridge. CIPS probabilities remain less than 10 percent for this event. Plenty of uncertainty remain in regards to the severe weather threat Wednesday into Thursday. Timing will be important along with cloud cover. 6z/12z model soundings from KCHO, KIAD, and KHGR all have hints of a capping inversion which could squander convective development. The question is to if the cap breaks and to when it happens with a focus west of Frederick, MD down toward the I-66/US- 50 corridor and points west per the latest CAM guidance. One or two strong storms could fire within the warm sector Wednesday afternoon along a lead shortwave trough out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Any of these storms could become severe (i.e either multicellular clusters or supercells) given the added shear and instability to work with. Confidence drops off with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of shower could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. The severe threat diminishes Thursday as the front pushes through. Expect any residual moisture over the mountains to change to snow with coating to 1" expected on grassy/elevated surfaces.

SPC opens Day 3 severe bidding with SLGT risk i81 corridor west and MRGL for the rest of us

12z NAM looked a lil intriguing with its soundings at hrs 78 to 84 across the region. Granted it can change next run of course and its at range... but looks like our first real chance of severe

LWX AFD from this afternoon on Wednesday into Thursday KEY MESSAGE 2.. A strong cold front brings gusty winds, colder temperatures, and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances starting Wednesday. Not too much change in regards to timing or hazards for the midweek period. Still monitoring the deep digging upper level trough dropping down out the Great Lakes region as well as a piece of southern stream energy ejecting out of the southern Plains region. At the surface, will lay a strong cold frontal boundary which will flip the script when it comes to late Winter and early Spring. 6/12z guidance still has this front progged to move through the area some time late Wednesday into Thursday. As for severe weather, it will be highly dependent on timing with a focus remaining west of the Blue Ridge. This is the area where better instability and shear may be maximized given a lead shortwave that should touch off some convection over the mountains Wednesday afternoon as the northern stream trough tries to take a negative tilt. CSU learning machine probabilities remain around 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards for the entirety of the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. NSSL probabilities are quite similar with a focus more on areas west of US-15 and out across the Allegheny Mountains. Meanwhile, SPC continues to highlight a 15 percent probability zone for portions of Garrett Co. MD during the Day 4 (Wednesday into Thursday). Storms will have plenty of fuel to work with as temperatures surge into the 70s and low 80s with dewpoint factors getting into the upper 50s and low 60s. Shear is a bit more uncertain with strong southwesterly flow at the surface ahead of the front and gusty northwesterly flow likely behind the front heading into the Thursday timeframe. Also, any early convection over the mountains combined with a later timing of the front (i.e Wednesday night into Thursday) could hamper convective output. Wind and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats for storms if they can develop Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The bigger story with the front will be the notable drop in temperatures heading into late week. Temperatures will take a 15 to 25 degree dive Thursday with highs ranging from the 30s over the mountains to low 60s east of I-95 and across southern MD/central VA Piedmont. Some anafrontal snow is even possible in the Alleghenies as the front departs Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Temperatures do level out Friday with highs in the upper 40s over northeast MD/the Alleghenies and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across the region. Similar values are expected this weekend despite another front passing through the region.

The 70 degree temperatures have captured me

Yuck at the 12z CMC at the end of its run... do not want

Learned from the best - Wilson

Seems could be interesting out west tomorrow afternoon into night? Afternoon discussion from LWX We`re expecting two rounds of storms tomorrow. The first round is expected to form within a surface trough just to the east of the Alleghenies during the mid-late afternoon hours. Model soundings show a fair amount of dry air in place aloft, and large scale forcing for ascent won`t be overly strong, so areal coverage with this first round of storms is only expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. If storms do become well established, the background environment will have enough instability (around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and shear (around 40 knots in the 0-6 km layer) to promote updraft rotation. Isolated instances of damaging winds or hail may be possible with these storms as they move eastward from the Potomac Highlands toward the I-81 corridor and then the Blue Ridge/Catoctins during the mid-late afternoon hours. Conditions will likely remain dry to the east of US-15 during the daylight hours. A second round of pre-existing storms will approach from the Ohio Valley, reaching the Allegheny Front around sunset. This round of storms could be well organized into a squall line, and may potentially be quite intense. With the loss of daytime heating, the trend will likely be downward with the strength of this activity as it moves into our area, but damaging winds may still be possible, especially along and west of the Allegheny Front. Large scale forcing for ascent may enable these storms to hold together in a weakened form as they move eastward across the forecast area during the first half of the night. As of now, SPC has Garrett County in Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with locations further east to about US-15 in a Marginal Risk.

Interesting... I did not know you could do that. I will definitely look into this website more

Sounds like the Capitals are waving the white flag on this season... Dowd moved yesterday... Carlson this morning

Impossible. It precipitated in the desert?

Hmmm... sneaky severe this evening?

You can clearly see the blue sky

I see @EastCoast NPZ got an inch looks like Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 242 PM EST Mon Mar 02 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0130 PM Snow 2 E Stephens City 39.10N 78.18W 03/02/2026 M0.9 inch Frederick VA Trained Spotter

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ039-040-051-053-054-501-502-505-506- 526-527-022030- District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Madison- Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Madison, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 930 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow midday and afternoon, accumulating around an inch on unpaved surfaces. Some slushy accumulation on paved surfaces possible. * WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, northern Virginia, and central Maryland. * WHEN...The steadiest snow is expected between noon and 5 PM this afternoon. * IMPACTS...In bands of heavier snow, road surfaces may become slushy or even snow covered for a brief period this afternoon. For this evening, any standing water or slush may freeze with temperatures around 30 to 32 degrees.

I am kind of surprised though not to see WWAs. They have been mentioning ice in the zones for a bit now... up to a tenth of an inch. I thought even a glaze brought out WWA criteria

March DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.1 +2.0 +0.7 +2.3 +3.5 +2.6 +2.3 +3.1 -0.2

I didn't know about this... did any of you? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

@weatherwiz https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

Looks a bit overdone IMO... upper 70s seems a bit of a reach the way this winter has gone re temperatures in the LR. But I will take 60s