yoda

The complex near DC is throwing out a bunch of outflow boundaries

Radarscope says there's rotation... but it's basically right next to the radar

Oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 440 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 MDC031-VAC059-107-292115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-240829T2115Z/ Montgomery MD-Loudoun VA-Fairfax VA- 440 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN AND NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX COUNTIES... At 439 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ashburn, or near Broadlands, moving north at 15 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Poolesville, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Great Falls, Countryside, Arcola, Belmont, Beallsville, Dawsonville, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3896 7737 3894 7746 3896 7753 3920 7759 3921 7732 TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 178DEG 12KT 3904 7746 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

Look south

I can see the trees "disappearing" off to my west... Rain here though

Pop up storm right over me

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up till 11pm

Also FWIW Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1156 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 VAZ025>031-037>040-050-051-055-056-501-502-505>508-526-527-WVZ052- 053-300000- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0023.240829T1900Z-240830T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Stafford- Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Sterling, Ashburn, Strasburg, New Market, Madison, Turnbull, Haymarket, Staunton, Orange, Gordonsville, Berryville, Washington, Lake Ridge, Martinsburg, Stuarts Draft, Stanardsville, Luray, Wintergreen, Front Royal, Warrenton, Harrisonburg, Woodbridge, Winchester, Shepherdstown, Charles Town, Manassas, Culpeper, Falmouth, Leesburg, Mount Jackson, Woodstock, Big Meadows, Montclair, Shenandoah, Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Dale City, Purcellville, Stanley, and Waynesboro 1156 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren and Western Loudoun and panhandle West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley and Jefferson. * WHEN...From 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, with localized rainfall totals of two to four inches possible within a one to two hour period. This may result in flash flooding of small streams and creeks as well as urban and poor drainage areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

1630z OTLK from SPC just added SLGT risk for most of us

CWG says 101 was the high

Oops Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 227 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will enter the area tonight and meander across the region through Friday. The front will return north as a warm front Saturday followed by another frontal passage early Sunday. High pressure returns for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Thunderstorms have begun to develop over southeastern OH and the northern WV panhandle. Latest HREF guidance suggests these storms will enter western MD around 21Z and track E or ESE along the Mason Dixon line or across northern/northeast MD this evening before exiting east of the Chesapeake Bay overnight. There will be a threat of damaging wind gusts given very hot and humid air mass. As far as temps this afternoon, only IAD seems on track to tie the record. BWI and DCA appear unlikely to set any new records.

Looks like a hit for you?

Pretty decent storm here... heavy pouring rain and some good gusts

Hmmm... from this mornings 0600Z SPC OTLK disco. Granted it's 0/0/5... but... ..Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well.

Intriguing discussion by Webb

Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 DCZ001-252100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 70. West winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 30 percent. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny, hot with highs around 100.

@weatherwiz SLGT risk added at 1730z Day 2 update... 0/15/15

He just did

Looks like a run at 100 on Wednesday

From this afternoons AFD from LWX .CLIMATE... Below is the list of daily record low temperatures for August 22. Climate Site Aug 22Forecast Low Washington-National (DCA) 51F (1923)57F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 51F (1976)50F Baltimore (BWI) 52F (1956)54F Martinsburg (MRB) 38F (1925)46F Annapolis (NAK)* 50F (2000)59F Hagerstown (HGR)* 44F (1982)47F Charlottesville (CHO)* 54F (1925)50F *records are not officially issued for these stations.

Looks like you got some decent rain right now