yoda

STW until 10pm

@weatherwiz Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/northern New York Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 101715Z - 101845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete storms in central New York will encounter increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes as the move northeast the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed north-northeast of Binghamton. With the more dense cloud cover shifting northward, temperatures are beginning to rise into the low to mid 80s F ahead of these storms. Given the favorable storm mode and low-level shear near the warm front (effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 per objective mesoanalysis), the tornado risk with these storms will likely increase over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

The tornado in W NY seems to have been on the ground for a while... I see three separate warnings from BUF with confirmed damaging tor on the ground

Mesoscale Discussion 1569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...South-central Pennsylvania...central Maryland...northern/central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101652Z - 101845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms will pose a threat of mainly damaging winds and a tornado or two. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints are in generally in the low/mid 70s F. Morning observed soundings from the region suggest even limited heating would lead to surface-based destabilization. Current surface observations already show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F which should be sufficient. Visible satellite shows a few updrafts beginning to deepen within the Blue Ridge. Modest mid-level ascent will occur this afternoon, particularly for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. Coupled with the approach of a cold front from the west, widely scattered to scattered storms are expected. The greatest potential for supercells will be in south-central Pennsylvania into central Maryland/northern Virginia where effective shear will be 35-40 kts. Farther south, multicells will be the predominant mode. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard this afternoon. A low-end tornado threat will also be present for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania, where low-level shear will be slightly greater nearer to the surface low. This is also supported by KCCX/KLWX VAD data. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, though uncertainty is greater with southern extent. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

Watch coming soon

Updated morning AFD from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stout inversion just off the surface this morning has led to widespread low stratus across Central to Northern VA as warm air advects atop this layer. Increasing southerly winds through the day will eventually mix out these clouds by around noon time. Still on track for hot and very humid conditions this afternoon, with peak heat indices of 100-105 west of the Blue Ridge, and 105-110 to the east. Heat Advisories continue for most of the area, with Excessive Heat Warnings along the I-95 urban corridor from Baltimore to Fredericksburg into Southern MD. The continued evolution of the parameter space this evening continues to favor the development of a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front sweeping through the area. Aided by subtle mid-level height falls, lee troughing east of the Blue Ridge, and abundant instability given the high heat/humidity will favor an increasing risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across northern VA into northern MD (I-66 north to the MD/PA border). Damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat. A tornado or two is also possible, especially in north-central MD where 25-30 kts of 0-1 and 0-3 km shear are present. As for thunderstorm timing, expect convection to begin to bubble over areas just east of Alleghenies (ahead of the dry slot) early to mid-afternoon before advancing toward the I-81 corridor and Blue Ridge around 20-22z/4-6pm. Beyond this point convection continues east toward the metros between 22-2z/6-10pm. Convection gradually wanes before midnight with any severe threat wrapping up after sunset. Convection looks to be fairly progressive with most of the guidance either forming a line or a combination of multicellular clusters. Even with that said, any thunderstorms that due form will be efficient rain producers given PWAT values upwards of 2.2 inches.

Morning update from SPC now has SLGT risk from i66 corridor in N VA and north... MRGL down to Richmond 2/0/15 for the SLGT

Yay more EHWs! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 459 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-VAZ053>055-057-527-101700- /O.UPG.KLWX.HT.Y.0009.240710T1600Z-240711T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0005.240710T1600Z-240711T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 459 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 110 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia, and portions of the northern neck of Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very warm and humid conditions will persist into the overnight hours. Ensure to stay hydrated and find ways to stay cool.

I just want some thunderstorms please

@weatherwiz chasing in NY today? 10% tor probs

Large tornado on the ground west of Evansville in Indiana Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 430 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 INC051-129-092200- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0117.000000T0000Z-240709T2200Z/ Gibson IN-Posey IN- 430 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN GIBSON AND NORTHEASTERN POSEY COUNTIES... At 429 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Mount Vernon, moving north at 25 mph. This storm has a history of producing a large tornado. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Poseyville, New Harmony, and Blairsville around 435 PM CDT. Cynthiana around 445 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Griffin. This includes Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 5 and 17.

