yoda

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will slowly cross the area through tonight bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Cool high pressure builds back into the area from the north Thursday as the front sinks south and east of region. The front will remain stalled to our south Friday before retreating back to the north this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 18Z, a small shortwave/vortmax (remnant MCV feature) was moving across the Appalachians in eastern WV up into SW PA. Surface winds, albeit light, have occasionally backed to the SE over portions of the Shenandoah Valley, indicative of enhanced cyclonic flow around this feature. Guidance seems to be underdoing the effects of this MCV, so anticipate a bit better low-level convergence and mid-level shear as it progresses east. This will likely result in a rapidly developing band of thunderstorms over eastern WV over the foothills west of I-81 by mid afternoon. This band of storms should then progress E/NE crossing the Blue Ridge around 4 PM, then entering the metros around 5-6 PM. These storms may further be enhanced along and in the lee of a pressure trough that arcs from northern DE southwest to near Charlottesville; higher CAPE exists east of this boundary as of 18Z. The main threat with this activity given meager mid-level lapse rates is damaging wind gusts, with a conditional risk for an isolated tornado where surface winds become sufficiently backed to the SE ahead of the MCV, or east of the surface pressure trough. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is possible this evening as the synoptic cold front (currently over OH/northwest PA) pushes in. Interaction between the surface trough, MCV, and cold front could result in multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the I-95 corridor into southern MD. With ample moisture in place (PWs rising to over 2" by evening), this supports the ongoing Flood Watch for potential flash flooding. Rainfall rates under the heaviest storms could approach 2-3 inches per hour, with localized/isolated totals under repeated storms possibly approaching 5 or 6 inches.

MCD out for extreme N MD

94 at BWI and IAD, 95 at DCA at noon

10 am temps DCA 92 BWI 89 IAD 90

12z NAM sim radar looks decent for this evening

9am temps DCA 89 BWI 86 IAD 87

Why does this bias always seem to show up during the summer months?

So if either of them hit 101 today then it's the longest streak in each station's history?

Bow echo or bowing MCS would be nice

103/104 probably in play if clouds don't mess it up

Amazon prime days suck. Don't be ordering a whole bunch of stuff lol. I work at SDC1 now... basically like same day delivery station. Order it in the morning, get it in the afternoon. Going to be a long next few days

Heat Advisories up for tomorrow

30% wind added in E NY into VT

And also Day 1

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 434 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VAC107-152045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-240715T2045Z/ Loudoun VA- 434 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY... At 434 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Leesburg, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Lansdowne, Purcellville, Hamilton, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Lucketts, and Lincoln. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3922 7746 3921 7747 3919 7748 3918 7751 3915 7753 3912 7752 3911 7749 3910 7748 3911 7772 3915 7773 3922 7769 3925 7749 TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 269DEG 18KT 3917 7758 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

Looks like a tie at BWI

100 at 4pm reported at both FDK and Cumberland MD

Regular URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will soon develop across Iowa in a very moist and unstable air mass. Activity will track eastward and organize into a fast-moving bowing cluster, capable of very damaging wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible across this region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Des Moines IA to 5 miles east southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. &&

BWI at 101 at 4pm obs DCA 99 IAD 98

3 STWs up from LWX right now

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... Both tornado and wind probabilities have been increased with the 20z update to 10 percent, and 45 percent SIG, respectively. Latest satellite imagery shows a modified outflow boundary draped across far eastern IA into northern IL. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s amid strong heating is resulting in a corridor or strong to extreme instability across the region. Favorable vertical shear will support initial supercells, organizing into a bowing MCS with time as low-level flow remains orthogonal to the developing band of storms. The greatest severe wind potential is expected along the instability gradient in the vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary, extending from far eastern IA into extreme southern WI, northern IL, and far northwest IN into this evening. Widespread gusts of 60-70 mph are expected, with some gusts to 85 mph possible. Given favorable low-level shear, mesovortex tornadoes are likely along and near the apex of the developing bow late this afternoon into evening. For short term details on severe potential across this area, reference MCD 1630.