yoda

Last call for severe tomorrow? MRGL risk up west of the Blue Ridge from SPC for Day 2 Morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... This is my seventh night shift, and I feel like this amplified upper level pattern has changed this weekend`s forecast a little bit each day. For Saturday, the low remains off the coast and high pressure remains to the north. However, now there appears to be a bit more defined low and frontal pattern that approaches from the Great Lakes combined with a shortwave in northwest flow aloft. The warm sector will feature highs in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. This will aid in developing some instability, so showers and thunderstorms should develop with the approaching forcing. Most models suggest decent coverage (40-60 percent) starting midday west of the Blue Ridge and then spreading east during the afternoon and evening. While instability will be somewhat modest, shear of 30-40 kt is forecast by some guidance. This could result in some organized storms that could produce hail and localized wind damage. Right now the greatest chance for severe weather appears to be west of I-95, where storms are most likely during peak heating (along with slightly higher instability). While storms should weaken some as they push east, there does appear to be enough forcing for showers and isolated storms to last well into the night.

Or the 18z GFS goofy solution of a strong TS into W FL near Tampa and then right up Eastern Seaboard into New England

At 993mb... so probably just a TS

Then rakes the SE coastline from JAX to HSE

12z CMC is into W LA. 12z GFS is only 500 miles NE of where it was at 06z at 225/228. Headed into W FL north of Tampa. Comes off E FL coast near JAX at 240. Stays far enough offshore, but SE coastline from FL to NC gets raked

DFA way too late https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/09/orioles-designate-craig-kimbrel-for-assignment.html

True, but I think this is the first time we have seen this type of solution. I believe we are getting towards a "storm will be happening"... the question is strength and track.

Not sure I buy the 36 hour cutoff idea on the GFS as it sits off the GA/FL coast before finally deciding to skedaddle NE and out to sea

12z CMC is a nice hit on the 27th into the 28th Though 12z CMC is driving 80kt 850mb winds across the region at 222 with low 980s SLP in WV

I'll take the 06z GFS day 8-10... 50 to 70kt 850mb wind speed for 12 hours with heavy rain... probably tornado threat since we are on the eastern side... and SLP in the 985-990mb range

00z CMC at the end of its run sure would be interesting up here. 00z GFS looked interesting too even though it went up the eastern seaboard and stayed to our east

Huh? It does, nearly 3" worth

12z Euro is a big hit rain wise... 2-3" up to the i66 corridor... 4-7" in the in the southern and SW portions of the LWX CWA. Showers continue through Friday

12z CMC is a pretty big hit... 2-6". 12z GFS is decent... but less QPF. 12z ICON is nice for the drought stricken region of the SW portion of the LWX CWA - 3-5" down there, 1-3" elsewhere

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over Arkansas. 1. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Reinhart

Pretty decent hits on the 00z CMC, NAM, and GFS. 00z ICON I think would be the worst hit of the 00z suite ETA - 00z Euro agrees

00z GFS would bring some fun to the region next Tuesday into early Wednesday

Funny... cause NHC basically wrote it off in the 2am TWO 1.. Near the Northern Leeward Islands (AL94): Satellite-derived wind data from several hours ago indicate that a small area of low pressure located less than one hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has degenerated into a surface trough. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

92L is gone from the 2pm TWO... 94L is running out of time 1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry air near the system could limit additional development over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

92L and 94L basically went to 0... so TD 7 is going to be the only game in town in the Atlantic for the foreseeable future

12z GFS is pretty much a miss, 12z CMC gets heavy rain into most of the region early next week - Monday into Tuesday

Is this early out there? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1235 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024 VAZ503-WVZ505-080615- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0005.240908T0600Z-240908T1300Z/ Western Highland-Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Hightown and Riverton 1235 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Looks like nothing at 5pm from NHC

FYI

Ah okay. I hope you are doing well though. Miss your posts in this forum. Hope all is going well outside of here