Sneaky severe threat tomorrow? SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Beryl are expected to pass well to the north across the Great Lakes into New England. However, some of the enhanced synoptic flow may extend southward into the local area. This would be able to interact with the persistent hot, humid, and unstable thermodynamic environment. With that said, the atmosphere is certainly ripe for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Along or just ahead of a cold front, the latest high-resolution guidance favors a later show than usual with a north/south band of convection pushing eastward to around I-95 by the early/mid evening. This should continue a slow but steady march eastward to the Chesapeake Bay before exiting after midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most locations up to a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The current exceptions would be the Allegheny Mountains and far southern Maryland. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, but a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled, especially for the more northern locations. Vertical shear is a bit stronger coupled with decent cyclonically curved low-level hodographs. Any threat for severe thunderstorms should halt by the overnight hours.

Looks like some random showers and thunderstorms developing across the region. Good luck getting under one

12pm 95/68 at DCA 95/71 at BWI 91/68 at IAD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ036>040-050-051-053- 054-501-502-505-506-526-527-051900- /O.CON.KLWX.HT.Y.0005.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock- Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 109 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and northern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-051900- /O.UPG.KLWX.HT.Y.0005.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0002.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Including the cities of St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 112 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Charles, St. Marys and Calvert Counties. In Virginia, Stafford, Spotsylvania and King George Counties. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

True. I think Ian usually gets awesome pics

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>056-527-042000- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0005.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.HT.Y.0004.240704T1600Z-240705T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 352 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...For the first Heat Advisory, heat index values between 100 to 105 expected. For the second Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 107 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...For the first Heat Advisory, from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. For the second Heat Advisory, from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday.

I think more it's because it's 4th of July and tons of people will be out and about all afternoon and evening

Heat Advisory for the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>056-527-040400- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0004.240704T1600Z-240705T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values around 100 to 105 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The combination of air temperatures in the 90s and high humidity will result in the potential for increased heat-related illnesses, especially those partaking in outdoor Independence Day activities

Damn. Congrats to him https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/40474265/quincy-wilson-16-becomes-youngest-us-male-track-olympian

Everybody on deck Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1110 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL STRONGER... Satellite imagery and Barbados radar data indicate that the eye of Beryl has made landfall on Carriacou Island at 1110 AM AST (1510 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 950 mb (28.05 inches). SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Kelly/Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Mesoscale Discussion 1489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC/VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301611Z - 301815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next couple of hours, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the region withing the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Portions of northern VA into MD/DE continue to experience greater cloud cover at midday due to earlier day convection. The airmass across this area has been slower to recover as heating has been somewhat slower than surrounding areas. Instability increases with southward extent, and to the east of a surface trough, across southeast VA into northeast NC. With time, much of the region should achieve moderate to strong destabilization given surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s/low 90s F. Vertical shear will be strongest (around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) across northern VA/MD/DE, while decreasing with southward extent into NC. Convection may first develop in the uncapped and moderately unstable airmass near the surface trough across parts of NC into southeast VA. As airmass recovery continues across northern portions of the MCD area, additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of northern VA and shift east through late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk of damaging gusts, with potentially some better organized/more intense bowing segments possible further north where better shear overlaps the moderately unstable airmass. Regardless, portions of the MCD area will likely need severe thunderstorm watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1489.html

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 1000 PM EDT. * At 929 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Frederick, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, Walkersville, Braddock Heights, New Market, Discovery-Spring Garden, Green Valley, Clover Hill, Linganore-Bartonsville, Libertytown, Monrovia, Ijamsville, Bloomfield, Mount Pleasant, Clifton, Middletown In Frederick Md, and Unionville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3950 7712 3950 7711 3948 7712 3946 7712 3943 7713 3942 7715 3941 7715 3936 7717 3935 7718 3929 7731 3942 7756 3953 7747 TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 290DEG 22KT 3943 7739 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH