yoda

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Northeast Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

12z GFS/CMC/ICON all have impacts from Debby in the region

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and pressure field could still be a little elongated within the southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations. The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5. The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande and on the Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the remainder of the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER CUBA 24H 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Some of the 12z EPS individual members brought impacts from Debby into the region

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest impacts. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend. 4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

Probably will tomorrow

Wonder if this is near him Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0257 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NW Stephens City 39.11N 78.23W 08/01/2024 Frederick VA Trained Spotter A couple trees and large branches down on Hampstead Drive and Dandridge Boulevard. && Event Number LWX2403631

He'll claim it missed him

12z CMC is fast... 97L is gone by next Thursday out into the Atlantic

I know it's probably not the best tropical model, but 12z CMC would be a little interesting next Tuesday into Wednesday with 97L around here

Maybe some intrigue tomorrow? From morning AFD from LWX Friday`s high temperatures look similar to Thursday, with a bit of uncertainty should any cloud debris from upstream be a little thicker than currently anticipated. Humidity/Tds look higher, though, which should more than offset any slight temperature deviations. Heat index values of 105-110 are likely for most east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, with 100-105 for the lower elevations to the west during the afternoon. There should be some more clouds Saturday which may lower temps/heat indices a bit, but very hot and humid conditions will continue regardless. The combination of the hot, humid, and unstable airmass as well as modestly increasing flow and height falls associated with the approaching trough/surface cold front lend to the potential of somewhat more widespread and organized severe weather. Some guidance (00Z CMC, NAM12, NAMNest, ECMWF) have mid-level lapse rates approaching 6.5 C/km Friday afternoon which would further bolster this potential. The main threat with the increased flow and steep low-level lapse rates looks to be damaging wind, but if the mid- level lapse rates can steepen to around or steeper than 6.5 C/km there could be a more notable (albeit marginal) hail threat, too. Upper flow of 50+ kts and low/mid-level flow of 25-35 kts is expected Saturday which could further organize storms into lines or bands and result in a conditional hail threat in addition to wind. Low-level flow looks weaker but more backed on Friday, so a conditional/marginal tornado threat could evolve depending on subtle mesoscale variations which have inherently low predictability a couple days in advance. Increasing PWs to 2+ inches along with the potential for multiple rounds of training storms along and ahead of the slow-moving front may introduce an increasing flood/flash flood threat as well, despite the recent drought conditions. This type of environment could favor rainfall rates of a couple inches in an hour, so any persistent or repeat convection could result in isolated excessive totals and subsequent flooding during this time. The potential for showers and thunderstorms currently looks highest during the typical afternoon/evening time, unless any more organized wave or complex develops and approaches from upstream. This latter scenario is of low certainty, and is the less favored outcome at this time.

Irvin DFA, Blake Hunt called up https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-designate-cole-irvin-for-assignment.html

One more trade - picked up Slater from the Reds https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-acquire-austin-slater.html And a bullpen arm from the Phillies https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-gregory-soto.html

Orioles have traded for Eloy Jimenez from the White Sox https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/white-sox-trade-eloy-jimenez-orioles.html

Orioles acquire Rogers from the Marlins for Norby and Stowers https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-trevor-rogers.html

12z Euro has a likely hurricane recurving out to sea at 240... but it's near NC/SC

You get Eflin for now The Orioles are acquiring right-hander Zach Eflin from the Rays, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on X. The Rays will receive three prospects in the deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X. They are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-zach-eflin-from-rays.html#google_vignette

Trade by the Orioles https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-phillies-swap-austin-hays-for-seranthony-dominguez.html