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18z GFS has Debby in W GA at 126

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 538 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0445 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Hume 38.83N 78.00W 08/03/2024 Fauquier VA Emergency Mngr County emergency manager reported numerous trees down, a roof blown off a house and a shed collapsed in the area of Hume Rd and Leeds Manor Rd, and northeast towards I-66. && Event Number LWX2403697

Sounds like Hume in Fauquier county got smoked

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oatlands, or near Brambleton, moving east at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Broadlands, Lansdowne, Brambleton, Ashburn, Sterling, Countryside, Arcola, Oatlands, Belmont, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across eastern Loudoun County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3907 7746 3907 7740 3905 7737 3901 7737 3895 7744 3893 7762 3902 7765 3910 7748 TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 254DEG 31KT 3897 7765 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 520 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... East central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... South central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 520 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Round Hill to near Brambleton to near Warrenton, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Leesburg, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Poolesville, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Great Falls, Bull Run, Countryside, Purcellville, Haymarket, and Middleburg.

Don't think I've seen a warning inside a warning before

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 500 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 15 miles north of Warrenton, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR DELAPLANE, MIDDLEBURG, AND ALDIE. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Middleburg, Marshall, Saint Louis, Aldie, Halfway, and Rectortown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across Delaplane, Middleburg, and Aldie. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3887 7790 3896 7793 3907 7765 3890 7759 TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 251DEG 34KT 3893 7786 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region. A combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby. The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S. trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand, the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Debby is here BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 83.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * The Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 258 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 VAC043-107-WVC037-031930- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-240803T1930Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Jefferson WV- 258 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...EASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 258 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Purcellville, or 9 miles southeast of Charles Town, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Emergency Manager Reported. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Lovettsville, Hamilton, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Neersville, Lucketts, Millville, Lincoln, Hughesville, and Taylorstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing wind damage across northwestern Loudoun County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3908 7784 3931 7781 3932 7767 3930 7762 3930 7757 3918 7750 3917 7752 3915 7753 3913 7753 3904 7762 TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 270DEG 18KT 3919 7773 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Northeast Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

12z GFS/CMC/ICON all have impacts from Debby in the region

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and pressure field could still be a little elongated within the southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations. The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5. The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande and on the Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the remainder of the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER CUBA 24H 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Some of the 12z EPS individual members brought impacts from Debby into the region

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest impacts. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend. 4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

Probably will tomorrow

Wonder if this is near him Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0257 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NW Stephens City 39.11N 78.23W 08/01/2024 Frederick VA Trained Spotter A couple trees and large branches down on Hampstead Drive and Dandridge Boulevard. && Event Number LWX2403631

He'll claim it missed him