yoda

12z CMC is fast... 97L is gone by next Thursday out into the Atlantic

I know it's probably not the best tropical model, but 12z CMC would be a little interesting next Tuesday into Wednesday with 97L around here

Maybe some intrigue tomorrow? From morning AFD from LWX Friday`s high temperatures look similar to Thursday, with a bit of uncertainty should any cloud debris from upstream be a little thicker than currently anticipated. Humidity/Tds look higher, though, which should more than offset any slight temperature deviations. Heat index values of 105-110 are likely for most east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, with 100-105 for the lower elevations to the west during the afternoon. There should be some more clouds Saturday which may lower temps/heat indices a bit, but very hot and humid conditions will continue regardless. The combination of the hot, humid, and unstable airmass as well as modestly increasing flow and height falls associated with the approaching trough/surface cold front lend to the potential of somewhat more widespread and organized severe weather. Some guidance (00Z CMC, NAM12, NAMNest, ECMWF) have mid-level lapse rates approaching 6.5 C/km Friday afternoon which would further bolster this potential. The main threat with the increased flow and steep low-level lapse rates looks to be damaging wind, but if the mid- level lapse rates can steepen to around or steeper than 6.5 C/km there could be a more notable (albeit marginal) hail threat, too. Upper flow of 50+ kts and low/mid-level flow of 25-35 kts is expected Saturday which could further organize storms into lines or bands and result in a conditional hail threat in addition to wind. Low-level flow looks weaker but more backed on Friday, so a conditional/marginal tornado threat could evolve depending on subtle mesoscale variations which have inherently low predictability a couple days in advance. Increasing PWs to 2+ inches along with the potential for multiple rounds of training storms along and ahead of the slow-moving front may introduce an increasing flood/flash flood threat as well, despite the recent drought conditions. This type of environment could favor rainfall rates of a couple inches in an hour, so any persistent or repeat convection could result in isolated excessive totals and subsequent flooding during this time. The potential for showers and thunderstorms currently looks highest during the typical afternoon/evening time, unless any more organized wave or complex develops and approaches from upstream. This latter scenario is of low certainty, and is the less favored outcome at this time.

Irvin DFA, Blake Hunt called up https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-designate-cole-irvin-for-assignment.html

One more trade - picked up Slater from the Reds https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-acquire-austin-slater.html And a bullpen arm from the Phillies https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-gregory-soto.html

Orioles have traded for Eloy Jimenez from the White Sox https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/white-sox-trade-eloy-jimenez-orioles.html

Orioles acquire Rogers from the Marlins for Norby and Stowers https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-trevor-rogers.html

12z Euro has a likely hurricane recurving out to sea at 240... but it's near NC/SC

You get Eflin for now The Orioles are acquiring right-hander Zach Eflin from the Rays, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on X. The Rays will receive three prospects in the deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X. They are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-zach-eflin-from-rays.html#google_vignette

Trade by the Orioles https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-phillies-swap-austin-hays-for-seranthony-dominguez.html

That storm near DC was been hooky on Radarscope earlier

Pop up heavy shower here

Huh... surprised to see the TOR possible tag on that severe warned storm in W MD

Nice moderate rain showers here right now

I'm assuming that @Jrlg1181 got rained on As well as @EastCoast NPZ

Right on cue as the watch went up lol BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... North central Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northern Page County in northwestern Virginia... Southern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Timberville, or 17 miles north of Harrisonburg, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Woodstock, Luray, Broadway, Timberville, Mount Jackson, Basye-Bryce Mountain, New Market, Basye, Edinburg, Maurertown, Tunis, Kings Crossing, Shenandoah Caverns, Yankeetown, Alonzaville, Hamburg, Quicksburg, Fairview, Bergton, and Saint Davids Church. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 10pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Central and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over the mountains of western Virginia. These storms will track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Baltimore MD to 10 miles southwest of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

SPC MCD sounds completely opposite to what LWX wrote in their AFD above

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will slowly cross the area through tonight bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Cool high pressure builds back into the area from the north Thursday as the front sinks south and east of region. The front will remain stalled to our south Friday before retreating back to the north this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 18Z, a small shortwave/vortmax (remnant MCV feature) was moving across the Appalachians in eastern WV up into SW PA. Surface winds, albeit light, have occasionally backed to the SE over portions of the Shenandoah Valley, indicative of enhanced cyclonic flow around this feature. Guidance seems to be underdoing the effects of this MCV, so anticipate a bit better low-level convergence and mid-level shear as it progresses east. This will likely result in a rapidly developing band of thunderstorms over eastern WV over the foothills west of I-81 by mid afternoon. This band of storms should then progress E/NE crossing the Blue Ridge around 4 PM, then entering the metros around 5-6 PM. These storms may further be enhanced along and in the lee of a pressure trough that arcs from northern DE southwest to near Charlottesville; higher CAPE exists east of this boundary as of 18Z. The main threat with this activity given meager mid-level lapse rates is damaging wind gusts, with a conditional risk for an isolated tornado where surface winds become sufficiently backed to the SE ahead of the MCV, or east of the surface pressure trough. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is possible this evening as the synoptic cold front (currently over OH/northwest PA) pushes in. Interaction between the surface trough, MCV, and cold front could result in multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the I-95 corridor into southern MD. With ample moisture in place (PWs rising to over 2" by evening), this supports the ongoing Flood Watch for potential flash flooding. Rainfall rates under the heaviest storms could approach 2-3 inches per hour, with localized/isolated totals under repeated storms possibly approaching 5 or 6 inches.

MCD out for extreme N MD

94 at BWI and IAD, 95 at DCA at noon

10 am temps DCA 92 BWI 89 IAD 90