yoda

Sounds like it... but probably won't extend into LWX CWA yet

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1035 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... North Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 145 AM EDT. * At 1035 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Purcellville... Round Hill... Hamilton... Hillsboro... Lincoln... Hughesville... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

4pm afternoon AFD from LWX about Debby SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Debby will start to lift northward tomorrow as it begins to feel the influence of troughing well off toward the northwest over the Great Lakes. While the main circulation associated with the remnants of Debby will remain off to our south during the daylight hours tomorrow, a weak lobe of shear vorticity in the mid-levels to the north of Debby will lift northward through locations to the east of the Blue Ridge. Differential cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of this feature may provide enough lift to initiate some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning through the first half of the afternoon. Any storms tomorrow morning may be capable of producing very heavy rainfall within what will be a tropical airmass characterized by precipitable water values over two inches. Confidence was too low for a Flood Watch to the east of the Blue Ridge at this time, but one may eventually need to be considered for during the day tomorrow. To the west of the Blue Ridge, showers and a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but much of the day should remain dry. Tomorrow night attention will turn to the remnants of Debby as it lifts northward and starts to interact with a trough off to our northwest. The main core of the system is expected to lift northward from central Virginia through the Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands tomorrow night. Very heavy rainfall is expected over those locations tomorrow night into the first half of Friday. A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for those locations, where a widespread 3-5 inches of rain is expected, with isolated totals of up to 7 inches. To the east of the Blue Ridge, much of the night may remain dry as Debby`s remnant circulation passes off toward the west. Another concern tomorrow night and into the day Friday will be tornadoes. With the system`s surface low taking a track over the Alleghenies, a very favorable shear profile and limited instability will move northward across central Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley tomorrow night. SPC has expanded both the Marginal and Slight risks northward through our area to account for this potential tornado activity tomorrow night. As we move through the day Friday, the system`s surface low will lift northeastward across PA. As it does so, a southward trailing convective line will track eastward across locations to the east of the Blue Ridge. This line of storms may be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, as well as tornadoes. Since this convective line will be a smaller scale feature, we have decided to hold off on issuing a Flood Watch to the east of the Blue Ridge for the time being. The line of storms associated with the remnants of Debby should progress east of the area Friday evening, with dry conditions expected during the second half of Friday night.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 MDZ001-003-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-503-504-507-508- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-080245- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0021.240809T0000Z-240810T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Garrett-Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Orange, Winchester, Grantsville, Mount Storm, Big Meadows, Ridgeville, Oakland, Harrisonburg, Wintergreen, Sugar Grove, Monterey, Front Royal, Staunton, Waynesboro, Bayard, Petersburg, Riverton, Hagerstown, New Market, Keyser, Charles Town, New Creek, Stanley, Russelldale, Lovingston, Madison, Shenandoah, Mountain Lake Park, Fort Ashby, Oak Flat, Frostburg, Woodstock, Luray, Moorefield, Shepherdstown, Berryville, Culpeper, Martinsburg, Mount Jackson, Washington, Brandywine, Hightown, Stanardsville, Cumberland, Paw Paw, Charlottesville, Franklin, Strasburg, Romney, Antioch, Ruddle, Stuarts Draft, Headsville, Elk Garden, and Gordonsville 243 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Central and Eastern Allegany, Extreme Western Allegany, Garrett and Washington, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Highland, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Highland, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The remnants of Debby will move northward through the area, leading to heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday. A widespread 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is expected within the Watch area, with localized totals up to 7 inches. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Day 2 SPC OTLK moved SLGT risk NW quite alot

11pm track from NHC pretty much the same... along or just east of i81 corridor

H/t @mitchnick

FWIW, 18z Euro has Debby going up the i81 corridor

5pm track of Debby is along or just east of the i81 corridor

That's too much rainfall

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 MDZ006-008-011-507-508-070330- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0020.240806T1922Z-240807T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- Including the cities of Jarrettsville, Elkton, Cockeysville, Reisterstown, Baltimore, and Aberdeen 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast and northern Maryland, including the following areas, in northeast Maryland, Cecil. In northern Maryland, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. * WHEN...Through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Recent heavy rainfall has significantly lowered flash flood guidance in northeast Maryland in recent days, including several inches today in isolated spots. More torrential rainfall is possible this afternoon as multiple mesoscale convective complexes push through, which may result in flash flooding. Generally, most places will get another inch or so form this, but isolated spots where training occurs could see 2 to 3 inches of rainfall in a relatively short period of time. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

245pm afternoon HWO for all 3 regions from LWX have this DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Tropical Cyclone Debby will approach the region later this week, potentially bringing impacts Thursday night through Saturday morning. Potential impacts include flooding due to heavy rainfall, tornadoes, gusty winds, tidal flooding, and Gale force winds over the waters. For the latest information on the track and potential impacts from Debby, please consult forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov.

Are you extrapolating after the end of the run at 00z Friday?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... Parkville... Carney... Perry Hall... Rosedale... Rossville... White Marsh... Kingsville... Pleasant Hills... Joppatowne... Nottingham... Upper Falls... Gunpowder... Fullerton... Bradshaw...

12z UKIE concurs with the honorable 12z CMC delegates... 4 to 8 inches areawide BR and i81 corridor crushed

12z GEFS mean is right around 3" FWIW

12z CMC is 3-6/4-8"

00z UKIE FWIW

00z CMC tries to flood the i95 corridor... especially from DC to EZF to RIC

We take the 00z ICON

WPC still going big

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form. The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft. The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame. Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. 4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka, Florida including Tampa Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Dry Tortugas is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Looks like it's going to stay there